Ukraine's US weapons hit Russia, Poland's new border buffer zone, and censoring Hungary at the EU
May 27-June 2 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine received permission from the US and European countries to use their weapons to strike targets in Russia
After over a month of pressure, the US, Germany, France, and other countries including Poland gave Ukraine the green light to use their weapons to strike at Russian military targets inside Russia. The US stipulated that its weapons could only be used to strike targets or units in Russia taking part in Moscow’s Kharkiv offensive, but didn’t place any clear geographic limits on this stipulation. Ukrainian forces wasted no time after the announcement, and launched US-made HIMARS rockets at targets in Belgorod, Russia, as the Kremlin claimed the US was escalating the conflict.
Why it matters: The new weapons permissions significantly expand Ukraine’s operational capabilities and field of movement, giving it the ability to use advanced western weapons to counter Russian assets on the totality of the effective battlefield that has emerged in northeastern Ukraine, not just on the arbitrary part of it that lies within the country’s borders. This has the potential to bolster Kyiv’s position in Kharkiv, but looking longer term, it is possible that the US may eventually abandon its remaining limitations and allow Ukraine to use its weapons against military targets across Russian territory — opening the door for Ukraine to conduct precise and devastating missile strikes deep within Russia as it has long been doing using drones.
2. Poland reestablished an exclusion zone at its border with Belarus and cracked down on Russian diplomats amid mounting hybrid war
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Wednesday that the country would be reinstating a border “buffer zone” along its border with Belarus after two Polish soldiers were reportedly stabbed by migrants reaching through the border fence last week. The zone would be similar to one put in place along the border by the country’s previous ruling government in 2021 and 2022 at the height of the migration crisis manufactured by Belarus, and would extend up to 2 kilometers from the border in some locations. The move comes as Poland charged five people with terrorism in relation to several cases of arson in the country last month and faced a Russia-linked hack into its state press service that spread disinformation about Polish troop deployments to Ukraine. In response to Russian actions, Polish authorities announced they would be limiting the movement of Moscow’s diplomats in the country.
Why it matters: Tusk’s reintroduction of the border exclusion zone along Poland’s eastern border is his most dramatic attempt yet to counter a key element in the rising tide of Russian-backed hybrid warfare operations against Poland. However, due to the ongoing manufactured migration crisis along the border, the closed security zone is likely to further endanger the lives of migrants trying to make it across the border from Belarus, which together with Russia has instrumentalized migrants to put pressure on Poland since 2021. As other Russian-backed hybrid warfare operations continue to escalate in Poland, which remains a crucial node in the West’s military and diplomatic support effort for Ukraine, Polish authorities’ focus on Russian diplomats themselves suggests that they believe the Kremlin is using its embassies and other official institutions to attempt to destabilize Poland as well.
3. Belgium’s EU presidency pushes European states to suspend Hungary’s voting rights as thousands rally around Hungary’s Orbán
As frustration has continued to grow in the EU over Hungary’s obstructive behavior over aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, Belgium, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, has suggested that European governments take away Hungary’s voting rights via the EU’s Article 7 censorship procedure. Meanwhile, just days before European elections, Hungary’s illiberal PM Viktor Orbán held a thousands-strong rally in Budapest on Saturday to reinvigorate his base after months of scandals and the rise of opposition challenger Péter Magyar, whose party seeks to gain seats in the European Parliament this week.
Why it matters: Although the first phase of Article 7 procedures have already been levied against Hungary, depriving it of its voting rights would be an unprecedented “nuclear option,” especially since Hungary is slated to assume the presidency of the Council of the EU presidency in July. Although the censorship procedure has been suggested before, Hungary is ideologically and politically more isolated within the EU than ever, making it more vulnerable to such moves than at any time in recent years.
4. Poland announced it may train a unit of Ukrainians living in Poland while France considered sending trainers to Ukraine, defying Russia
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated on Friday that the Polish government may soon create and train a military unit of conscription-age Ukrainians living in Poland to support Ukraine’s mobilization effort. Sikorski gave no details about the plan, but earlier last week, stated that deployment of Polish forces to Ukraine “should not be ruled out.” Sources in the French government meanwhile went a step further, and in defiance of Russian warnings, stated the country may soon deploy of as many as several hundred French military trainers to Ukraine itself.
Why it matters: Russia has long warned about the impact of the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil after French President Emanuel Macron repeatedly floated the idea over the past several months. Despite stopping short of a full-scale military deployment, officially sending military trainers to Ukraine would be a provocative move by NATO, and would be a critical test of Russia’s strategic response to the presence of NATO troops directly on Ukrainian soil. Poland had previously stated it was prepared to help send fighting-age Ukrainians back to Ukraine as part of Kyiv’s mobilization drive, but an effort to train such individuals in Poland itself may prove to be a more realistic half-measure that would avoid the poor optics of deportations.
5. The US delivers a key financial aid package to Moldova to counter Russian influence over the country
During his visit to Moldova, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken granted $135 million in aid to the country, much of which will be used to support the country’s critical energy infrastructure, modernize its power sector, and combat political disinformation ahead of its EU referendum and presidential elections later this year.
Why it matters: US support for Moldova’s energy security has been the single most impactful important lever the West has used to bolster the country’s independence from Russia, which had long utilized power plants in the Moscow-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria to wield influence over Moldova and keep it tethered to Russia’s geopolitical sphere. Although Moldova has faced escalating political pressure from Russia, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Moldovan state has steadily built energy connections with the EU and found alternate power sources over the last two years, giving it its own trump card to potentially wrest political control over Transnistria from Russia in the near future. Continued US funding to support its energy sector will be crucial for the country as it seeks to move ever closer to Europe.
Other trends to watch:
— After weeks of street protests, Georgia’s ruling party definitively passed its controversial foreign agent law on Tuesday by overriding a presidential veto, overcoming the last obstacle to its enactment. The law has been condemned by the EU and the US, and has led to sanctions and visa restrictions against Georgian officials.
— Ukraine has reportedly been making it more difficult for Russia to deliver supplies to Crimea, putting pressure on rail links, ferry crossings, bridges, and oil terminals using US-made ATACMS and Neptune anti-ship missiles.
— Two weeks after the attempt on his life, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico was released from the hospital and returned to Bratislava.
— Belarus began a court case against 20 political analysts on Friday, trying them all in absentia for taking part in dissident activities against the country’s Russia-aligned autocratic state. The individuals have all fled the country, and work at various global think tanks and academic institutions.
— Bulgaria’s elections next week are being hailed as a critical test of the country’s ability to resist the influence of sanctioned media mogul and politician Delyan Peevski, who has broad reach within the country’s legal and security sectors.
— Romanian PM Marcel Ciolacu stated the country is discussing sending a Patriot missile system to Ukraine.