Ukraine received F-16s, Orbán lambasted the EU and the West, and Poland passed a controversial firearm law
July 22-28 in Eastern Europe
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Apologies for the late delivery today — thanks for your patience!
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine prepared for the arrival of Western F-16s as Russia’s faltering offensive made limited gains in the Donbas
Ukraine stated it was in the process of moving at most 20 Western F-16s into the country which it hopes to deploy this summer in an effort to counter Russia’s increasingly sophisticated targeting of Ukrainian air bases. However the jets, which have been sent by European NATO members and not directly from the US, are unlikely to make an immediate impact on the battlefield, and are likely too few and come too late to make a dent in Russia’s strategy, according to experts. Yet although Russia reportedly made limited gains in two villages in Donetsk Oblast last week, its summer offensive has also failed to make any significant breakthrough against Ukrainian lines despite Russian advantages in the air.
Why it matters: Ukraine and Russia remain locked in a perpetual arms and tactics race on the battlefield, with neither side being able to decisively turn the tide in its favor despite delivering significant blows to the other, and the arrival of F-16s will likely continue to play into this paradigm. The situation is unlikely to meaningfully change on the Ukrainian battlefield anytime soon, especially as all eyes on both sides of the frontline look ahead to the American presidential election in November, whose outcome will be pivotal to the future of the conflict.
2. Hungary appealed to the EU for help with Ukrainian oil sanctions as PM Orbán drew rebuke for giving a nationalist, anti-EU speech
Hungary, joined by Slovakia, appealed to the European Commission to help the pair find a solution to Ukraine’s ban on Lukoil’s transit of Russian oil through its territory, which Hungary has claimed has brought it to the brink of an energy crisis. Slovakia claimed it had found a “technical” resolution to the situation, however the two countries have also called Ukraine’s sanctions against Lukoil “blackmail” against them due to their opposition to military aid to Ukraine and Ukrainian EU membership. Ukraine however denied such allegations last week. These moves come as Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán delivered an anti-EU speech denouncing the Western-dominated order, praising Donald Trump, and peddling conspiracy theories endorsed by the Kremlin.
Why it matters: For years, Orbán has framed his closeness to Russia as vital for Hungary’s energy security, but his speech last week seemed to go even further — Orbán sees the EU and the West as fading powers, and believes it is in Hungary’s interest to fully pivot to Russia and China instead. But the crisis around Ukraine’s sanctions on Lukoil continues to reveal how vulnerable Hungary has become in the international arena thanks to this ideological position, and how much of a miscalculation Orbán’s apparent pivot has been. Not only has Orbán been derided by former allies like Poland for his recent rhetoric, but has also been sidelined by top EU officials even while Hungary currently holds the rotating presidency of the bloc. In choosing Russia’s sphere, Orbán has firmly alienated the immediate neighborhood which he most relies on, harming Hungary’s real interests in the process.
3. Poland passed a controversial new law on firearm use by border guards against migrants, sparking rebuke from human rights NGOs
The Polish parliament has passed a new law that would decriminalize border guards’ use of firearms in self-defense against migrants along the Polish-Belarusian border, where a Polish soldier was stabbed through the border fence and later died of his wounds last month. Although Polish Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Duszczyk has stated that law would only allow soldiers to use lethal weapons to protect their own and their colleagues’ lives, the language of the law itself is somewhat broader, allowing officers to “counterac[t] actions directly aimed” at attacks on the “life, health or freedom” of officers. NGOs, along with Poland’s and the Council of Europe’s human rights commissioners, have condemned the law.
Why it matters: As tensions on the Polish-Belarusian border have continued to escalate following the soldier’s death and amid attacks by individuals coerced by the Belarusian regime into putting pressure on Poland, Poland’s policy toward the security crisis has also continued to become more radical, and this latest move is likely to raise the temperature even further. Although the crisis, which began in 2021, has remained largely stagnant for years, these new permissions are likely to not only be misused against migrants who have no intention of cooperating with Belarus-backed acts of provocation, but may also lead to episodes of violence that test the already-fragile state of security along NATO’s border with the Russian-aligned world.
4. Georgia’s pro-Russian government alleged an assassination plot against its members by former ruling officials
Georgian Dream, the pro-Russian ruling party of Georgia that passed a highly controversial foreign agent law in May that sparked condemnations from the EU and the US, has claimed that members of the previous ruling government planned an assassination plot against the country’s current leaders, including Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder of Georgian Dream. Georgians who fought in Ukraine on Kyiv’s behalf were detained as part of the investigation into the alleged conspiracy, and reportedly around 300 members of the Georgian battalion in Ukraine have been added to the country’s wanted list.
Why it matters: These new politically motivated allegations represent yet another instance of Georgia’s slide toward Russia’s sphere of influence, and are likely yet another means for Georgian Dream to target the political opposition in Georgia. Such moves bode ill for the country’s elections in October, and may presage a much more strong-armed response to anti-government movements and politicians ahead of a vote which may cement Russia’s influence in Georgia if Georgian Dream is reelected.
5. A German man in Belarusian custody pleads guilty to planning acts of sabotage in Belarus for Ukraine in a highly orchestrated confession
Rico Krieger, a German medic who was arrested in Belarus this month and sentence to death for alleged “terrorism,” appeared to plead guilty to planting explosives along a railway in service of Ukraine in a highly choreographed video all while asking German authorities to help him. The German government has stated it is working with the Belarusian side to advocate on Krieger’s behalf.
Why it matters: Although the charges against Krieger are likely fabricated, experts have speculated that it is probable that Belarus is trying to use Krieger’s detention as leverage in potential talks with Germany over prisoner exchanges, especially as Krieger’s confession was widely publicized on state TV. Since 2020, Belarus has been under wide-ranging sanctions by the EU, which the Belarusian state has sought to counter by launching hybrid warfare campaigns along its borders with the bloc, and by cracking down on dissent both at home and by its nationals abroad.
Other trends to watch:
— Romania stated that Russian drone debris has been found in a border town near Ukraine, claiming that Russian drones entered its airspace during a barrage against targets on Ukrainian territory. Although it is unlikely the drones were intentionally targeting Romania, which is a NATO member, the strikes were denounced by Bucharest.
— Poland has implemented a new low-flying drone program to safeguard its airspace from errant Russian missiles, which have been difficult to counter in the past due to their low altitude.
— Belarus’s Lukashenko stated his state would expand ties with North Korea, following in his ally Russia’s footsteps.
— Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk faced setbacks to his liberal agenda on a key abortion law, which was defeated after conservative allies broke from his coalition for the vote.
— Czechia, which has led an effort to send artillery shells to Ukraine from countries across Europe, has stated that the plan will fall short unless more funds are pledged to the initiative.
— A Kosovar militia fighter, Pjeter Shala, has been convicted by a court in The Hague of war crimes committed against Serbian forces during the Kosovo uprising in 1998-1999.