Trump's Ukraine peace plans clarify, Romania nullifies presidential elections, and Georgia escalates its protest crackdown

December 2-8 in Eastern Europe

Dec 09, 2024

Zelensky, Macron, and Trump in Paris this weekend (Screenshot via Voice of America/YouTube)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump met Zelensky after revelations that his new Ukraine peace plans included territorial concessions but no NATO membership

Following Donald Trump’s meeting with France’s Macron and Ukraine’s Zelensky at the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris on Saturday, the US president-elect stated that Ukraine wanted to “make a deal” with Russia, called for an “immediate ceasefire” in the war, but also stated that America’s withdrawal from NATO was a real possibility. The meeting in Paris took place against the backdrop of increasingly detailed reports about the Trump team’s plans for a peace deal in Ukraine, with key members of his circle including soon-to-be Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg floating plans last week that included significant territorial concessions by Ukraine but without the possibility of NATO membership as Zelensky himself had proposed. Other proposals included the establishment of autonomous areas in eastern Ukraine and the creation of a de-militarized zone along the current line of contact. A day after the meeting in Paris, Trump also stated that Ukraine would likely receive less military aid once he takes office.

Why it matters: Despite at some moments appearing to embrace Zelensky, Trump has time and time again shown that he opposes key Ukrainian goals like regaining lost territories and gaining solid security guarantees from NATO in the near-term. Despite mentioning Ukraine’s need for robust security guarantees on Sunday, Trump and his team appear to be prioritizing bringing the conflict to an end at all costs rather than advocating for a solution that leaves Ukraine secure. Yet even the plans they have put forward already have been met with derision from Russia — an oligarch close the Kremlin called Kellogg’s plan a non-starter for talks, and demanded discussions not just on Ukraine, but on the future of Europe as a whole. Despite Zelensky’s best efforts to cozy up to Trump, he may find himself staring at a worst case scenario in his country after all.

2. Romania annulled the first round of its presidential election amid Russian interference to boost far-right candidate, fueling protests

Romania’s highest court decided on Friday to nullify the first round of voting in the country’s presidential elections last month after it found that it had been marred by widespread Russian interference. Declassified government documents showed that hundreds of thousands of inauthentic accounts on TikTok had promoted far-right candidate Calin Georgescu, who ended up winning the first round of voting, despite not being labeled as election content as mandated by Romanian law. According to the government, Russia was behind this activity and had also carried out tens of thousands of cyberattacks against election websites and other digital infrastructure in the country. The court’s decision led to a far-right protest on Sunday in Bucharest, before which Romanian police arrested dozens of armed men heading to the event.

Why it matters: The top court’s nullification of the election marks a potentially first-of-its-kind development within the EU, and restarts Romania’s electoral calendar — meaning that Romanians may have to wait months before voting again. The intelligence findings surrounding the vote however highlight an unprecedented Russian effort to disrupt the Romanian election, indicating that Russia clearly sees Romania, a frontline NATO state, as vulnerable enough to focus its hybrid warfare efforts on. The nullification however has also earned the ire of Romania’s — and Europe’s — far-right, fueling fears of political violence in the country moving forward.

3. Georgia’s pro-Russian government’s protest crackdown escalated, with shocking violence against civil society and opposition MPs

Weeks after protests escalated in Georgia following the pro-Russian government’s announcement that it would suspend EU membership talks, the state’s crackdown has expanded dramatically, with over 400 protestors arrested and 300 beaten and tortured by police, all while the state has raided opposition party offices and beaten an opposition politician unconscious while bringing him into custody. The wave of arrests and violence has expanded beyond protestors, with state authorities arresting opposition-minded actors and abusing journalists covering the demonstrations.

Why it matters: With the ruling Georgian Dream government adopting an ever more iron-fisted approach to the protests, Georgia’s opposition increasingly fears the country may be headed toward a Belarus-like scenario in which a broad assault on civil society would stifle all anti-government activity. While it remains to be seen whether the Georgian government is strong enough to carry out such a crackdown, it appears they are prepared to double down not only on their suspension of EU talks, but also their highly contested victory in the country’s October elections. With the opposition and the country’s president vowing to continue opposing Georgia Dream, it increasingly looks like Georgia faces a choice — revolution, or autocratic rule.

4. Orbán’s spy agency hacked EU officials’ devices as concerns arose about the security of intelligence shared with Hungary

European Union officials with the bloc’s anti-fraud office visiting Hungary were spied on, had their phones wiretapped, and their hotel rooms searched by the country’s central intelligence agency in 2015 and 2017, according to reports last week. The officials were apparently investigating a company owned by Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s son-in-law. Also last week, reports by Hungarian media indicated that Hungary’s controversial Sovereignty Protection Office, which was condemned by the US for potentially endangering the country’s civil society sector, will be able to access sensitive intelligence shared with Hungary by its NATO partners.

Why it matters: Hungary’s authoritarian-style treatment of EU officials is a major breach of the bloc’s laws and norms, and comes at a time of already sky-high tensions between Budapest and Brussels. Given the degree to which Orbán’s government has become hostile toward the EU and NATO on the political, diplomatic, and security levels, it is very likely that Hungary will become isolated within both blocs as a threat to European and trans-Atlantic interests, short of being ejected from them outright.

5. For the first time, Zelensky revealed the full casualty numbers of Ukrainians killed and wounded in the conflict so far

In response to Trump’s claim on Truth Social that “400,000” Ukrainians had been killed and wounded in the war with Russia, Ukraine’s Zelensky revealed for the first time since the Russian invasion that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 370,000 had been wounded in the conflict, compared to a combined total of 600,000 dead and wounded on the Russian side according to other sources. Zelensky had previously refused to publicize the number of wounded Ukrainians for fear of giving up too much information to Russia.

Why it matters: The number of Ukrainian military casualties Zelensky has provided are significantly less than those cited by it Western allies, which have generally put the number of dead between 57,000 and 100,000 and the number of wounded as high as 400,000. Trump’s reveal of a casualty total that was close to Zelensky’s numbers likely forced the Ukrainian president’s hand in the matter — but the fact that Zelensky decided to make such estimates public showcases that he is doing everything possible to demonstrate a transparency to the Trump team that he hopes will help Ukraine’s prospects in negotiations under American auspices.

The Eastern Flank

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