Ukraine pummels Russian energy sites, Poland's first F-35 is unveiled, and Hungary spars with the EU while exploring more Russian energy deals
August 26-September 1 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine conducted one of its largest ever drone attacks on Russian energy sites after Moscow carried out strikes against Ukrainian cities
Early last week, Russia launched wide-ranging missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, and others, before striking the city of Kharkiv later in the week. These attacks hit not only civilian infrastructure but also strategic power infrastructure, triggering blackouts in many parts of the country. Ukraine however responded by carrying out one of its largest drone attacks of the war against Russian energy infrastructure, hitting a major oil refinery near Moscow and sending 150 drones across 15 Russian regions. Despite continuing to hold the swath of territory it had captured in Russia’s Kursk, Russian forces advanced further into Ukraine’s Donbas while using conscripts to deal with Kursk instead.
Why it matters: Ukraine and Russia have descended back into a brutal energy war, with Ukraine striking critical oil resources used by Moscow to fuel its war effort while Russian forces targeted power infrastructure to wreck havoc on Ukraine’s civilian population. Ukraine has demonstrated its prowess with long-range drones, hitting Russian energy and military production targets deep within its territory, but remains severely handicapped by Western restrictions on Kyiv’s use of more advanced weapons to strike targets deep within Russia. As Ukraine continued to call for more leeway in its use of Western arms, Russia has signaled that it is working to revise its nuclear doctrine in response to Western aid to Ukraine, potentially lowering its threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
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2. Poland’s first ever F-35 has been developed, but it won’t receive the first batch of the new jets until 2026
The first F-35 developed specifically for Poland was unveiled on Wednesday by Lockheed Martin, the first of 32 jets that Poland purchased as part of a $4.6 billion deal signed with the US in 2020. Polish F-35s, which have been named “Husarz” in honor of Poland’s legendary winged Hussar cavalry, will however only arrive in the country in 2026, and the full batch of fighters will not arrive until 2030. Poland also stated last week that it won’t be able to send additional MiG-29 jets from its arsenal to Ukraine as Kyiv has requested until it is able to replace them with F-35s in 2026.
Why it matters: Poland has been undertaking a major modernization and expansion of its arsenal and military capabilities since the start of the war in Ukraine, and the development of its specialized F-35, which will make it only the second F-35 operator in Eastern Europe along with Czechia, will go a long way toward upgrading its air force. The importance of being able to quickly mobilize air assets to respond to threats along Poland’s borders with Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus were highlighted last week when a Russian drone may have landed on Polish territory during Moscow’s barrage of Ukrainian cities on Monday. While Poland’s purchase of F-35s will also allow it to donate many of its Soviet-era jets to Ukraine, as with many Western military shipments to Kyiv, the timeline of such deliveries may mean it will be too little and too late for Ukraine to use them to turn the tide on the ground anytime soon.
3. Hungary hinted at new contracts with Russia’s Gazprom and clashed with EU ministers and Spain over its veto of a train deal
In a dramatic turn of events, a partially state-owned Hungarian company threatened to sue the government of Spain after Madrid halted a takeover of a Spanish train car producer by the company, claiming the Hungarian state’s connections to Moscow and the company’s past financial ties to Russian banks and would make the move a national security risk. Also last week, Hungary once again clashed with the EU over its policy toward Ukraine and Russia, with the country’s Foreign Minister Szijjártó claiming the EU top diplomat Josep Borrell’s proposals to expand permissions for Ukraine to use NATO weapons on Russian territory was “reckless.” Following this diplomatic scuffle, Szijjártó made an unannounced trip to Russia to meet with the head of Russia’s Gazprom, US-sanctioned CEO Alexey Miller, where he underscored the importance of Russian energy for Hungary’s national security.
Why it matters: Hungary’s closeness to Russia has now not only become a diplomatic and political liability for Budapest, but also a commercial one, as the drama surrounding the railway takeover in Spain demonstrates. It remains to be seen how much longer Hungary’s position in the EU will remain unaffected by its insistence on strengthening its ties to Moscow — during the meeting with Borrell and other EU ministers, Hungary was criticized for its recent decision to broaden a visa program for Russian and Belarusian nationals, which European leaders see as a breach of the bloc’s security. New contracts with Gazprom will only fuel perceptions of Hungary as a liability to the EU and to the Schengen Zone, potentially leading to an eventual decision point about its future within the bloc.
4. Serbia moves away from Russia in a landmark deal to buy French fighter jets, but remains unlikely to join the EU anytime soon
In a move meant to signal his desire to commit to a path toward EU membership, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić signed several significant agreements with France on Friday, including a landmark $3 billion deal for 12 French fighter jets, and distanced himself from Putin and Russia. Other deals included the development of a nuclear energy program for Serbia and sales of lithium for electric vehicle batteries, whose extraction in Serbia has garnered headlines recently after protestors across the country condemned renewed mining efforts, much to Vučić’s chagrin. Despite the breakthrough, Vučić remarked that Serbia is unlikely to join the EU in 2028, the year that other countries in the Western Balkans have set as their target for accession.
Why it matters: Serbia’s position between Russia, China, and the EU has become increasingly difficult for it to balance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but although Serbia continues to maintain cultural and political ties to Russia while pursuing its own regional nationalist agenda in Bosnia, Kosovo, and the Western Balkan region, Vučić has clearly made the calculation that outreach to the EU is of more immediate national interest than backing itself into Russia’s corner. Serbia’s purchase of French jets also serves as a signal of Belgrade’s desire to limit its military reliance on Russia at a time when Europe is seeking to expand its defense sector.
5. Kosovo closed five parallel institutions serving its ethnic Serb minority, drawing rebuke from the US amid escalating tensions
Kosovo closed five institutions intended for its ethnic Serb minority on Friday, claiming they violated the country’s constitution and were being used to issue falsified documents. Kosovo’s decision was met with protest from the US and the UN, which claimed the move would continue to raise tensions between majority-Albanian Kosovo, its Serb minority, and with Serbia itself. The move has already prompted protests by Serbs in the ethnically divided city of Mitrovica in norther Kosovo.
Why it matters: The move comes amid rising tensions between Serbs and the country’s majority Albanian population, especially amid the planned opening of a controversial bridge linking the two sides of Mitrovica. Although Kosovo and Serbia had previously agreed in 2013 to close the so-called parallel institutions, which exist in Kosovo despite being financed and run by the Serbian government, the US, UN, and Kosovo’s Western allies have urged such closures to take place within the framework of the country’s EU-backed negotiations with Serbia. For Kosovo however, as the negotiation process with Serbia has floundered over the past year, its government has likely come to the conclusion that it will remain in a state of quasi-independent limbo so long as it continues to rely on international mediation processes to deal with Serbian interference in its politics and national security. The result however may only enflame relations with Serbia, opening the door for a renewed violence in Kosovo and increased pressure on US-backed NATO peacekeeping forces stations in the country.
Other trends to watch:
— In an apparent effort to draw Ukrainian forces away from other fronts, Belarusian vehicles with battle markings have massed on the Ukrainian border, failing to heed Ukraine’s demands for them to avoid provocations.
— Poland’s government published new guidelines that expanded abortion rights in the country after failing to do so legislatively. Under the new rules, recommendations from specialist doctors are enough to allow women to receive abortions in hospitals.
— Lithuania’s foreign minister recommended that Ukraine continue to keep its war plans secret, even from Western partners, as it had before its incursion into Kursk.
— For the first time, Belarus, which is allied with Russia, shot down an errant Russian attack drone that had flown into its territory.
— Slovakia announced that it will be purchasing six air defense systems from Israel.
— Bulgaria’s Turkish-minority party tried to find ways to divorce itself from its US-sanctioned political leader Delyan Peevski.