Ukraine may temporarily let Russia maintain its occupation, Georgia cracks down on pro-EU protests, and Poland deepens ties in the Baltic
November 25-December 1 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Zelensky said he is ready to temporarily let Russia occupy its territories in return for NATO bid as Trump named his Ukraine envoy
During an interview last week, Ukraine’s Zelensky stated that one way to end the “hot phase” of the war would be to extend the NATO security umbrella to all parts of Ukraine that are unoccupied by Russia as part of a ceasefire deal, and to regain the remaining territories diplomatically later. This marks a significant departure from Ukraine’s previous position on the matter, and in effect temporarily gives up on immediately winning back lands occupied by Russia — something that certain observers have described as a “major concession” to Putin. This comes as Trump named former US lieutenant general Keith Kellogg as his envoy to Ukraine, and as both Ukraine and Russia faced rising rates of troop desertions across the frontline.
Why it matters: Despite advocating for “peace through strength” approach that forces Ukraine to the negotiating table by leverage US military assistance for Kyiv, Kellogg is seen as a less extreme choice than some of Trump’s other national security and foreign affairs picks, and supported Biden’s move last month to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with American long-range missiles. The choice of Kellogg also helps to clarify Trump’s eventual policy on Ukraine — the president-elect’s camp seems to be angling for an “escalate to de-escalate” approach that weaponizes factors like Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to put pressure on Russia to negotiate on American terms. Zelensky appears to increasingly understand the logic that will govern these negotiations, and despite signaling a willingness to give up on pursuing full Ukrainian control over its territory as a goal of the talks themselves, he is trying to create room for himself to maneuver within the confines Trump’s team is laying out.
2. Georgia’s government cracked down on protests as it reopened parliament without opposition MPs present and suspended EU talks
Post-election protests in Georgia escalated dramatically this past week after the ruling Georgian Dream party, whose proclaimed victory in highly irregular elections in October was rejected by the European Parliament last week, suspended Georgia’s EU accession talks for the next four years, accusing the bloc of “blackmail.” In addition to four days of protests, which have spread across the country and have involved hundreds of thousands of people, the move has led to rampant resignations of diplomats and officials across the government and the suspension of America’s strategic partnership with Georgia. The protests have been marked by intense police violence that has left dozens injured, as reports of beatings of detainees in police custody have swirled. Also last week, Georgian Dream unilaterally reopened parliament as part of its claimed electoral mandate, despite the absence of opposition MPs who have boycotted parliament since the election.
Why it matters: Along with Moldova and Ukraine, Georgia has for years been seen as a critical political battleground between Russia and Europe, and its election in October was viewed as crucial litmus test for the country’s direction. Despite long being sympathetic to Russia, Georgian Dream had also presented itself as pro-European and in favor of EU accession during its electoral campaign. Perhaps for this reason, protests in Georgia had remained timid following the rigged vote in October — but with the party’s incontrovertible turn away from the EU last week, the Georgian public has now clearly demonstrated that this was their final red line. The current popular anger coupled with the opposition’s boycott will certainly continue to make life difficult for Georgian Dream — however with Europe and the US increasingly cutting ties with the Georgian government and introducing sanctions, Georgian Dream may see few reasons not to continue to drift toward Russia’s political sphere.
3. Poland signed a new defense pact with Sweden to continue support for Ukraine and proposed Baltic patrols against Russia
After two undersea internet cables were severed in the Baltic Sea last week, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called for joint navy patrols in the area to counter Russia, although no perpetrators have definitively been identified yet. Tusk discussed the idea of transnational policing efforts in the Baltic Sea at a meeting of Baltic leaders in Sweden, where Tusk also signed a strategic partnership with Stockholm on defense, economic cooperation, and maintaining military support for Ukraine.
Why it matters: Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Baltic Sea has become an increasingly strategically important theater of military and diplomatic operations, especially since Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO. Although it remains unclear who severed the cables, this is not the first such incident to take place in the area, and some governments have already suggested that China or Russia may be to blame. Whatever the case may be, Poland’s move to deepen its ties with Sweden is aimed at solidifying NATO control over the Baltic region and is meant to be yet another insurance policy against America’s potential military withdrawal from Europe. Just as critically, Poland’s meetings with Sweden are part of its effort to shore up guarantees of support for Ukraine ahead of Trump’s return to power, and although Warsaw has been marginally successful in this push, it remains unlikely that it and its partners will be able to wholly replace American assistance to Ukraine anytime soon.
4. Despite a surging far-right and allegations of Russian influence, Romania’s ruling leftist party won the country’s parliamentary vote
In the wake of pro-Russian far-right candidate Călin Georgescu’s surprise win in the first round of Romania’s presidential elections last month, the country’s ruling left-wing party, the Social Democrat party (PSD), won the largest share of the vote in Romania’s parliamentary elections on Sunday. Although the PSD won 24% of the vote, the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians was hot on their tail with 18% of the vote, skyrocketing to become the country’s second largest parliamentary bloc. The critical election took place a week before the second round of the presidential election on December 8, which will see Georgescu compete against leftist Elena Lasconi. Also last week, Romania’s top court ordered a recount of the first round of the presidential election, with suspicions about Georgescu’s massive over-performance.
Why it matters: Although the PSD won the parliamentary elections and it is very possible that Georgescu will lose the second round of the presidential vote next week, the cross-board surge of the far-right, which has exhibited pro-Russian political tendencies, presents serious challenges for Romania. As a young yet promising democracy, Romania occupies a critical position along NATO’s eastern flank and is a key node in the alliance’s defense against Russia amid the war in Ukraine. An increasingly popular far-right in the country would present challenges for NATO and the EU at a critical moment in the alliance’s history on the even of Trump’s return to office in the US. Even if the right-wingers will not be able to exert direct power at the top of the country’s decision-making hierarchy, with far-right politicians breathing down their necks, the ruling PSD may find their legislative agenda stymied — which alone may present challenges for European national security.
5. Kosovo arrested people belonging to a Serb sabotage group for attacks on a key water canal, linking them to Serbia
Kosovo has arrested 8 people for an attack on a critical canal that supplies water to its two main power plants, calling the incident a terrorist attack and linking the attackers to Serbia, whose government has denied the accusations. According to Kosovo authorities, most of the attackers were tied to Civilna Zastita and Brigada Sever, two Serb groups that the government of the country considers terrorist organizations. It appears the groups had significant resources to carry out the attack, including 15 to 20 kg of explosives, six rocket launchers, and various small arms, which Kosovo police raided across 10 locations. The attack has threatened Kosovo’s power supply, leading authorities to active their armed forces to protect the country’s energy resources.
Why it matters: The revelations about the attack come over a year since Serb militants, also allegedly affiliated with Civilna Zastita and Brigada Sever, battled special forces of the Kosovo police near the northern town of Banjska. Tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have remained high ever since, and the latest attack and Serbia’s alleged involvement in it is yet another factor worsening relations between the two countries, as Serbia continues to take actions to increase its influence over Kosovo, while the country seeks to assert its sovereignty and independence from Belgrade. With few diplomatic prospects for a resolution between the two governments at present, further escalations in Kosovo are likely, and have the potential to reignite the Kosovo War between the two sides that ended nearly 25 years ago.
Other stories to watch
- Ukrainian men face sexual torture in Russian detention centres: UN (Al Jazeera English)
- German leaders float sabotage questions in deadly DHL plane crash in Lithuania (CNN)
- Estonia could evacuate all citizens if Russia attacks, says top military man (TVP World)
- Polish government approves criminalisation of anti-LGBT hate speech (Notes from Poland)
- Poland and Ukraine announce “progress” on exhumation of WWII massacre victims (Notes from Poland)
- Slovakia detains two over alleged hybrid attacks on infrastructure (Euronews)
- No appetite for Hungary’s pitch to advance Serbia EU accession talks (Euractiv)
- New EU enlargement commissioner calls on North Macedonia to change constitution (Ekathimerini)
- Albanian opposition supporters block the capital’s streets in an anti-government rally (Associated Press)