Zelensky offers to meet Putin, a Hungarian spy ring is busted in Ukraine, and Poland signs a landmark treaty with France

May 6-12, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Michał Kranz

May 13, 2025

Polish PM Donald Tusk, British PM Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Kyiv, Ukraine on May 10, 2025 (Number 10 via Wikimedia Commons)

Apologies to all for posting this week’s update so late — thanks for waiting!

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. After Putin rejected a ceasefire plan presented by Ukraine’s allies, Zelensky offered to meet him in Istanbul with Trump’s backing

During a collective meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine over the weekend, PM Keir Starmer of the UK, President Emmanuel Macron of France, and PM Donald Tusk of Poland, along with Zelensky himself, agreed to push Putin to accept a 30-day unconditional ceasefire in the war in Ukraine starting Monday, or face increased sanctions. Very quickly however, despite the Europeans’ urgings, Putin rejected the ceasefire, and instead proposed direct peace talks to end the war in Istanbul this coming Thursday. Rather than backing down however, at Trump’s urging, Zelensky took Putin up on the idea, writing on X that he still expects Putin to abide by the proposed ceasefire and will be waiting for him in Istanbul for a face-to-face meeting — the first of its kind since the start of the war. But even though Putin himself proposed the Istanbul meeting, his government quickly rejected Zelensky’s offer, calling it “political theater” and stating that “High-level meetings… are absolutely not arranged this way.” Trump stated he may personally make the trip to Istanbul, but only if he “thinks things can happen.” Despite the European ceasefire ultimatum however, Russia has continued sending barrages of drones at Ukrainian positions on Sunday night.

Why it matters: Despite initially putting the pressure back on Zelensky in the ongoing back-and-forth of the Trump-backed negotiation efforts, Putin appears to have been caught with his pants down by Zelensky’s insistence that the pair meet in Istanbul, with Trump’s apparent blessing no less. Putin was never going to be interested in accepting an unconditional ceasefire, mainly due to Russia’s longstanding insistence that any ceasefire would allow Ukraine to rearm and retrain its forces, and his proposal to negotiate a final peace to the war was a slight-of-hand to make Zelensky seem like the unreasonable party, especially in Trump’s eyes. Zelensky turned the tables on Putin, putting the ball once again in his court. These events appear to be the death knells of the Trump-backed peace process overall — Putin is unlikely to personally show up in Istanbul and will certainly not accept the ceasefire ultimatum, leaving an impatient Trump with few options besides walking away from the process altogether. Sanctions will be levied, potentially along with US tariffs on Russia’s trade partners, but Putin is unlikely to budge, and the war will continue unabated.

2. Ukraine uncovered a Hungarian spy ring in its western Zakarpattia region studying the viability of a military invasion of the area

Ukraine’s SBU announced on Friday that it had discovered an espionage ring run by Hungarian military intelligence that had been operating in Zakarpattia Oblast, Ukraine’s westernmost region that borders Hungary and has a sizable Hungarian minority. According to authorities, the operatives had been focusing on Ukrainian military vulnerabilities, including anti-aircraft missile systems, the sentiments of the local population, and the likely local reaction to a Hungarian invasion of the region. Hungary has dismissed the Ukrainian claims as “propaganda,” suspended planned talks with Ukraine on the rights of the Hungarian minority in the region, and expelled two Ukrainian diplomats it also claimed had been conducting espionage operations in Budapest. In a dramatic video released by a Hungarian counter-terrorism unit, one of these alleged Ukrainian spies can be seen dragged out of car in downtown Budapest by armed agents. Concurrently, an X account followed by Hungary’s Defense Minister released a video showing an imagined Hungarian invasion of Zakarpattia Oblast.

Why it matters: Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán has long weaponized the living situation of ethnic Hungarians living in Zakarpattia Oblast, which Hungary controlled as part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire prior to World War I and later during Hungary’s alliance with Hitler during the Second World War, in order to put pressure on Ukraine. While Hungary is unlikely to actually launch any kind of military invasion of Ukraine, the spy ring allegations are the most explosive event in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, and if confirmed, would mark a new low for Orbán’s pro-Russian government. The fallout from the event is likely to continue for weeks at minimum, as Ukraine claims it has identified the Hungarian intelligence officer responsible for running the spy ring, putting wind in the sails of efforts to oust Hungary from NATO itself.

3. Poland and France signed a landmark security treaty that includes a commitment to mutual defense in the event of an attack

Poland’s Tusk and France’s Macron signed a major security pact last week that has been described as “groundbreaking” and in effect makes Poland France’s second-closest ally, militarily speaking, after Germany. Although the details of the treaty are still unknown, it includes mutual defense guarantees in the event either country is attacked, builds on existing defense ties the two countries have within NATO and the EU, and deepens their cooperation on space, defense technology, and beyond. Although the treaty does mention jointly developing civilian nuclear capabilities, it does not seem to directly touch on the possibility of France extending its nuclear umbrella to include Poland, as Polish leaders have suggested recently. Macron added that France is now capable of deploying its forces to Poland “within days” in the event of an attack by Russia, claiming that no other country in Europe can currently replicate the speed and capacity of its deployment capabilities to NATO’s east.

Why it matters: With America’s presence in Europe looking increasingly shaky, Poland’s deepening relationship with France is a vital insurance policy against any future Russian aggression, either through a direct attack or through hybrid warfare. Poland announced last week that last year’s fire at Warsaw’s largest shopping center had been the work of the Kremlin, making it clearer than ever that Poland is on the frontlines of Russia’s hybrid operations, which are increasingly difficult to combat since they are easily deniable and fall below the threshold of NATO’s Article V. Although no movement has taken place (at least publicly) on extending France’s nuclear security blanket over Polish soil, the treaty does demonstrate political will by the French side to move in that direction in the near future. Even beyond military matters however, the treaty is yet another indication of Poland’s ever-rising star on the European stage, and cements it as a critical decision-maker on the most important issues facing the continent’s future.

4. Slovakia’s Fico and Serbia’s Vučić attended the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, defying the EU

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Slovakian PM Robert Fico were the only European leaders who flew to Russia to attend the annual Victory Day parade in Moscow that celebrates the USSR’s triumph over Nazi Germany in 1945, in defiance of warnings from the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas. While Vučić’s Serbia is still on its path to joining the EU, Fico’s Slovakia is both a member state a part of the Eurozone. During his visit, Fico once again rejected the EU’s ban on Russian imports and, along with Hungary, rebuffed the bloc’s pledge to phase out such imports by 2027. Thousands of Slovaks in the country’s capital, Bratislava, protested against Fico’s visit.

Why it matters: Although Vučić’s presence at the parade was hardly surprising, Fico’s decision to attend speaks volumes about how deeply pro-Putin his government has become, especially since even his ally Orbán in Hungary took heed to Kallas’s warning and chose not to attend. The more deeply Slovakia entrenches itself within Putin’s orbit not only politically but on the energy front as well, the most isolated it will become in an increasingly polarized Europe.

5. Bucking regional trends, Albanian PM Edi Rama’s party defeated Trump-linked rivals to secure an unprecedented 4th term in office

Albanian PM Edi Rama’s Socialist Party comfortably held onto power this past week, securing a historic fourth term in office for Rama even though his opponents, the center-Right Democratic Party, had hired Chris LaCivita, an American Republican campaign manager responsible for Trump’s 2024 election victory. The win by Rama’s Socialists comes as European Council President António Costa stated that Albania, along with Montenegro, is on track to join the EU ahead of other contenders.

Why it matters: Rama’s win over Trump-linked rivals, at the head of a Left-wing party no less, is very much an exception to recent trends in Eastern Europe, where Right-wing, Trump-linked candidates have done well — most recently in Romania. Rama’s deft use of social media and his claim that he is the only leader who can bring Albania into the EU played an outsize role in his success, and while these are not broadly applicable as methods centrists and Leftists can use against Right-wing populists across the region, Rama’s success nevertheless demonstrates that defeating populists, even those who use MAGA-style campaign tactics, is very much possible in the region.

The Eastern Flank

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