Putin says all of Ukraine belongs to Russia, a key Belarusian prisoner is released, and Poland mulls a total recount of its election

June 18-23, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Jun 24, 2025

Siarhei Tsikhanouski reuniting with his wife, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (Screenshot via Associated Press/YouTube)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Putin claimed “all of Ukraine is ours” while striking Kyiv as NATO prepared to host first summit under Trump’s second administration

Amid dramatic events in Iran and Israel, Ukraine was noticeably absent from headlines last week, even as Zelensky and other leaders prepared for this year’s NATO summit at The Hague in the Netherlands — the first one since Trump’s second inauguration. Zelensky will attend the summit in hopes of speaking directly with Trump, having been robbed of a meeting at the G7 summit in Canada which Trump departed from early to focus on Iran. Yet when asked about plans to meet the Ukrainian president, the White House instead stated that its focus would be on getting members to commit to spending 5% of GDP on defense. Nevertheless, NATO chief Mark Rutte stated on Monday that Ukraine’s path to NATO accession is irreversible — despite opposition not only from Trump, but also from leaders in Poland, Hungary, and beyond. Meanwhile, Putin underscored just how uninterested he had become in any semblance of a peace process when, at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, he restated Russia’s maximalist position in the war, and added that he would not rule out a capture of the Ukrainian city of Sumy, which has been the target of Russian advances for weeks. "I have said many times that I consider the Russian and Ukrainian people to be one nation,” Putin said. “In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours." These comments came as Russian missiles continued to rain down on Ukrainian cities, killing 14 civilians in the country, and at least 9 in Kyiv itself.

Why it matters: As Trump visibly steps back from the Ukraine-Russia talks, Putin is growing bolder, seeing little sense in upholding the pretense that Russia is still interested in a peace on American terms. This is especially as Trump and a growing number of Europeans are shifting their attention away from the War in Ukraine itself to the management of security on the European continent, which Trump has long seen as a liability for the US. Despite Rutte’s statements to the contrary, Ukraine’s hopes of NATO accession remain very distant, and are unlikely to become reality as long as Trump remains in office — and even if Trump agrees to meet Zelensky in the Netherlands, there is little chance that Trump will refocus his attention on the conflict. What all of this means is that Zelensky and the Europeans will need to get much more creative if Ukraine wants to survive the next 3.5 years and if Eastern Europe as a whole wants to be ready for the Russian aggression yet to come.

2. After Trump envoy Kellogg’s visit, Belarus released 14 political prisoners, including the husband of the Belarusian opposition head

Trump envoy Keith Kellogg’s visit to Belarus last week, the first such trip by a high-ranking US official in five years since Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s crackdown on the country’s opposition in 2020, generated the predictable scenes of camaraderie between Kellogg and the Belarusian leader — including a chummy video put out by Lukashenko showing Kellogg hugging the dictator. But optics aside, the meeting resulted in the dramatic release of 14 Belarusian political prisoners — including most notably Siarhei Tsikhanouski, the Belarusian activist who was jailed in 2020 for attempting to run against Lukashenko in that year’s presidential election. Following his arrest, his wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, became the leader of the democratic Belarusian opposition, and competed in the 2020 election in his place. At a tearful press conference following his release, Tsikhanouski urged Trump to continue advocating for the release of political prisoners in Belarus, and with a raised fist, called on Belarusians to resist the Lukashenko regime. “I want to say to all Belarusians - if you were waiting for a symbol, this is it.”

Why it matters: Siarhei Tsikhanouski’s release is a highly symbolic move by Lukashenko, and is the highest profile prisoner release to come out of the Russian world since the prisoner exchange that led to American journalist Evan Gershkovich’s release last year. The gesture however has not come without a price — and it is likely the US will have had to offer Lukashenko something more than just visibly legitimizing his regime to secure this diplomatic win. Even though at this stage there has been no indication that the US is ready to drop sanctions against Lukashenko that have been in place since 2020, it’s not impossible an announcement to this effect may take place in the coming days and weeks, especially with the world distracted by events in the Middle East. Kellogg’s visit to Minsk also implicitly highlights the failure of Trump’s peace talks in Ukraine, especially if, as reported, the administration’s outreach to Belarus aims to use the country’s position to reach a breakthrough in Ukraine’s negotiations with Russia. It’s unclear what role Trump and Kellogg believe Belarus might be able to play — but what’s certain is that there is much more going on behind the scenes than meets the eye.

3. Polish leaders called for a total recount of the presidential election amid various irregularities, leading Nawrocki and Tusk to trade barbs

Over three weeks since the second round of voting in Poland’s presidential election which saw conservative Karol Nawrocki emerge victorious, a partial recount of seven polling stations found irregularities that gave Nawrocki more votes than he should have received. Although the number of votes included in the partial recount are far fewer than the amount necessary to overturn the election, there were 50,000 total voting complaints which still need to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court. Beyond these complaints though, it appears irregularities may go far beyond the seven precincts already investigated — at one polling place in Kraków, long a stronghold for Tusk and his party, Nawrocki won by a landslide, increasing the usual share of conservative votes by 500%. Such inconsistencies have led Polish senators and Prime Minister Donald Tusk himself to call for a total recount of the vote. “It may be necessary to recount all votes,” Tusk said on Friday. In response, Nawrocki called on Tusk not to “destroy democracy” by triggering a recount.

Why it matters: If the results of the Polish election are overturned, it would be an enormous upset for conservatives in Poland, potentially reigniting tensions in a country already polarized along political lines. Romania’s cancelled election in 2024 showed how deeply such a shift can undermine trust not only in national electoral systems, but in European institutions as a whole — and given how much larger and more impactful Poland is on the European stage, a reversal of the official result there would be several times more consequential. But even if the result stands, a recount would likely expose enormous holes in the Polish electoral system that could readily be exploited by Russia and its allies to undermine the country’s democracy. For a state on the rise in Europe, electoral integrity should be of paramount importance for Poland, especially as countries across the region see it as an example to follow.

4. Hackers linked to Iran’s IRGC launched a cyberattack against Albania’s capital due to the country hosting anti-regime dissidents

Homeland Justice, a group that reportedly has ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, carried out a cyberattack against the Albanian capital Tirana, shutting the city’s website down and disrupting transportation services. The group apparently conducted the attack in response to Albania’s hosting of Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), a controversial group opposed to the Iranian regime that was previously considered a terrorist group by the US and other Western countries until 2013. Homeland Justice warned that its attack was “just the beginning,” threatening to release data about government employees and the details of Tirana residents’ personal information.

Why it matters: Albania has faced pressure from Iranian groups for years due to its hosting of MEK, but this latest cyberattack underscores how globalized the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the US could become. Eastern Europe especially has connections to the Iranian battle space — aside from Albania, Ukraine notably is facing attacks on a weekly basis by Shahed drones, which despite now being produced largely in Russia, are Iranian-designed. More broadly though, the attack on Albania underscores how unprepared the country is for hybrid warfare — something it must urgently repair if it hopes to weather pressure not just from Iran, but also from Russia and China in the multi-polar European landscape that lies ahead.

5. Latvia banned Russian and Belarusian citizens from purchasing property in the country in its most dramatic anti-Russian move yet

Latvia’s parliament voted on Thursday to ban citizens of Russia and Belarus from being able to buy real estate in Latvia, marking the most serious move yet against Russian nationals in the country so far. The law also extends to businesses that are 25% owned by Russian and Belarusian nationals, but makes exceptions for Belarusian refugees and permanent residence holders. The move comes soon after Latvia launched an investigation into a pro-Russian politician after an outburst in favor of Russian identity in parliament, which I covered in last week’s issue here.

Why it matters: As a vulnerable frontline Baltic state in NATO with a sizable ethnic Russian population, Latvia has every reason to be worried about Russian infiltration and hybrid warfare, and it is no coincidence that it is quickly emerging as one of the most hardline states against Russian and Belarusian influence. While moves like this one will protect it against Russian efforts to destabilize the country through individual hired saboteurs and proxies, it may also make the country a larger target in the eyes of the Kremlin — something that Latvia is likely also preparing for.

The Eastern Flank

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