Ukraine destroys crucial Russian ammo depots, Warsaw and Kyiv trade barbs behind the scenes, and a Hungarian company is linked to exploding pagers in Lebanon
September 16-22 in Eastern Europe
Apologies for the late publication today — news events in the Middle East today have taken up much of my morning and afternoon. Thanks for understanding!
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukrainian drones destroyed two massive ammunition depots deep inside Russia as Russian forces moved closer to key town of Pokrovsk
In one of Kyiv’s most dramatic moves of the last month, Ukrainian drones struck two enormous ammunition depots in Russia, one in Toropets in Tver Oblast and the other in Tikhoretsk in Krasnodar Krai, adjacent to occupied Crimea. The Toropets depot reportedly held up to 30,000 tons of small arms ammunition, rockets, mortar rounds, and ballistic missiles, while the Tikhoretsk depot was reportedly one of the three largest ammunition storage sites used by Russia, according to Ukraine. Meanwhile though, Russian troops continued to advance toward the key Donbas logistics hub of Pokrovsk, reaching within 10 km of the town. Despite this, Zelensky has stated that he is ready to present a secretive new plan for Kyiv’s victory in the war to Joe Biden, and will continue to push him to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russia.
Why it matters: According to Estonian intelligence, the strike on Toropets has the potential to have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine, and British intelligence assessments have stated that it may also hamper Russia’s efforts to retake parts of Kursk Oblast that remain occupied by Ukraine. The degree to which these twin strikes will impede Russia’s continued advance toward Pokrovsk remains to be seen though, and too little of Zelensky’s victory plan is currently public knowledge to accurately judge its impact on the war in the coming months.
2. Poland and Ukraine engaged in rare diplomatic spats over Crimea, the brief detention of a Ukrainian boxer, and Polish support for Kyiv
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski reportedly caused a stir when he apparently suggested that Crimea could be put under a UN mandate instead of being directly returned to Ukrainian authority as part of a future settlement to the war, angering Ukraine’s foreign minister and the Crimean Tatar community. Sikorski later clarified his comments, stating they were made purely in hypothetical terms, but the row took place after an argument was reported between Sikorski and Zelensky in discussions about Poland’s support for Ukraine, which Sikorski had described as conditional. Zelensky was also previously “outraged” when Ukrainian heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk was briefly detained and put in handcuffs at Kraków airport in Poland before being later released.
Why it matters: Despite long being stalwart allies since February 2022, Poland and Ukraine’s relationship has been strained by various crises over the last year, including the drama surrounding the farmers’ protests along the Polish-Ukrainian border. These latest incidents come after Polish leaders stated that Ukraine would only be admitted to the EU if it allow the exhumation of Poles killed by Ukrainian militias in the Volhynia Massacres during World War II — a demand that has roiled Ukraine’s leadership. Although the Polish-Ukrainian partnership will surely survive and endure this period, Poland will want to refashion the relationship in a way that serves it just as much as it serves Ukraine. I covered this long-running shift in UnHerd back in May.
3. A Hungarian company was tied to exploding Hezbollah pagers in Lebanon, triggering a back-and-forth between Budapest and Bulgaria
In the wake of Israel’s sophisticated and wide-ranging pager attack on Hezbollah’s sphere of influence in Lebanon, a Hungarian company, BAC Consulting, has been tied to the pagers along with Gold Apollo in Taiwan. The woman under whose name the company was reportedly registered has reportedly received threats since the revelation and has been interviewed by Hungary’s Secret Service. Hungary’s international spokesperson Zoltán Kovács stated that the company had no manufacturing sites in Hungary, and Hungarian media have instead pointed to a company in Bulgaria which they claim was behind their production. Bulgaria in turn has denied that the pagers were manufactured on its territory.
Why it matters: Despite these denials and finger-pointing by Hungary and Bulgaria, what we know is that BAC Consulting was likely set up as a shell company by Israeli intelligence, but it remains unclear how much the company’s chief knew about the operation. What is clear though is that the pager operation, which reportedly took months to execute, had a stunning level of geographic sprawl, implicating a variety of actors across two continents. The legality of such an operation under EU law is also questionable, and as investigations into the matter move forward in Hungary over the next few months, the extent and potential consequences of it will become apparent.
4. Southwestern Poland continued to face rising water levels and flood risks as the EU committed billions in aid to flood-damaged areas
Even as floodwaters receded in other parts of Central Europe, southwestern Poland, and especially the region surrounding the city of Wrocław, have continued to face rising water levels in local rivers, leading to public efforts by residents to build walls of sandbags to keep floodwaters at bay. Poland has reportedly dispatched 10,000 soldiers to help provide aid to affected communities and build further defenses. The floods, which have killed 23 people across the region, have reportedly also caused around $10 billion in damage across Poland and Czechia alone, leading EU head Ursula von der Leyen to pledge several billion dollars in aid to countries in the region after a short trip to flood-damaged areas of Poland.
Why it matters: The continued impact of the floods in Poland and Czechia this past week have derailed diplomatic visits and significantly increased Czechia’s budget deficit, undermining its effort to adhere to EU targets. Although the bloc’s funds will help both countries, along with Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and Romania, recover from the damage, the reality has started to set in throughout the region that such flooding is likely to become its new reality as Europe’s climate continues to shift.
5. A prominent trans woman in Georgia was murdered a day after the country passed a sweeping anti-LGBT censorship law
Kesaria Abramidze, a well-known Georgian model who was one of the first people in the country to publicly come out as transgender, was killed in a premeditated stabbing in her Tbilisi apartment on Wednesday, one day after the Georgian government passed a wide-ranging law that could allow for the censorship of LGBT topics in media, ban pride parades, and outlaw displaying the LGBT flag in public. The new law comes as reports have emerged that the US has prepared a package of sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, the head of the pro-Russian ruling Georgian Dream party.
Why it matters: As Georgia has moved closer to Russia and autocratic rule this year, Georgian Dream under Ivanishvili has also taken a strong traditionalist turn, branding LGBT ideas as a “Western ideology” threatening Georgian values. This law, passed a month before the country’s October parliamentary elections, is an effort to shore up support among the party’s conservative base, and is one of the most extreme laws passed against the LGBT community in Eastern Europe. Abramidze’s murder shortly afterward showcases the repressive social atmosphere that such a law helps to create and underscores its very real consequences for LGBT people in Georgia.
Other trends to watch:
— Poland arrested a Russian national for allegedly carrying out an attack earlier this year against an associate of the late Russian dissident Alexei Navalny in Lithuania.
— In a stunning move, the government of Albania promised to grant Vatican City-style national autonomy to the Bektashi Sufi Muslim order in its capital Tirana. If realized, the Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order would become the smallest state in the world, eclipsing the Vatican.
— Leaders of Serbia and Kosovo engaged in a diplomatic back-and-forth over negotiations as Kosovo’s PM Kurti accused the West of appeasing Serbia.
— Romania moved to increase its ammunition acquisition in response to Russian violations of its airspace, urging NATO to respond more robustly to Moscow’s encroachment above its territory.
— Ukraine banned Telegram on devices used by government employees and military personnel, citing the risk of Russian infiltration via the messaging app.
— Serbia reintroduced mandatory military service on Friday.
— Rising water levels in the Danube River in Hungary caused floodwaters to reach the steps of the country’s parliament in Budapest.
— Slovakia raised its VAT tax on books, claiming they are “mostly” purchased by rich people, a statement that has triggered memes across Slovakia’s online communities.