Ukraine captures North Korean troops, NATO takes over US installations in Poland, and Warsaw says it won't arrest Netanyahu

January 6-12, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Jan 13, 2025

A North Korean prisoner of war in Ukrainian custody (@ZelenskyyUa via X)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Ukraine captured its first two North Korean POWs as Russian forces appeared to bypass Pokrovsk toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

For the first time since North Korean troops have deployed to reinforce Russian troops fighting Ukrainian forces on the Kursk front, Ukraine has captured two North Korean prisoners of war last week, Ukraine’s Zelensky announced on Saturday. The pair were transferred to Kyiv for questioning. Meanwhile, Russian troops on the move further southeast in the Donbas appeared to bypass the strategic crossroad town of Pokrovsk by moving around the city toward a highway linking the region with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, whose capital Dnipro had been the target of frequent Russian strikes throughout the war.

Why it matters: The capture of the North Korean POWs provides the first indisputable proof that soldiers from the country have joined the fight in Kursk, and may provide a window into the level of casualties North Koreans are suffering and details about their military posture. In the Donbas, Russia’s surprising move to bypass Pokrovsk could signal one of two things — either Moscow wants to proceed with its conquest of the Donbas and return to capture Pokrovsk at a later date, or it is in fact trying to encircle the city by setting up positions to its west that would confound existing Ukraine’s battle plans. Looking more broadly however, it appears once again that Russia is seeking to maximize its gains on the ground in the region however it can rather than getting bogged down in Pokrovsk ahead of Trump’s inauguration and the potential negotiations that he may soon try to set up. According to Trump, a meeting with Putin is already in the works, during which the contours of the president-elect’s approach to negotiations may well become more apparent.

2. NATO took over US installations in Poland as Poland backed Trump’s calls for raising NATO defense spending to 5% of GDP

With Trump’s second administration on the horizon, NATO has assumed command and control of American air defense installations in Poland last week, in an effort to Trump-proof US assets in the country that remain vital for Poland’s national security and weapons shipment pipeline to Ukraine. The move however has taken place as Poland’s government has come out in support of Trump’s demand that NATO countries raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, despite also organizing a “show of unity” trip to Washington after Trump’s inauguration along with France and Germany in response to Trump’s threats to place tariffs on the EU and undermine Ukraine aid.

Why it matters: NATO’s takeover of US assets in Poland is the most significant move so far to Trump-proof America’s influence along NATO’s eastern frontier, and signals a greater role for the alliance in the day-to-day operation of military infrastructure in one of its most critical member states. The move may also work in Europe’s favor with Trump as it shows him that US allies are stepping up to take security burdens off American shoulders, as does Poland’s support for the 5% spending goal. Nevertheless, Poland and the two other members of the Weimar Triangle remain apprehensive enough about Trump’s attitude toward Europe to plan a trip to DC together — which despite being billed as a show of unity, may in fact be more of a show of force.

3. In a symbolic move, Poland said it would not execute the ICC warrant against Netanyahu, becoming the first EU country to do so

Poland’s government on Thursday announced that it would not execute the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes if he arrived in the country for the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the German death camp at Auschwitz. The move is largely symbolic, as Israel had already stated that Netanyahu will abstain from the visit, sending his education minister in his stead. Poland’s move marks the first time that a European country has officially declared it would refuse to execute the ICC’s warrant, triggering protests in Warsaw on Friday.

Why it matters: Despite taking place within the context of a state visit to Auschwitz, something that is something of a sacred cow in Polish-Israeli relations, Poland’s move to clear Netanyahu of any threats of arrest demonstrates just how limited the sway of international institutions has become in an age of increasing realpolitik. In an age of increasing securitization in NATO’s east, Poland sees its relationship with Israel as important for its defense industry, and like many of Israel’s allies, is willing to sacrifice the ICC’s dictates in the interest of maintaining these bilateral ties — a decision that might have led to international outcry in years past.

4. NATO and Estonia sent naval vessels to guard undersea cables in the Baltic amid suspected sabotage attempts by Russia

In the wake of damage to several telecommunication cables and a broken power cable between Finland and Estonia, NATO has deployed a fleet of 10 ships to secure maritime infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, while Estonia has concurrently launched patrols in the sea of its own to protect a cable sending electricity from Finland to Estonia. The moves come after Finland previously seized a Russian cargo ship accused of causing the damage to the power cable, forcing it to dock at the port of Porvoo while it conducts a criminal investigation into the matter.

Why it matters: The NATO and Estonian naval deployments mark a significant uptick in military activity in the Baltic, and underscore just how serious Russia’s hybrid war in the sea has become since Finland and Sweden joined the alliance in 2023 and 2024. It also highlights that NATO countries are taking the dangers posed by non-military Russian vessels in the sea seriously for the first time. Yet just as Russia ramps up its attempts to sabotage NATO infrastructure in the area, the resulting surge in NATO activity in the sea is increasingly constraining Russia’s field of operation, which may make it difficult for Moscow to resupply its Kaliningrad exclave going forward.

5. In a surprising move, the Biden administration levied sanctions against a Hungarian minister close to Viktor Orbán

The US placed sanctions last week on Antal Rogán, the Minister of the Prime Minister's Cabinet Office and a close confidante of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, accusing him of corruption and running a “kleptocratic ecosystem.” In addition to running Orbán’s cabinet, Rogán is also responsible for Hungary’s domestic secret services, which among other agencies have been deemed untrustworthy by other European governments due to Hungary’s closeness to Putin.

Why it matters: A move like this is nearly unheard of between fellow members of NATO, and demonstrates how low US-Hungary relations have sunk under the Biden administration due to the country’s rule of law battles with the EU and Orbán’s ties to Russia. With Trump returning to office in a week, Hungary is likely counting on him to reverse its fortunes. Nevertheless, other European states may soon follow suit after Biden, making Hungary’s future in NATO and the EU even more turbulent than it already is.

The Eastern Flank

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