Last Week in Eastern Europe: May 13-19, 2024
Slovakia's PM Fico was shot in an assassination attempt, Georgia passed its Russian-inspired foreign agent law, and Ukraine held back Russian forces with US munitions
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was critically wounded in an assassination attempt, magnifying deep political divides in Slovakia
Slovak PM Robert Fico, who had opposed military aid to Ukraine and developed close ties to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, was shot by a lone gunman after a government meeting in the town of Handlova on Wednesday, leaving him in critical condition which has stabilized over the following days. On Sunday, Slovakia’s Interior Minister stated the assassin may not have been a “lone wolf” as previously suspected.
Why it matters: The attack, which was the first assassination attempt on a sitting European political leader in two decades, comes at a time of intense political polarization in Slovakia, which has been amplified in the days following the shooting. Politicians from Fico’s populist party blamed both the media and the opposition for the attack, leading media organizations like RTVS, with Fico had recently moved to dismantle, to receive death threats. The attack has also been fodder for Kremlin propaganda, with Russian talking heads predictably suggesting Ukraine was behind the attack, even though no evidence of any kind has connected Ukraine to the shooting. While the Slovak Interior Minister’s claim last week that the attack left the country on the cusp of “civil war” were a tad extreme, it is likely it will exacerbate divisions in the country even further, and the government may use it to further limit diminishing press freedom in the country.
2. Georgia’s government approved its Russian-inspired foreign agent law, and is expected to override the president’s veto of the law
On Tuesday, Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party officially approved its controversial foreign agent law that will require NGOs and media outlets receiving 20% or more of their funding from overseas to register as agents of foreign influence in the country. On Saturday, Georgia’s pro-EU President Salome Zourabichvili said she had vetoed the legislation, but because Georgian Dream is widely expected to overrule her veto as soon as May 28, her opposition will likely be purely symbolic, and protests will probably continue over the coming weeks. This comes as the US Congress considered a bill that would freeze assets and put in place travel bans for Georgian politicians who pushed for the foreign agent law.
Why it matters: Georgia’s foreign agent law is widely understood to inspired by a similar law in Russia that has been used to crack down on its liberal opposition, and streets protestors in Georgia, together with President Zourabichvili, fear it will used for similar ends in their country. The law is broadly understood to be an effort by Georgian Dream to pull the country into Russia’s orbit, and the latest US bill is evidence of just how far the party’s actions have isolated Georgia from its backers in Europe and the West. An article I published in UnHerd today dives deeper into what Georgia’s tilt toward Russia will mean for Europe, the war in Ukraine, and beyond.
3. Ukraine held back Russian forces in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts with new US ammunition as US Sec. of State Blinken visited Kyiv
New ammunition supplies approved by the US for Ukraine last month have finally arrived on the country’s frontlines, reportedly allowing Ukrainian troops to hold back Russian advances toward the town of Chasiv Yar to the west of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. Meanwhile in Kharkiv Oblast, Russia’s recently launched offensive slowed as it encountered Ukrainian defenses further from the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the Institute for the Study of War suggested Russia was likely more interested in creating a buffer zone within Ukrainian territory than penetrating more deeply into the oblast. Russian strikes in Kharkiv however killed 11 people in the region last week, and despite a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kyiv on Tuesday to reassure Ukraine of America’s support, the US continued to prohibit the use of American weapons against enemy positions on Russian territory itself.
Why it matters: Ukraine’s ability to make the most of its new ammunition supplies from the US bodes well for its fortunes in the coming months, and it appears likely they will be able to resist Russian advances in the Donbas and in Kharkiv without stretching its forces too thin. The continued US ban on using American weapons to strike Russia itself is posing an increasing obstacle to Kyiv’s success however, and Ukraine has been forced to rely primarily on drones to strikes positions and infrastructure in Russia this past week. If the US continues to stick to this policy, Ukraine’s ability to recapture territory in meaningful ways in 2024 may be limited.
4. Poland announced it will invest $2.5 billion to strengthen its borders with Russia and Belarus
Poland’s government announced plans to spend $2.5 billion to improve the security of its eastern and northeastern borders with Russia and Belarus on Saturday. Although he provided few details, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated new improvements would include “a system of fortifications as well as landscaping and environmental decisions” that would prevent any enemy from crossing onto Polish and NATO territory. Tusk also mentioned he would meet with the European Investment Bank this week to discuss financing of over $127 million for the satellite portion of the European Sky Shield Initiative, a defense project comparable to Israel’s Iron Dome.
Why it matters: After the Belarusian and Russian governments fomented a migrant crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border starting in 2021, Poland’s previous ruling party built a metal wall along the border complete with a variety of cameras and sensors, and Tusk’s new expansions would likely make Poland’s eastern border one of the most heavily fortified on the European continent. Questions remain about how much these fortifications would help Poland deal with increasingly brazen acts of sabotage that Russia has been cultivating in Poland over the last several months which have not relied on any sort of cross-border activity. Additionally, Tusk’s government has failed to address concerns about how these border fortifications would impact refugees and migrants who continue to be forced into border crossing attempts by Belarusian border guards, often ending up trapped on the Belarusian side of the border wall.
5. Jared Kushner has received approval to redevelop a politically-charged historic site in Serbia into a luxury hotel complex
After years of negotiating going back to 2013, Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner received permission from the Serbian government to develop a $500 million luxury hotel in Belgrade on the site of a former Yugoslav Ministry of Defense building that served as a symbol of the NATO bombing of the city in 1999. Despite promises of transparency, the process has been closed to the press.
Why it matters: The building Kushner’s company will be redeveloping is a former army intelligence center that was bombed during NATO’s air campaign during the Kosovo War in 1999, during which the Serbian government mounted an attack on Kosovo, massacring ethnic Kosovar Albanians. Not only has the project faced criticism from Serbs for aiming to demolish a historic reminder of the NATO campaign, but it has also been suspected to serve as a pathway for the Serbian government of President Aleksandar Vučić to gain favor with Trump in the event of Trump’s return to office.
Other trends to watch:
— Following increasing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, Belarus has reportedly started ramping up fuel assistance to Russia, with former Wagner members providing protection for such fuel shipments on Belarusian territory.
— Moldova announced it will hold its presidential election and its long-anticipated referendum on EU membership on October 20. The pro-Western Moldovan government has previously warned that Russia is likely planning ways to sabotage these elections and to destabilize Moldova via the Moscow-backed territory of Transnistria, which recently asked Putin for aid.
— Seeking to secure a place on the Council of Europe despite Serbian opposition, Kosovo offered to grant some autonomy to ethnic Serbs in its north, where tensions between Serbs and the Kosovo government have been simmering for over a year.
— Hungary has stated it will vote against a UN resolution commemorating the Srebrenica genocide in Bosnia in 1995, claiming it will destabilize the Balkan region. Hungary’s foreign minister hosted Milorad Dodik, the Putin-allied leader of Bosnia’s Serbs, who is the resolution’s primary opponent.
— Latvian security forces detained two people suspected of passing information on to Russia on Monday.