Ukraine sent drone operators to help rebels in Syria, Georgia installs a new president, and the far-right sows discord in Romania
December 9-16 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine sent drones and drone operators to help Syrian rebels several weeks before they overthrew the Assad regime
After plenty of speculation in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s downfall in Syria, Ukrainian officials divulged that the country’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), had sent around 20 drone operators and 150 drones to rebels in northwestern Syria several weeks before their offensive against the Syrian regime, after having previously trained rebel groups in drone operations on the ground. Also last week, Ukraine’s Zelensky stated he would be setting up a pathway for his country to send food to Syria. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Ukraine assassinated Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow, as Russia started the withdrawal of all of its forces from Syria, despite likely keeping control over its two bases on the country’s coast.
Why it matters: Although the assistance Ukraine gave the Syrian revolutionaries was far from decisive in their lightning campaign against Assad, Kyiv’s help seems to have fundamentally altered the rebels’ drone tactics and capabilities, which were a major part of their success on the battlefield. As I wrote in my analysis earlier this month, Ukraine’s support for the rebels was part of a broader campaign to go after Russian troops and mercenaries across the Middle East and Africa, and was indirectly connected to strengthening Ukraine’s own hand in eventual peace negotiations with Russia. These revelations beg the question whether Ukraine will continue to have a relationship with the new rebel-led government in Damascus as it consolidates power and works to create a functioning state — despite its withdrawal, Russia will likely continue to operate its naval and air base in western Syria for some time, creating potential risks for Turkey and by extension NATO in the Mediterranean. More broadly, Kyiv’s moves in Syria underscore yet again the transformative nature of drone warfare in the 21st century, also highlighted last week by Poland’s announcement that it had bought additional drones as part of efforts to create its own “Drone Force.”
2. Georgia’s pro-Russian leaders elected a loyalist ex-football player as president after he was the only candidate on the ballot
As protests continued in Georgia against the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party and its decision to suspend EU accession talks, the party’s leadership elected Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former football player, as the country’s president through its electoral college, as Georgia’s opposition and the country’s incumbent president denounced the selection as illegitimate. Due to the opposition boycott, Kavelashvili was the only candidate on the ballot. The change comes as Lithuania and Estonia put in place new sanctions against Georgian leaders, while Hungary and Slovakia vetoed such sanctions at the EU level.
Why it matters: Georgian Dream’s selection of Kavelashvili through a one-candidate electoral process has dire implications for Georgia’s democracy, which was already teetering on the edge of collapse after the party’s contested win in the country’s October election, which was deemed neither free nor fair by international bodies. Despite the twin vetoes at the EU, Georgia is continuing to grow more isolated internationally, and although Georgian Dream likely believes it can reengage with the EU on its own terms as I wrote in my latest analysis, its increasingly authoritarian turn is making it into a regional pariah under Russia’s ever-tightening grip.
3. TikTokers who supported far-right candidate fled Romania as mercenaries were arrested for trying to foment chaos in the country
Amid mounting evidence that Russia had financed and artificially boosted the campaign of dark horse far-right presidential candidate Călin Georgescu, TikTok influencers in Romania have fled the country after tax authorities launched investigations into their involvement in the campaign. Previously, Romania’s top court had annulled the first round of the presidential election which Georgescu had won, citing Russian interference and the promotion of his campaign on social media that was not regulated as electoral content. Also last week, as part of a widening investigation into the circumstances of the election, authorities arrested over 20 people including a Romanian mercenary who had weapons, drones, and millions of euros in cash in his possession, who were allegedly aiming to incite violence. Far-right agitators had previously been arrested in connection to the election. The Romanian mercenary arrested also appeared in past photos with Georgescu.
Why it matters: As the fallout from the cancellation of the presidential election continues to expand, Romania appears more exposed than ever to hybrid war threats from Russia and from right-wing actors it may be backing. Although Romania is nowhere near as vulnerable to a Russian takeover as Moldova or Georgia, it is a frontline NATO state, meaning that dramatic leadership shifts buoyed by Kremlin-backed campaigns would have the potential to disrupt the alliance’s defense strategy at a critical moment in its history. Even if Romania is able to weather this storm, the current fiasco showcases that Russian interference efforts can still be profoundly disruptive even in NATO countries with robust security and intelligence structures.
4. Poland’s Tusk poured cold water on reports that Poland and France would send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine after a ceasefire
After reports emerged that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and France’s Macron were discussing deploying a peacekeeping force of 40,000 soldiers to Ukraine after an eventual ceasefire, Tusk downplayed any such suggestions, calling them “speculation.” Polish leaders have previously raised the possibility of sending Polish troops into Ukraine, but always with the caveat that this would take place under NATO auspices.
Why it matters: As Europe considers the specifics of what the end of the war in Ukraine might look like, post-war security guarantees for Kyiv have become a key sticking point, with several different proposals on the table which include massive armaments for Ukraine or an international peacekeeping force. In this second option, with American help unlikely with Trump in office, Poland and its allies will have to pick up the slack — and although no concrete solutions have yet been reached, it is hard to imagine that Tusk hasn’t started discussing potential proposals with other European leaders, even as Warsaw balances security needs in Ukraine with its own defense requirements as a frontline NATO member.
5. Moldova declared a state of emergency over the potential end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine amid energy shortages
Moldova on Friday declared a state of emergency amid fears that Russia would cut off energy supplies to its largest power plant once a transit deal between Russian and Ukrainian gas companies expires at the end of the year. The state of emergency will allow the state to take extraordinary measures to minimize the risk of an energy crisis, and comes a month after pivotal elections in Moldova in which voters re-elected pro-Western president Maia Sandu and narrowly voted to join the European Union.
Why it matters: The primary fear among Moldova’s pro-Western lawmakers is that, having been unable to use hybrid attacks to upend Moldova’s elections, Russia may now weaponize energy to push the country’s government away from Europe. Yet despite having long been able to exert pressure on Moldova through the country’s main power plant in the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria, the country has diversified its energy resources since then, with plenty of power grid connections to the EU. Although a stoppage of Russian gas transit through Ukraine would be a major problem for Moldova, solutions may be reached by working with Kyiv and the EU to supply it with resources in a pinch. After all, it is in the national security interest of both to keep Moldova energy-secure.
Other stories to watch
— Romania and Bulgaria are granted full Schengen membership, with one caveat (Euronews)
— Russia’s mysterious blimps sow fear and confusion on Nato border (The Telegraph)
— Poland's schoolchildren take mandatory firearms lessons (DW)
— Serbian authorities using spyware to illegally surveil activists, report finds (The Guardian)
— US set to sanction Serbia’s main oil company over Russian ownership, Vučić says (Politico Europe)
— 4 Men Arrested In North Macedonia Suspected Of Plotting Terrorist Acts (Radio Free Europe)
— Prosecutors summon Kosovo's prime minister in a move his supporters say is politically motivated (ABC News)