Why Trump’s Greenland ploy matters for Eastern Europe

Poland, Ukraine, and NATO's East see great danger but also great potential in Trump's attempts to force Denmark to give up the island

A New York National Guard LC-130 “Skibird” at Kangerlussuaq, Greenland in 2016 (The National Guard via Flickr)

In the weeks since Donald Trump proposed an American takeover of Greenland, countries in Europe’s East have stayed relatively quiet on the matter.

Although leaders in France and Greenland’s colonial master Denmark have loudly denounced the possibility of the island falling into American hands, Poland’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrzej Szejna said earlier this month that Warsaw wouldn’t take anything Trump says before his inauguration too seriously, while Ukraine’s Zelensky appeared to reference Trump’s move more indirectly, saying “No matter what’s going on in the world, everyone wants to feel sure that their country will not just be erased off the map.”

Behind the scenes though, Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics, and beyond are very much paying attention — for them, the Greenland fiasco is a canary in the coal mine of Trump’s second administration, and in many ways is the first concrete indication of what America First truly looks like in the context of the new Cold War with Russia. While Trump has in many ways been all over the map on Ukraine — hinting at the need for territorial concessions by Kyiv and making overtures to Putin while also reportedly planning to keep American military aid flowing — his move on Greenland offers much more clarity, suggesting that Trump is in fact far from an isolationist and indeed sees Russian expansionism as a national security threat for the US. For while Trump is certainly keen to retreat from conflicts in the Middle East and draw down America’s direct presence in Europe, he appears set on entrenching US power much closer to home through a localized sphere of American domination stretching from Greenland to Latin America. In the new multi-polar world, Trump is already getting busy building his own pole.

In Trump’s mind though, this can only be achieved through unilateral American action to the detriment of whoever stands in his way. For Ukraine, Poland, and other eastern NATO states, this presents both an immense conundrum but also an immense opportunity — if they can convince Trump that continued, but potentially more targeted, US backing will make them a strong first line of defense against Russian threats to Fortress America in the Arctic and beyond, they may be able to hold the line against Moscow and protect their own sovereignty. But what Greenland has revealed to them is that only by making Trump feel he is squarely in control would they be successful, and must otherwise be prepared to get thrown under the bus just like Denmark.

Trump’s willingness to go after a fellow NATO ally in service of a naked land grab is certainly alarming for countries that have long depended on their alliance with the US for their own security. Moreover, the fact that the idea to acquire the island was likely planted in Trump’s head by a fake letter from Greenland’s foreign minister to US Republican Senator Tom Cotton in 2019 — forged by the Russian state according to Danish intelligence — surely gives countries like Poland and Ukraine further pause.

Pituffik Space Base, a US military installation in northwestern Greenland (Via GetArchive)

But its also apparent to them that Trump, at least nominally, shares their concern about Russian imperialism, at least in the Arctic. Greenland’s strategic importance to the US stems not just from its natural resources, but also from the presence of the American Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS) at Pituffik Space Base in the island’s far north, along with tunnel systems that could be used to launch ICBMs — capabilities that can realistically only be meant to counter Russia. As both Russia and China seek to take advantage of climate change to grow their presence in the Arctic, the US under Trump would likely seek to expand such capabilities on Greenland, and use it as a beachhead to enlarge its own sphere of influence in the region.

The fact Trump sees a wholesale takeover of Greenland as the only way to ensure that Russia and China are stopped in their ambitions makes it clearer than ever that for him, projecting power through strong alliances will always be secondary to doing so alone. For this reason, Eastern European states have come to understand that only by letting Trump run the show can they count on continued American support. Poland and other countries have already been loudly telegraphing their intentions to fall in line with Trump’s demand that NATO countries raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP and take responsibility for their own security.

No one in the region is under any illusions that they will be able to make these goals a reality anytime soon — but making their intentions to do so clear may be these countries’ only hope of survival under the new American order. Nevertheless, what Greenland demonstrates once again is that, while Trump may well care about Russia and want to contain its military adventurism, that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t throw Ukraine and NATO’s East to the dogs if he decided protecting them didn’t serve the America First agenda. For Trump, Greenland and Poland alike are only useful insofar as they benefit MAGA, and by extension, him personally — once they are unable to convince him of their usefulness, their sovereign wishes will be as good as dust.