Zelensky reacts to Trump's peace plan, Ukraine gains limited air superiority, and Estonia's PM becomes the top EU diplomat
June 24-30 in Eastern Europe
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What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Zelensky condemned Trump’s Ukraine peace plan and stated he is working on his own detailed initiative to end the war with Russia
In Kyiv on Friday, Zelensky stated his office is working to create a “comprehensive” peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, revealing few details other than it must be one that the majority of the world will support. Concurrently, Zelensky officially responded to a plan presented to him by advisors to Donald Trump that included giving up Ukrainian territory to Russia, calling it a “bad idea.” The plan is the most detailed one yet proposed by Trump’s circle, and would condition military aid to Ukraine based on its participation in peace negotiations while also incentivizing Russia to participate by threatening aid to Ukraine if it refuses. Crucially, it would include freezing the war along current lines of control — a non-starter for Ukraine.
Why it matters: With the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and Trump’s increasingly likely return to the White House, Zelensky understands that the timeline for the war’s resolution is unfortunately growing shorter as the West’s appetite for supporting Ukraine’s war effort continues to dwindle. As a Trump victory grows more probable, Zelensky is likely trying to walk a fine line between rejecting Trump’s peace initiative outright and avoiding antagonizing a future US leader. Nevertheless, the plan is as clear an indication as any that the political winds are slowly turning against Ukraine across the West, meaning Zelensky will have to make many difficult choices in the medium-term.
2. Ukraine pushed to extend permissions to use long-range missiles in Russia, establishing local air superiority along the Russian border
Having received the green light from the US and various European powers to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory in the Kharkiv theater, Ukraine’s Zelensky pressed allies to extend these permissions in order to strike Russian airfields and other military targets, calling for additional air defenses as Russia pummeled small towns like Vilniansk. In Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast however, near the Russian border, Ukraine has been able to establish air power parity or arguably even localized air superiority after destroying Russian air defenses in the vicinity. This comes as military leaders reported that Russia lost an average of 1,000 soldiers per day in the month of May across Ukraine.
Why it matters: Despite being highly local in context, Ukraine’s success on the ground and in the air in Vovchansk showcases the dividends that Western weapons and permissions to extend Ukraine’s defense into Russia itself have given Kyiv in its fight in Kharkiv Oblast, and the steep cost of Russian assaults there and along the rest of the front. If previous patterns are any indication, it is likely only a matter of time before Zelensky receives the green light to use longer-range weapons to strike at Russian airfields deeper in the country.
3. Estonian PM Kaja Kallas was named the EU’s new chief foreign diplomat and will lead the bloc’s foreign policy
Estonia’s fiery Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who has made a name for herself on the European stage as an opponent of Russian influence, will become the EU’s top diplomat, succeeding Josep Borrell. Kallas, who was previously the highest ranking European politician to be placed on the Kremlin’s wanted list, will step down from her post as PM to be replaced by Estonia’s climate minister Kristen Michal.
Why it matters: Kallas’s appointment is a clear signal that, despite growing divisions within the EU and rise of right-wing parties across the continent that are skeptical of European support for Ukraine, the bloc will continue to pursue a hard line against Russian in its foreign affairs. Kallas’s impact will be felt far beyond Ukraine in Georgia and Armenia, which are both at major crossroads when it comes to their relationships with the EU and Russia, as well as in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where the EU has come to play a more prominent role under Borrell.
4. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán formed a new right-wing alliance in the EU Parliament, hoping to become the largest bloc on the European right
Ahead of the start of the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council in July, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán presented a new alliance with Austrian and Czech right-wing parties in the European Parliament in hopes of creating the largest nationalist coalition in the legislature. Poland’s Law and Justice Party, which yielded power to the country’s current ruling Civic Coalition party last year, is reportedly considering joining Orbán’s coalition, despite their divergence on Russia and Ukraine policy. The new grouping faces considerable obstacles however, as they need to attract members from at least four other EU countries to officially formulate a parliamentary group.
Why it matters: Despite being a black sheep in the EU, Orbán’s influence is likely to grow following right-wing parties’ recent victories in the EU elections in June and the National Rally’s surge in France, especially given that Hungary will control the presidency of the Council of the EU this month. Right-wing parties in the European Parliament are currently split between several different groupings, and a new coalition that aims to unite them would significantly upend the political status quo in the EU. Yet despite being united on some issues like immigration, they radically disagree on others, making Orbán’s goal an ambitious one.
5. A policeman was wounded in an attack on the Israeli embassy in Belgrade which the Serbian government has labeled a terrorist attack
On Saturday, a man armed with a crossbow shot a police officer guarding the Israeli embassy in Belgrade in what Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has called a terrorist attack. The man’s accomplice remained at large however, and Serbian authorities are reportedly investigating the pair’s ties to the hardline Wahhabi sect of Islam. Vučić seemingly connected the attack to the recent UN General Assembly resolution commemorating the genocide of Bosnian Muslims by Serbs at Srebrenica, and claimed that foreign powers were seeking to expand their influence in Serbia.
Why it matters: The attack demonstrates the continuing spillover of Israel’s war in Gaza in Eastern Europe, which, while largely supportive of Israel, has seen significant opposition to the war as well. Yet Vučić’s baseless effort to tie the attack to the UNGA resolution on Srebrenica is another method he is using to unify Serbs around his nationalist narrative of a besieged Serbian nation that only he is equipped to lead.
Other trends to watch:
— Ukraine and Moldova officially started EU accession talks on Tuesday, after receiving permission to do so the previous week.
— Poland has requested French and German assistance to police its border with Belarus while calling on the EU to build a line of defensive infrastructure along the bloc’s entire border with Russia. The migration and security crisis along the Polish-Belarusian border has escalated over the last several months, leading to the killing of a Polish soldier in early June.
— Belarus deployed troops to its border with Ukraine after it accused Ukraine of building up soldiers on its own side of the border to commit acts of sabotage — a claim that has not been independently verified.
— Ukraine has signed a defense pact with the EU, Lithuania, and Estonia.
— A pro-Russian priest has been elected to lead Bulgaria’s Orthodox Church.
— Bulgaria and Romania have failed to meet economic benchmarks necessary to adopt the euro.
— Czechia has sent 50,000 artillery shells to Ukraine as the first part of a multi-country initiative led by Czechia that may send as many as 1.5 million rounds to Ukraine.
— A museum documenting the history of Poland’s LGBTQ community will open in Warsaw this year, marking a first for the country. Poland has been ranked the worst country in the EU for LGBTQ people for several years in a row, especially under the previous ruling right-wing government.