Ukraine storms into Russia's Kursk, anti-mining protests rattle Serbia's government, and Hungary cracks down on free press
August 5-11 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine launched a lightning advance into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, presenting Moscow with its most significant setback since 2023
Over the course of the last week, Ukrainian forces have launched an unprecedented assault on Russia’s Kursk Oblast, advancing as far as 18 miles (30 km) beyond the Ukrainian border into the region and seizing the town of Sudzha. Russia has been unable to repel the Ukrainian incursion or to meaningfully stop its advance, and has reportedly had to divert some of its forces from the Donbas front in Ukraine to defend its own territory. Although this is not the first time that forces loyal to Ukraine have entered Russian territory, this is the first time that the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves have done so, and the construction of trenches along Ukrainian positions in the area indicates that unlike during previous raids, this time, they intend to stay.
Why it matters: The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has dramatically turned the tables on Putin’s efforts to advance along the Donbas front and in Kharkiv, and has been described as the most significant setback for the Russian leader since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s insurrection against him in 2023. Having already drawn Russian forces away from battles on Ukrainian territory, Ukraine’s apparent effort to fortify their positions in the oblast indicate that they likely intend to use their occupation as a bargaining chip in eventual peace negotiations with Russia, possibly swapping “land for land.” This may well prove successful — according to one analyst, at Russia’s current pace of advance, it could take up to a year to reconquer the captured territory.
2. Record-breaking protests against lithium mining in Belgrade lead Serbia’s President Vučić to allege a Western plot to overthrow him
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Belgrade, Serbia to protest a large lithium mining project in the west of the country on Saturday that many fear will degrade water resources and public health. The protests have elicited a sharp reaction from Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who has launched a wide-reaching campaign against the protests and alleged that they are part of a Western hybrid war effort to topple him, comparing them to the 2014 Maidan Revolution in Ukraine. Vučić, who is close to Russia, also claimed he had received intelligence from the Kremlin about such a coup being prepared against him.
Why it matters: The lithium mining project, which recently received a boost as part of a deal between Serbia and the EU, is an example of Vučić’s two-pronged foreign policy in which he seeks to balance his ties to Russia with economic cooperation with Brussels. Yet seeing threats against him and his nationalist agenda at every turn, Vučić has jumped on the opportunity to frame the demonstrations as part of Serbia’s perennial battle with NATO and the West, thus adding a nationalistic element to his economic agenda and making it easier to further tamp down on Serbia’s opposition.
3. Hungary’s Orbán’s new ‘sovereignty protection office’ cracked down on remaining independent media in the country
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government has set up a new “sovereignty protection office” that seeks to investigate foreign influence in Hungarian civil society, posessing broad powers to draw on information gathered by intelligence services without judicial oversight. So far, the office has been used to target government critics, anti-corruption watchdogs, and the few remaining independent media outlets in the country, claiming they are a threat to Hungary’s interests.
Why it matters: The sovereignty protection office’s mission sounds ominously similar to anti-foreign influence laws passed in Russia and recently in Georgia, where efforts to go after foreign-funded media and NGOs have precipitated a broad scale assaults on civil society and anti-government opposition groups in those countries. As Orbán’s government continues to centralize power in Putinesque fashion, Hungary’s role in the EU will become even more controversial at a time when its alienation from the majority of the bloc due to its relationship with Russia and opposition to aiding Ukraine’s defense effort is at an all-time high.
4. In a step forward for judicial reform in Poland, a court has removed judges appointed by the previous ruling party for the first time
In a key development in Poland’s at-times controversial battle to restore rule of law in the country following the Law and Justice Party’s time in power, a Warsaw appeals court has for the first time removed judges under its authority who were appointed by the party’s loyalists in the National Council of the Judiciary, pledging to transfer them to a separate body next week. The move has been met with rebuke from various judges loyal to the Law and Justice Party, and one of the affected judges has claimed that the move was aimed at “reactivating the post-Stalinist system.”
Why it matters: Since it took over in December 2023, the current ruling Civic Coalition party has sought to walk back reforms that the Law and Justice Party undertook to undermine rule of law and judicial independence in Poland, according to the EU. Although changes to the court system have taken place, this marks the first time that judges themselves have taken action to rid Poland’s judicial system of politically-appointed members, opening a new, promising, yet difficult chapter in Poland’s struggle with political influence within its judicial sector.
5. Georgia’s ruling party stated it would investigate the opposition for its role in ‘provoking’ the 2008 Russian invasion of the country
The ruling Georgian Dream party has stated it would investigate its rivals, the United National Movement and its controversial leader Mikheil Saakashvili, if it is reelected in the country’s elections in October. Georgian Dream, which has grown closer to Russia this year especially after the passage of a Russian-inspired foreign agent law in May, said it blamed Saakashvili for “provoking” the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, and has pledged to hold him to account following the October vote. Saakashvili, who previously fled Georgia and served as the governor of Odesa Oblast in Ukraine, was arrested upon his return to Georgia in 2021, and has remained imprisoned since.
Why it matters: Although Saakashvili’s legacy in Georgia remains controversial, he and his party have been the primary (if decadent) opposition party to Georgian Dream in the country’s political system for the last decade. Although they have lost much of their legitimacy in the eyes of Georgians opposed to Georgian Dream, the start of investigations against them for politically motivated charges related to the 2008 war would herald a new authoritarian phase in the Georgian Dream’s crackdown on independent voices within Georgian politics.
Other trends to watch:
— Belarus has deployed additional troops to its border with Ukraine and summoned a Ukrainian diplomat in Minsk as it claimed that Ukrainian drones had violated its airspace during its advance into Kursk.
— A poll has showed that 73% of Poles were opposed to allowing people crossing the border from Belarus to claim asylum in Poland in July 2024, in a break with the norms of international law.
— Slovakia’s far-right culture minister has initiated a crackdown on the country’s theaters, galleries, and other cultural institutions, dismissing several of Slovakia’s most renowned directors on political grounds.
— Lithuania introduced new measures that would ban Ukrainians without temporary protection status from working in the country unless they obtain a residence permit starting September 1.
— A Bulgarian law against discussions of LGBTQ issues in schools sparked protests in Sofia on Thursday.
— National politics plagued the mayoral elections in Himare, Albania, where the previous ethnic Greek mayor had previously been arrested for vote-buying. Last week, Albanian PM Edi Rama’s government reportedly exerted pressure to get an ethnic Albanian candidate elected instead.