Ukrainian F-16s take off, Hungary and Slovakia ramp up their oil war with Ukraine, and Poland swaps a prisoner with Russia
July 29-August 4 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukrainian pilots started flying Western F-16s as Ukraine sank a submarine in Crimea and escalated long-range strikes on Russia
Ukraine’s Zelensky announced on Sunday that Ukrainian pilots have already taken to the air in Western F-16s, marking a major milestone in the country’s war effort against Russia. Although none of the planes have been sent directly from the US, the Biden administration has stated it would arm such F-16s with advanced weapons and missiles. Despite lacking enough adequately trained fighter pilots or enough F-16s themselves, Ukraine will likely deploy the jets it now has to defend against Russian missiles and drones across the country, combat Russian defense systems, and target Russian units using surface-to-air-missiles. Concurrently, Ukraine has ramped up its long-range strikes against Russia, striking an airfield in the Rostov region and sinking a critical submarine in Crimea.
Why it matters: Ukraine’s new F-16s will not be a miracle solution for its stagnating fortunes in the conflict, however they will help keep Ukrainian civilian areas and cities safer from Russian attacks beyond the front, especially since it is likely that more jets will be shipped to the country soon. They will also be able to capitalize on a significant trend that is worth highlighting — the steady degradation of Moscow’s air defenses, which have been stretched thin and been unable to stop Ukraine’s increasingly daring drone strikes on Russian territory since the spring. Ukraine’s ability to exploit such gaps is currently limited by NATO-imposed restrictions on Kyiv’s use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory and Ukraine’s continuing lack of long-range missiles, however as these restrictions continue to loosen through diplomacy, F-16s and other NATO tech will likely be used over Russia sooner or later.
2. The EU ordered Slovakia and Hungary to finally ditch Russian oil as Hungary rejected Croatia’s offer of an alternate oil source
Following Ukraine’s sanctions against the transit of oil by Russian petroleum company Lukoil through Ukraine last month, Hungary and Slovakia have continued to escalate their diplomatic dispute with Kyiv over the issue, with Slovakia announcing it would stop supplying Ukraine with diesel until it reversed its ban. Hungary in turn rejected an offer from Croatia to use its pipeline to supplement the energy it would lose as a result of the sanctions, calling Croatia “unreliable” and complaining about the pipeline’s high fees and inadequate capacity. The EU Commission, which Hungary and Slovakia had called on to resolve the crisis, concluded last week that there was no need for urgent consultations because Ukrainian sanctions had not diminished the overall flow of oil to the two countries, but urged them to find alternatives to Russian energy.
Why it matters: Hungary and Slovakia had received waivers at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that allowed them to continue receiving shipments of Russian oil via pipelines in Ukraine with the understanding that they would eventually seek alternate energy sources. This however did not happen, and Hungary has in fact doubled down on Russian oil since then. Hungary’s rejection of Croatia’s offer once again raises serious red flags about its connections to Russia, suggesting that its reliance on Russian oil is a geopolitical choice rather than a matter of necessity as Hungary’s government has claimed since 2022. The EU’s refusal to help with the matter serves to further isolate Hungary on the continent even as it holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU until the end of the year.
3. A Russian GRU officer was released from Poland as part of the largest prisoner swap between Russia and NATO since the Cold War
The Polish government released Russian GRU officer Pavel Rubtsov into Russian custody last week at the request of the US government as part of the largest prisoner swap between Moscow and the West since the end of the Cold War. Rubtsov was a Russian-Spanish dual national working as a journalist under the name Pablo Gonzalez until he was arrested for spying by Polish authorities in 2022. Elsewhere in Eastern Europe, two spies were also handed over by the Slovenian government to Russia as part of the exchange, and German national Rico Krieger was released from Belarus where he had been sentenced to death for alleged terrorism and sabotage.
Why it matters: The prisoner exchange, which notably saw imprisoned Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich returned to the US, had reportedly been in the works for over a year and involved seven countries, representing a victory for transatlantic cooperation between the US, Germany, and Eastern European states. The event was not without controversy however, and in Poland, the former ruling Law and Justice Party objected to the fact that although Krieger was released from Belarus, Polish political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut and other ethnic Poles in Belarusian custody remained behind bars. Nevertheless, Poland’s role in the exchange has once again underscored the critical role it now plays as a key partner for US diplomacy and foreign policy in Europe.
4. An investigation found that software used on Britain’s nuclear submarines was built partially by developers in Belarus and Russia
In contravention of British Ministry of Defence rules, software used by the UK’s nuclear submarine engineers was found to have been designed in part by outsourced developers in Belarus and Siberia. The MOD has determined this to be a serious breach of British national security, and has launched an investigation into the incident. Reportedly, the firm that had outsourced the sensitive software construction to Russia and Belarus had tried to keep it a secret by falsifying the names of the engineers they were working with.
Why it matters: Experts have warned that the personal details of engineers working aboard submarines and other defense infrastructure could have been compromised as a result of this breach, opening the door for regimes in Russia and Belarus to exert pressure on the British defense sector through blackmail or cyberattacks. Russia and China have both utilized such security gaps to undermine Western defense contractors in the past, but this software’s connection to nuclear assets makes it especially dangerous to Britain and NATO’s security architecture.
5. US paused assistance to the Georgian government while satellite images showed new construction at Russia’s naval base in Abkhazia
In the wake of the Georgian government’s passage of the highly controversial Russian-inspired foreign agent law in May and its subsequent crackdown on civil society, the US has announced on Wednesday that it had officially “paused” over $95 million in assistance to Georgia, but would continue to assist in efforts to support democracy, rule of law, and freedom of the press in the country. Meanwhile, satellite images showed that Russia had quickened construction of its new naval based this year on the coast of Abkhazia, one of two Georgian regions it has occupied since 2008.
Why it matters: US financial and economic support has been crucial for Georgia since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and this pause, which marks the first concrete material impact of Georgia’s passage of the foreign agent law on its overseas relations, underscores just how dramatic of a shift has taken place in Georgia’s relationship with the West. Russia’s concurrent acceleration of its work on the naval base in Abkhazia suggests that Moscow is eager to expand its footprint in the eastern Black Sea, and hopes to urgently transfer its Black Sea fleet there to move it further out of range of Ukrainian missiles further north. Not only will the base be a key military asset for Russia, but it may also impact Georgia’s plans to build a deep water port just south of Abkhazia at Ankalia as Ukraine has made it clear it would continue striking Russian naval assets on the Abkhazian coast if they were transferred there.
Other trends to watch:
— Ukraine accused Russia of murdering and dismembering Ukrainian prisoners of war, calling on the International Committee of the Red Cross to launch an investigation.
— Hungary has faced rebuke from EU leaders for new immigration rules that eased requirements for Russian nationals, opening the door for potential spies to enter the Schengen Zone without restrictions.
— Ukrainian military intelligence claimed it played a key part in an ambush of Wagner fighters in Mali.
— Moldova expelled a Russian diplomat after accusing two of its own officials of spying for the Kremlin.
— Sweden and Germany scrambled fighter jets in response to Russian jets flying toward the Latvian coast that did not respond to their radio calls. The jets were ultimately determined to be taking part in exercises involving Russian sea vessels.
— The President of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani was subject to an altercation at the Skopje airport, where an airport staff member pushed her after she refused to hand her phone over to be scanned, claiming the request stood in violation of international norms. The incident has touched off a diplomatic back-and-forth between Kosovo and North Macedonia.
— The Estonian Ministry of the Interior and the Estonian Orthodox Church agreed to stamp out the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia.
Thanks for the cross-post!
See that F-16, and the Hangars, and the extra parts and pieces and mechanics and everything else that goes into flying a fleet of F-16’s, plus every other damned piece of military equipment, spread across the Ukraine?
It’s all bought and paid for by the American people’s tax dollars!
And I’m still driving my 2004 Grand Marquis!
Go figure.