Trump's envoy spreads Russian propaganda, Poland leaves anti-mine treaty, and Moscow's influence grows in Serbia

March 18-24, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Mar 24, 2025

The aftermath of a Russian missile attack on the city of Sumy on March 24, 2025, as peace talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia took place in Saudi Arabia (State Emergency Service of Ukraine via Wikimedia Commons)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. The US held talks with Ukraine and Russia on a limited ceasefire as Trump’s Moscow envoy Witkoff repeated Russian propaganda

American negotiators held back-to-back meetings first with Ukrainian diplomats on Sunday and then with Russian officials on Monday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, whose primary aim was to iron out the technical details of a limited ceasefire in which both sides would stop attacks on each other’s energy facilities. A new agreement on the security of Black Sea shipping has also reportedly been a subject of the talks. New York real estate developer and Trump’s envoy to Putin Steve Witkoff, who leads the US delegation in Riyadh, stunned the world this past week when he made comments echoing Russian propaganda on Ukraine — in an interview with Tucker Carlson, Witkoff claimed, among other things, that Russia doesn’t want to conquer all of Ukraine, and that all it wants are the five regions where its forces currently hold territory, despite being unable to name any of them but one. He suggested that Ukraine is holding up the peace process by not giving up these territories, citing Russian “referendums” in the regions that showed that locals are in favor of joining Russia. Witkoff failed to mention that these referendums had taken place under military occupation, did not poll parts of these regions not under Russian control, frequently featured state coercion, and were broadly rejected by the international community. Witkoff also lambasted British plans to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine after a peace deal as “a posture and a pose.” As talks in Riyadh continued, Russia launched strikes against the Ukrainian city of Sumy, injuring at least 74.

Why it matters: Witkoff’s statements, although shocking, are at this point hardly surprising. Ukraine’s Zelensky himself responded to them by stating the obvious — that the American team is being influenced by Russia. By once again painting Ukraine as the unreasonable party due to its unwillingness to give up its own territory, Witkoff’s team is likely laying the groundwork for Trump to force it into a bad deal with Russia down the line, even if the current ceasefire negotiations succeed. The limited scope of the talks at the moment mean they very well may be successful — but broadening the ceasefire to a general one will be difficult, as Putin is likely to put conditions on it just like he has in the past when similar proposals have come up. Fundamentally, Russia continues to be uninterested in budging from its maximalist positions on the outcome of the war, and unless the situation shifts on the battlefield, there is little Trump, Witkoff, or their team can do to change that.

2. Poland and the Baltic states withdrew from a major anti-personnel mine treaty amid plans to mine their borders with Russia and Belarus

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia announced on Tuesday that they would be withdrawing from the Ottowa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines, citing the threats posed to them from Russia and Belarus. The announcement took place as the four countries look for new ways to strengthen their frontiers with Russia and Belarus through an interconnected network of fortifications along NATO’s eastern border. Poland is so far the only country that has confirmed that it will deploy anti-personnel mines along its border as part of its East Shield initiative, stating that it is aiming to lay up to one million of them. Lithuania meanwhile is considering following suit.

Why it matters: Although these countries’ withdrawals are not finalized yet, once they formally take place, they will be the first states to ever exit the treaty. Ukraine, despite being a signatory, has received transfers of anti-personnel mines from the US in 2024. Poland’s intent to deploy up to a million such mines along its eastern borders is a clear response to Russia’s style warfare that relies on overwhelming manpower, in which wave after wave of expendable soldiers slowly wear down their enemies. Anti-personnel mines would help Poland and its allies guard against the polar opposite threat as well — small teams of infiltrators, like the little green men that swept into the Donbas in 2014, who would otherwise have been unaffected by munitions like anti-tank mines. Although the withdrawal from the treaty may be controversial, it demonstrates how powerfully the threat to NATO’s east has shifted the calculus in the region, and what lengths governments are willing to go to to guard against the uncertainty of the post-Ukraine period.

3. Russian and Serbian leaders met to discuss the protests in Serbia, calling them a Western-backed “color revolution”

After months of intense protests that have seen the largest demonstrations in Serbia’s history, the secretary of Russia's Security Council Sergei Shoigu met Serbia’s deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin in Moscow to discuss the protests, calling them a Western-instigated “color revolution” — a term Russia has used to describe other protest movements against Russian-backed regimes in Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan. Vulin also revealed last week that Russian intelligence services had helped Serbian authorities respond to the protests, and had been in constant contact with Belgrade about how to contain them. Also last week, more than four months after the train station roof collapse in the city of Novi Sad that triggered the current protests, one of the people initially injured in the event died in a hospital in the city, becoming its 16th casualty. Thousands held vigils to honor him, and silent protests and traffic blockades took place throughout the country.

Why it matters: Although Russia has long been close to the government of Serbia’s nationalist President Aleksandar Vučić, the overt confirmation of its support for Serbian authorities as they’ve tried to tamp down on the demonstrations shows just how deeply Moscow’s special services are ingrained in the country. However, last week’s meetings also highlight just how concerned the Kremlin is about Vučić’s situation in Serbia, and suggest it is seriously worried his government is at risk of being toppled. As Serbia’s leadership continues to weaken, Russia’s direct influence will only grow stronger in the country, and much more direct and aggressive interventions by its services will become ever more likely.

4. Lithuania and Czechia announced that they may send troops to Ukraine after a peace deal, the first in NATO’s east to do so

Czech President Petr Pavel and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda both stated they would be open to sending their troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force in the country after an eventual settlement with Russia, becoming the first Eastern European states to definitively commit to deploying soldiers after the war. Several states are likely to join a coalition of the willing headed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron which will collectively send troops to Ukraine, including Finland, Spain, Turkey, Australia, and others. Estonia and Latvia are likely to join, but have not made any official commitments yet. Poland’s leaders have stated they will not send troops to Ukraine, but this is likely an effort to appeal to voters ahead of presidential elections.

Why it matters: Despite being ridiculed by Witkoff, Starmer’s coalition is steadily growing, although the precise number of its member countries remains both unclear and closely guarded. Both Czechia and Lithuania have long been stalwart supporters of Ukraine’s defense, and both have endured hybrid pressure from Russia. Although it is unsurprising to see them included in Starmer’s coalition, their “membership” bodes well for other states along NATO’s eastern flank to follow in their footsteps. It also demonstrates that, even though these states have the most to lose from potential direct Russian moves against NATO in years to come, they view putting boots on the ground in service of Ukraine’s security to be in their own best interest as well — something that will likely move Poland to shifts its stance on the matter.

5. Hungary banned LGBTQ+ marches in the country, stating it would use facial recognition technology to target anyone who attends

Following recent threats from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to crack down on media organizations, NGOs, and dissidents in the country, his government moved to ban LGBTQ+ Pride marches in the country last week for “the protection of Hungarian families and the safety of our children.” The law banning Pride marches also allows the state to use facial recognition software to surveil and pursue anyone who continues to attend them. Opposition MPs waved flares in the Hungarian Parliament in protest of the law, which is only the latest in a long string of moves targeting the LGBTQ+ community in Hungary under Orbán.

Why it matters: While other countries in Europe like Poland, Serbia, Ukraine, and Georgia have periodically or locally banned Pride events in the past, Hungary joins only Russia in passing a nationwide ban. Not only is this is a massive blow for the LGBTQ+ community in Hungary, but it also only further expands the Hungarian surveillance state and the government’s ability to target free speech in the country.

The Eastern Flank

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