Ukraine makes advances in AI weapons, Orbán visits Kyiv and Moscow, and Poland talks WWII reparations with Germany
July 1-7 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine received a major new weapons package from the US and turned to AI for next-gen advances in drone tech
The US announced a $2.3 billion military aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday that will include crucial artillery rounds, missiles, and anti-tank weapons, and is the largest weapons package the US has provided since its breakthrough $61 billion bundle in April. The package came in advance of the NATO summit taking place in Washington, DC this week, during which leaders are expected to pledge military support for Ukraine for at least another year. Yet as Russian military spending has continued to outmatch the West’s in the war, Ukrainians have increasingly utilized deep learning in their drone innovation efforts, leading to rapid advances in autonomous AI-powered drone warfare. According to Ukrainian entrepreneurs, entirely self-guided drone fleets, autonomous gun turrets, and other advances are already in development for use on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Why it matters: American weapons have proven to be a game changer for Ukraine on the battlefield since this spring, and have helped halt Russian advances in Kharkiv and in the Donbas. But homegrown Ukrainian efforts to adapt to an increasingly scarce supply of arms from the West have been critical not just for Ukraine’s war effort, but also for weapons innovation in general. Just as the First World War yielded a transformation in weapons technology, so too is the war in Ukraine catalyzing rapid advances in AI-powered autonomous drones and weapons that will likely come to define warfare in the near future.
2. Hungary’s Orbán visited Kyiv and Moscow as part of a futile “peace” mission and formalized a new far-right EU parliament group
In an attempt at shuttle diplomacy, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made unannounced visits both to Kyiv to meet with Ukraine’s Zelensky and to Moscow to hold talks with Vladimir Putin last week. The visits, both firsts for Orbán, were framed as part of his “peace” effort to end the war in Ukraine, but predictably, they appear to have achieved little — Orbán spoke to both Zelensky and Putin about a possible ceasefire prior to future negotiations, but walked away from the meetings with the rather obvious conclusion that Putin and Zelensky “are very far apart” on the conditions for such a ceasefire. Orbán’s visits took place shortly before he announced that he had successfully formed a new right-wing grouping in the EU parliament, Patriots for Europe, after parties from Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands joined his party, Fidesz, alongside parties from Czechia, Portugal, and Austria.
Why it matters: Orbán’s outreach to Ukraine and Russia took place against the backdrop of Hungary’s ascension to the presidency of the Council of the EU and a right-wing surge in the European parliamentary elections late last month. These changes have elevated Orbán’s influence on the European stage, which has now become buoyed further by his new role at the head of his parliamentary grouping. Having developed a reputation as a stubborn Russian sympathizer within the EU and NATO however, Orbán is likely trying to soften his image on the war in Ukraine in order to buy himself more allies in Europe, strengthen his position as an intermediary between NATO, Ukraine, and Russia, and likely salvage his party’s prospects at home.
3. German Chancellor Scholz’s talks with Polish PM Donald Tusk over WWII reparations elicit criticism in Poland
As part of intergovernmental consultations between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Poland’s new government led by PM Donald Tusk, Scholz visited Warsaw early last week to discuss a host of issues, including security, the rise of the right-wing across Europe, and the matter of World War II reparations for Poland. However, despite expectations that Scholz would reveal specifics about remaining funds that Germany owed Polish survivors of the war, Scholz’s vague promises about future payments, the opening of a house of memory in Berlin, and increased defense cooperation with Poland led to denunciations of the German leader across Poland’s media and political landscape. It was later revealed that Tusk had rejected a compensation proposal Scholz made behind closed doors as insufficient, shocking Scholz, and leading him to avoid mentioning specific commitments of any kind.
Why it matters: World War II history is central to modern Polish identity, and the issue of reparations has been a political football between the German and Polish sides for years. As Poland and Germany seek to mend their relationship after years of acrimony during populist rule in Poland, reparations may present a serious stumbling block to fully cooperative ties. According to a new poll, a majority of Poles want Poland to continue to seek reparations from Germany, meaning that the lack of any kind of deal now is likely to not only have an impact on perceptions of Scholz in Poland, but may also come to reflect poorly on Tusk himself, who has been criticized by his opponents for being too conciliatory to Germany in years past.
4. Hints begin to emerge about Trump’s NATO policy, which may pull American support for members that don’t meet spending targets
According to officials engaged with Donald Trump’s circle, the former president’s team is beginning to put together a potential national security approach to NATO that involves only providing large scale military assistance to Europe in moments of crisis without totally withdrawing from the alliance. In a notable part of the potential plan, Trump would introduce a system in which only states that spend 2% of their GDP or more would receive US security guarantees.
Why it matters: While this plan is so far only in its infancy, experts claim Trump’s proposed two-tiered security system may violate Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which is the basis for much of post-Cold War security in Eastern Europe and which would have potentially catastrophic consequences for the cohesion of the alliance. The silver lining for Eastern Europe is that every country in NATO that borders Russia or Ukraine in the region spends at least 2% of its GDP on its military, meaning that such provisions wouldn’t have as disastrous of an effect as they otherwise would have. Nevertheless, any drawdown of US support or security guarantees for Europe under Trump is likely to increase disunity in NATO and to work in Russia’s favor.
5. Chinese troops will take part in “anti-terrorist” military drills with Belarus on Poland’s border
Last last week, Belarus announced that Chinese soldiers would join them in 11-day “anti-terrorist” military exercises in Brest, a Belarusian city that sits right on the Polish border. The exercises come as Belarus joined a Chinese initiative that that will deepen economic, military, and political ties between the two countries, both of which are already close to Russia.
Why it matters: The announcement is yet another indication that countries beyond Russia may become more intimately involved on its side along the fringes of the war in Ukraine, increasingly internationalizing the Russian military sphere. Last month, North Korea announced it may send military engineers to assist Russian troops in Ukraine, and while China is unlikely to take such a dramatic step, its involvement in drills in Russian proxy Belarus right on NATO’s border may be a signal to the West that it too has a stake in Russia’s success in the war.
Other trends to watch:
— Ukraine’s security services announced they had foiled a coup plot in Kyiv that would have benefited Russia, however it remained unclear if Russia itself was involved. Russian attempts to assassinate Zelensky or to destabilize the Ukrainian government have been frequent since the start of Moscow’s invasion in 2022.
— Ukraine claims it duped Russia into striking fake models of planes on a runway with valuable Iskander-M missiles.
— Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico made his first appearance outside Slovakia’s capital since the attempt on his life in May, saying he was discouraged that he was unable to visit Moscow with Viktor Orbán.
— The UK’s new Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Warsaw on Sunday in his first international trip since taking office to strengthen Britain’s ties with Europe and to recommit to the continent’s defense.
— Ukraine stated it is ready to help its neighbor Moldova with Russian hybrid threats ahead of its presidential election and EU membership referendum later this year.
— Lithuania is reportedly developing an app citizens will be able to use to donate to the country’s defense efforts.
— A US-sanctioned Bulgarian oligarch has become the main obstacle to a new government in Bulgaria, which will soon hold its seventh election in four years.