Trump's Ukraine talks approach collapse, Estonia spends 5% of GDP on defense, and a CIA deputy's son is killed in Ukraine

April 22-28, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Apr 28, 2025

The aftermath of massive Russian strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine on April 24, 2025 (State Emergency Service of Ukraine via Wikimedia Commons)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump criticized Putin as Russia bombed Ukrainian cities, leaving the future of the Ukraine-Russia talks hanging in the balance

Trump’s Ukraine talks faced yet another dramatic week filled with headline-grabbing developments, but with little progress toward a deal of any kind, their collapse seemed more certain than ever. Shortly after appearing to soften some of its most hardline war aims by offering to stop the invasion of Ukraine along the current frontlines, Russia pummeled Kyiv late last week in what was likely its largest strike on the Ukrainian capital since last summer. In a post that has already gained infamy online, Trump responded with a rare rebuke of Putin, commanding him to “STOP!” the bombing campaign. Unsurprisingly though, Putin has continued striking Ukraine, hitting the city of Pavlohrad on Friday. Shortly before Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome on Saturday, Trump met privately with Zelensky for the first time since the pair’s Oval Office fight in late February, and although the Ukrainian president hailed the meeting as potentially “historic,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that the US would decide this week whether it will continue the Ukraine-Russia talks. “We’re close, but we’re not close enough,” Rubio said. As if to underscore this point, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that it was “imperative” that any peace deal to end the war include the international recognition of Russian control over Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions Russia officially annexed, thus walking back its earlier offer. Additionally, after declaring a (likely performative) three-day ceasefire starting on May 8, the Kremlin stated that it had completed the recapture of Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk Oblast, for first time acknowledging North Korea’s assistance there.

Why it matters: Given that Moscow’s position on the war has in fact hardened over the last week following Trump’s decision to offer American recognition of Russian control of Crimea, the peace talks at present seem as good as dead. For Putin, who had hoped to secure a degree of international legitimacy for his actions in Ukraine through the talks, this outcome will be less than ideal, but will change little about his current position of strength in the war. Moreover, it will likely mean that Trump’s team will now begin negotiating directly with Russia about normalizing political and economic relations, something had been one of Trump’s reasons for seeking to settle the war in Ukraine. What this will mean for Ukraine remains unclear — but with the likely suspension of any further American aid following the end of the talks, Ukraine will be forced to rely almost entirely on Europe, thus putting its very survival in the face of Russia’s continued invasion at stake.

2. With a new budget increase, Estonia became the first country in Europe to spend more than 5% of GDP on defense

Estonia last week approved a defense budget hike of $3.2 billion alongside a four-year defense spending plan, making it the first country in European NATO to spend more than 5% of its GDP on defense. Although Lithuania and Latvia had both previously approved plans to that would grow their defense budgets to 5% of GDP or more, Estonia is the first country to put forward a concrete budget increase to bring such plans to life. Following the announcement, Estonia also approved the construction of an ammunition factory that will bolster the country’s own ammunition production goals while enabling explosives exports to other NATO militaries in the region. The Trump administration had previously urged European NATO states to reach the 5% figure in order to reduce the continent’s reliance on US military assistance.

Why it matters: While Trump’s 5% figure had once seemed farfetched, Estonia’s budget hike not only indicates that it is possible, but that countries along Russia’s periphery view it as imperative for their national security. Along with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, Poland, which already boasts the largest army in European NATO besides Turkey, also plans to raise its military budget to 5% of GDP in 2026. As questions swirl about Europe’s ability to support Ukraine and defend itself in the face of the dramatic shifts in US policy toward Europe, such moves by the Baltic states offer a potential bright spot in a European landscape that otherwise appears woefully unprepared for the challenges ahead. Nevertheless, such localized efforts will hardly be enough to repel future Russian aggression, meaning that European states must view countries like Estonia as models to emulate if they wish to secure their futures.

3. The son of a deputy CIA director was revealed to have been killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine

According to an investigation by iStories, Michael Gloss, the son of CIA Deputy Director for Innovation Julianne Gallina Gloss, was killed in April 2024 while fighting in the Russian army in Ukraine. Gloss, aged 21 when he died, had apparently been backpacking around the world before ending up in Russia, where he joined the army to apparently combat the American “military-industrial complex.” Although the circumstances of his death remain unclear, he seems to have been killed while fighting near Soledar in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. His death in Ukraine has been confirmed by the CIA, although it did not mention his allegiance to Russia.

Why it matters: Although Gloss’s death in service of the Russian military was almost certainly an independent event with no wider connections to America’s national security apparatus, it is a major embarrassment for the CIA and plays squarely into the Kremlin’s propaganda about the war. Beyond geopolitics though, Gloss’s story speaks to how deftly Russia has been able to weaponize dissatisfaction with US power internationally among certain segments of the American Left to bolster its own image as an opponent of American imperialism, despite fighting a brutal imperialist war of its own in Ukraine.

4. Wanted Bosnian Serb leader Dodik evaded an arrest attempt by threatening Bosnian special police with violence

Over a month since a warrant was issued for his arrest, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik evaded the first official attempt to arrest him last week in East Sarajevo, where police forces loyal to Dodik and the Republika Srpska entity he rules threatened Bosnian state police with force if they tried to carry out the arrest. Dodik had been sentenced to one year in prison and banned from politics for six years after being found guilty of violating Bosnia’s constitutional order, following which the Serb-majority Republika Srpska entity, which makes up one half of Bosnia’s federal state, passed laws nullifying the decisions of the national judiciary and allowing for the creation of a local military force. Dodik has moved freely across Bosnia’s borders despite the arrest, and will attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow next month.

Why it matters: The saga surrounding Dodik’s sentencing, which has created the most significant political crisis in Bosnia since the end of the Bosnian War in 1995, has repeatedly shed light on the weakness of the country’s state institutions. Their inability to stand up to Dodik and his security forces in order to arrest him only further underscores their inefficacy, and creates dangerous precedents for the rule of law in Bosnia. While Bosnian authorities likely refrained from violence in the encounter with Dodik to avoid further enflaming ethnic tensions across the country, Bosnia may well be headed in that direction anyway if the impasse isn’t settled soon.

5. Lithuania reported that Belarus and Russia have been planning and carrying out attacks against Belarusian dissidents in the country

Lithuania’s State Security Department revealed on Wednesday that since 2023, Russia and Belarus have been plotting attacks and conducting hybrid actions against members of the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania, aiming to sow ethnic tensions in the country and undermine the government-in-exile of Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who is based in Lithuania’s capital Vilnius. While these actions started out as information warfare conducted through social media, they have since spread to attempts to physically assault members of the Belarusian community. Tsikhanouskaya responded on Monday to the revelations, saying they showcased the weakness of the Lukashenko and Putin regimes.

Why it matters: While certainly a national security threat, such attempts at low-grade hybrid warfare by Minsk and Moscow do indeed indicate that they have few substantive tools at their disposal to undermine the Belarusian opposition living abroad, and are forced instead to rely on crude incitements carried out by agents recruited through Telegram to foment discord. Nevertheless, despite the Lithuanian state’s attempt to get ahead of such actions by making them public, it is possible that Belarusian and Russian attempts to go after Tsikhanouskaya and other opposition leaders may continue to escalate, especially if or when Russia’s focus shifts beyond Ukraine to NATO’s frontline states themselves.

The Eastern Flank

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