Trump supports new Russia sanctions, Moscow captures key Ukrainian mineral field, and Pride marchers defy Orbán

June 24-30, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Jul 01, 2025

Damage to an apartment in Kyiv, Ukraine following a Russian attack on June 23, 2025 (State Emergency Service of Ukraine via Wikimedia Commons)

I realize I’ve been posting these round-ups later than I would have liked recently — I’ll aim to get these up sooner in the coming weeks. Thanks for waiting!

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump gave his approval for a 500% tariff bill targeting Russia’s trade partners after recommitting to NATO at its 2025 summit

Although it is unlikely to be a permanent shift knowing his often schizophrenic thinking on European defense and Russia, it appears that, against all odds, Trump has defected to Europe’s camp during the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague. Leaders at the conference went out of their way to appeal to Trump’s sensibilities, including the now-infamous comment from NATO Chief Mark Rutte in which he referred to Trump as the “daddy” of the alliance, ultimately leading to all members but Spain agreeing to an alliance-wide defense spending increase to 3.5% of GDP over the next ten years, with an additional 1.5% spent on military infrastructure. Having previously waffled on the matter, Trump also verbally recommitted to NATO’s Article V on collective defense, and on Ukraine, said he was considering sending additional Patriot systems to Kyiv. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated after the summit that he believed that Trump now saw that Russia was the party to blame for extending the War in Ukraine — a notion underscored back in Washington by Trump’s apparent support for new Russia sanctions. According to Senator Lindsey Graham, Trump had given verbal support to a sanctions bill for the first time that would place 500% tariffs on countries trading oil, gas, and uranium with Russia, which Graham expects will pass Congress in July before being signed by the president.

Why it matters: If Graham’s statement about Trump’s support for his sanctions bill is true, such tariffs would be the most significant action Trump will have taken against Moscow since taking office, and would send shockwaves through the global economy, especially in the Global South and East. Of course, it remains to be seen how Trump would actually implement such tariffs, and how governments like China and India would respond — given that China is already likely supplying Russia with weapons covertly, there’s no reason to believe it wouldn’t do the same with oil, gas, and other materials. On NATO, the combined 5% of GDP spending hike is good news for Eastern Europe, as is Trump’s commitment to Article V — however, as I laid out in my post this weekend about the NATO summit, by doubling down on the American security umbrella, Europe seems to have reneged on more creative solutions for the continent’s security, which are vital for the long-term defense of NATO’s eastern flank. And although Trump may have developed a temporary soft spot for Ukraine, the NATO summit’s clear sidelining of Ukraine bodes ill for the future of the war, as does his continued ambivalence on resuming decisive military support for Kyiv. Of course, the million-dollar question remains what Trump’s attitude toward Russia truly is — despite the sanctions bill, and despite his friendly reception at the summit, there is no indication Trump has given up his dream of striking a grand trade deal with Putin and normalizing relations, which would make all of this current progress moot.

2. Russia fired over 500 missiles and drones at Ukraine and captured a key lithium deposit in a blow to Trump’s minerals deal

Speaking of Russia, Putin seems to have shed any remaining façade of participating in Trump’s moribund peace process this past week. Russia fired 537 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities over the weekend in the largest air assault of the entire war, targeting cities like Kharkiv, Kherson, and Kyiv while massing 50,000 troops 12 miles from the city of Sumy in preparation for an upcoming assault. The Kremlin is also apparently seeking the aid of additional North Korean troops for its summer offensive in Ukraine, and has reportedly started trying to recruit Ukrainians to carry out suicide attacks throughout the country. Perhaps most tellingly however, Russian forces recently captured the Shevchenko lithium deposit in the Donbas late last week, which was one of the country’s most commercially viable mineral fields that were prime candidates for investment under the minerals deal the Trump administration had signed with Ukraine in May.

Why it matters: Moscow’s capture of the Shevchenko deposit is the clearest sign yet that the minerals deal with Ukraine was truly a red herring of progress in the conflict, and that it will likely have no impact on Ukraine’s security despite Trump’s promises to the contrary. The deal was supposed to give the US a stake in protecting Ukrainian territory from Russian attacks — but ultimately failed to protect the most important mineral field in the country’s contested east from being seized. The fact that America has not followed up its words with actions is a signal to Putin that Trump has no cards left to play in the conflict (to borrow the US president’s own phrasing), and his recent actions have very clearly reflected this belief. Even though Putin’s summer offensive has so far failed to meet expectations, its continued march forward means it is only a matter of time before it reaches cities like Sumy, and despite Ukraine’s significant tactical victories against Russia over the last 6 months, it is clear Putin will throw everything in his toolkit to keep his war machine well oiled and deadly.

3. Despite Orbán’s LGBTQ ban, Budapest Pride reached record attendance of over 100,000 in a major blow to his government

On Saturday, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán saw a key facet of his domestic culture war against progressivism blow up in his face. Even after he banned LGBTQ Pride events in Hungary and threatened “legal consequences” for anyone trying to take part in such activities, over 100,000 people attended a Pride parade in Budapest organized by the city’s mayor that quickly turned into an anti-government march with nearly as many EU flags as rainbow ones. According to reporting, people traveled from across the country to attend the march, which Orbán called “repulsive” and claimed had been organized by the EU itself. While previous marches had only attracted a couple thousand people, Saturday’s march was the largest Pride event in Hungarian history.

Why it matters: Orbán had framed his Pride ban as an effort to protect children from homosexuality and sexualized narratives, while also framing the LGBTQ movement as an ideology promoted by Western Europeans in Brussels. It fit squarely into his domestic political agenda to enforce tradition, focus on the family, and to fight back against the EU, and for his ban to backfire so spectacularly is not only embarrassing for him, but a major blow to his political legitimacy. Over the last year and a half, Orbán’s government has been assailed by anti-corruption challengers like Péter Magyar, and has already found its family values-oriented image tarnished by a scandal involving the coverup of a child sex abuse case that led to Hungarian President Katalin Novak to resign in early 2024. With Magyar’s Tisza Party securing a massive 15% lead over Orbán’s Fidesz Party in a poll earlier this month, Orbán’s position could not be shakier ahead of Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary election in less than a year’s time — meaning that Saturday’s rebellion could be just as impactful as it is symbolic.

4. Serbian police used force against anti-government protestors as Russia and President Vučić called the protests a “color revolution”

Nearly 8 months since they first touched off in November 2024 after a rail station awning fell and killed 16 people in Serbia’s second city Novi Sad, the country’s protest movement has reached its logical conclusion — open calls for an end of longtime President Aleksandar Vučić’s government, and a new police crackdown to accompany them. Demonstrators at a protest in Belgrade numbering 140,000 people called for early elections and an end to Vučić’s 12 years in power in one of the largest protests in Serbia in recent months, claiming that the corruption that had led to the Novi Sad station collapse was indicative of widespread criminal mismanagement that went all the way to the top of Serbia’s politics. Protestors flew flares and bottles as local ultras clashed with police, who responded with force, stun grenades, and tear gas, arresting dozens, five of whom were charged with attempting to overthrow the state. On Sunday, protestors also blocked bridges and roads in Belgrade and Novi Sad, as both Vučić and his ally Russia tried to delegitimize the protests by claiming they are a “color revolution” — a foreign-backed attempt to overthrow the government.

Why it matters: Protestors have called for Vučić to step down from power before, and this is also not the first time that the Serbian president has suggested that the protests are a foreign-backed plot. But these latest events suggest a new phase in the protest movement and the state’s response to it, in which the calls for Vučić’s ouster are not just one facet of demonstrators’ broader calls for anti-corruption measures and accountability, but are indeed the central element of the movement itself. As Vučić’s government accuses protestors of attempting to overthrow the government, it appears increasingly likely that authorities will opt to mount a broader crackdown against the movement, trying to mimic what the state has done in Georgia since last year — even though Serbia’s political opposition, unlike Georgia’s, continues to be alive and well in the halls of parliament. Politically speaking, even if protestors fail to force an early election, their movement will present a significant problem for Vučić during the parliamentary elections in 2027, even though it remains unlikely that he will allow himself to be forced from power at the ballot box.

5. Georgia’s government continued its crackdown against opposition leaders as a politician started a hunger strike in Tbilisi

Georgian pro-Russian Georgian Dream government, which now effectively runs the country as a one-party state, has recently ramped up its crackdown against opposition leaders, jailing several politicians associated with its rival party, the United National Movement, as well as from other related political groupings. Meanwhile, Elene Khoshtaria, the leader of the opposition Droa Party, started a hunger strike in front of the Georgian Parliament in Tbilisi on Friday calling for an end to Georgian Dream rule, and was joined by activists shortly afterward. In one of the largest popular protests in Georgia in months, thousands gathered in Tbilisi on Sunday to protest the state’s expanding crackdown and its tightening grip over Georgia’s political landscape.

Why it matters: Georgian democracy, or what’s left of it, seems to be on its last legs, and the recent protests and hunger strikes appear to be what’s left of it as Georgian Dream attempts to stamp out its main rivals to finalize the country’s transformation into a Kremlin-backed autocracy. Nevertheless, the fight isn’t over just yet — although there is little it can do legalistically, the opposition’s energy appears to have been revitalized to an extent by recent actions and the upwelling of popular anger with the government on display in Tbilisi. Although Georgia’s path to one-party rule may be nearing its end, its people won’t go down without a fight.

The Eastern Flank

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