Ukraine launches new attack in Kursk, Poland takes the EU presidency, and Georgia's president refuses to step down
December 23, 2024 - January 5, 2025 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine launched a new offensive in Russia’s Kursk amid heavy losses among North Korean troops in the area
Early Sunday, Ukrainian forces began a counterattack against Russian troops that had been advancing for weeks in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine has been occupying territory since August 2024. According to news reports, the results of the offensive so far remain mixed, but come amid reports of several hundred casualties among North Korean forces, which have been deployed to Kursk over the past month-and-a-half to reinforce the Russian army. The latest movement in Kursk came as Russia continued to pummel Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones shortly after the start of the new year, killing at least one person in Kyiv. Ukraine’s Zelensky meanwhile continued to build the case for Western security guarantees prior to negotiations with Russia, speaking optimistically about Donald Trump’s ability to pave the way toward a peace settlement on podcaster Lex Fridman’s show last week.
Why it matters: The continued manpower that both Ukraine and Russia are devoting to the Kursk theater demonstrates just how important it is for the future of the conflict and its ultimate resolution, both as a bargaining chip that Ukraine would like to use at the negotiating table, and as a stain on Russia’s ability to protect its own territories. Along with Western security guarantees, which will inevitably need to be arranged with Trump’s help but will be enforced by Europe, Ukraine needs Kursk to make its position as strong as possible going into negotiations and to demonstrate to Trump that it is capable of holding its own against Russia even at this late stage of the war.
2. Poland assumed the presidency of the EU pledging to focus on security and to counter Russia amid a row with Hungary
Following Hungary’s tumultuous presidency, Poland launched its presidency of the EU on January 1, pledging to make security and countering Russia its top priorities over the next six months. Poland’s PM Donald Tusk stated he will seek to realign Europe around supporting Ukraine as it moves into the final phases of the war and as the continent navigates the return of Donald Trump to office in the US. Poland’s divergence from Hungary’s vision was made clear when Warsaw barred Hungary from attending its gala inaugurating the start of its presidency, following Hungary’s move to grant political asylum to a former Polish minister fleeing financial charges.
Why it matters: Although the EU presidency is a largely ceremonial role, its holder often wields considerable sway over the bloc’s direction during the course of a given rotating term. Poland’s rise to the position just before Trump’s return to office amid a pivotal period in the war in Ukraine means that Warsaw will likely end up having a major impact on the contours of Europe’s response to Trump and how it approaches peace negotiations with Russia, including dealing with crucial on-the-ground security guarantees for Kyiv. The moment also underscores just how influential Poland is becoming in European defense affairs and beyond, with expectations high for Warsaw to lead the charge on reinvigorating support for Ukraine across the continent.
3. Georgia’s pro-Russian ruling party swore in a new president after the incumbent refused to step down and the US sanctioned its leader
Amid continued protests in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi, the country’s ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party inaugurated conservative loyalist Mikheil Kavelashvili as president just before the new year, even as the incumbent president, Salome Zourabichvili, refused to step down from the post. Zourabichvili, who is aligned with the Georgian opposition that has boycotted parliament since Georgian Dream’s victory in elections widely regarded as fraudulent, agreed to vacate the presidential palace following his swearing in, despite calling Kavelashvili’s election illegitimate. Also in late December, the US placed sanctions on the leader of Georgian Dream, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Why it matters: Although fears had mounted that Zourabichvili’s refusal to recognize Kavelashvili as president would lead to a dramatic political showdown at the top of Georgia’s political pyramid, the incumbent president’s decision to leave the presidential palace while maintaining her leadership role avoids such a worst case scenario. Nevertheless, within the current reality, two rival governments de facto exist in Georgia with rival presidents at their head, meaning that rather than a single momentous clash, the country is in for a much more drawn out showdown that may lead to the rise of a semi-permanent opposition-in-exile of the sort that arose within Belarusian political society after 2020. Like those leaders, Georgia’s opposition may too be forced to flee their country if current trends continue.
4. The end of a Russian gas transit deal and other cutoffs put pressure on Hungary, Slovakia, and Moldova’s Transnistria
After months of political wrangling by Hungary and Slovakia to extend it, a Russian gas transit deal through Ukraine officially expired on January 1 following Ukraine’s refusal to extend it in light of Moscow’s ongoing invasion of the country. The end of the deal jeopardizes the energy security of both Bratislava and Budapest, which, despite urgings by the European Union, refused to turn away from Russian energy since 2022. In Slovakia, which remains particularly dependent on Russian gas, PM Robert Fico has threatened to sever support for Ukrainian refugees in the country as a result of Kyiv’s stance, triggering thousands-strong protests in the country. Meanwhile, Russia’s gas giant Gazprom also severed energy supplies to Moldova’s Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria, which has remained dependent on Russian gas while the rest of Moldova has become integrated into the European energy market in recent years. The cutoff has led to rolling blackouts and heat shortages in Transnistria in the middle of winter, with the region’s main power plant switching to coal. Moldovan leaders have accused Russia of making the move to put pressure on its pro-EU government, calling the situation a “security crisis.”
Why it matters: With no chance that Kyiv will go back on its decision to stop the flow of Russian gas through its territory, both Hungary and Slovakia’s position at the heart of Europe mean that they may soon have to choose between their ideologically motivated reliance on Russia and their energy needs — thus setting them up for a geopolitical crisis with the EU that will likely have major consequences for their political futures. In Moldova, following the country’s vote to join the EU and the reelection of pro-European president Maia Sandu, Russia is resorting to hybrid warfare against the country’s government by destabilizing Transnistria — but with little real leverage left in Moldova, there is little chance that Moscow will achieve anything other than weakening its own puppet state within the country.
5. Protests hit Montenegro as the country announced a new weapons law in the wake of a mass shooting that killed 12 people
Following a mass shooting on New Year’s Day that claimed 12 lives in Cetinje, the traditional capital of Montenegro, protests have broken out in the country demanding the resignation of several key government ministers amid what demonstrators called their failure to protect citizens’ lives. The shooting was already the second in Cetinje in three years, and protestors blamed state authorities for failing to implement adequate measures since then to prevent the latest massacre. Montenegrin leaders have passed a new gun law last week, and are considering a total public weapons ban after having seized weapons and ammunition across several locations in the country.
Why it matters: Montenegro has the highest rate of gun ownership in Europe, and the state’s new laws have the potential to have a significant impact on the country’s gun culture. Yet more broadly, following other high-profile shootings in Serbia which also has a high rate of gun ownership, the recent spate of mass murders suggests that low-level civilian violence is becoming a problem across the Western Balkans, where militarized populations and the enduring legacies of the wars of the 1990s have created conditions for explosive, localized killings unseen in Europe in years.
Other stories to watch:
— As Finland seizes Russian ship, Estonia launches naval patrols (Politico Europe)
— Ceremonies mark full membership of Bulgaria and Romania in Europe’s Schengen travel zone (Associated Press)
— Estonian anti-drone mini missile to be tested in Ukraine (Defense News)
— Orban’s Opponent Magyar Calls for Early Elections in Hungary (Bloomberg)
— Bosnia peace envoy declares Serb parliament's orders illegal (Reuters)
— Instead of partying, thousands turn New Year celebration into anti-government protest in Serbia (Associated Press)
— Political Tensions Test Unity of Kosovo’s Police Force (Balkan Insight)
— North Macedonia PM invited to Trump inauguration (Ekathimerini)