Trump squeezes Ukraine aid groups, protests mount against Serbia's Vučić, and Eastern Europe's gas wars escalate

January 27-February 2, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Feb 03, 2025

Trump and Zelensky in Paris in December 2024 (President of Ukraine via Wikimedia Commons)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump pushed Ukraine to hold elections as part of a truce deal with Russia as the US foreign funding freeze squeezed Ukraine aid groups

Donald Trump’s decision to freeze American foreign funding and his likely intention to shut down USAID has led several critical humanitarian organizations in Ukraine to suspend operations and threatened civil society and reform programs in the country. While stating that his administration had been in touch with the Russian side on eventual negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Trump’s team also reportedly pushed Ukraine last week to hold elections by the end of the year as part of a truce deal — something that Kyiv has stated is not possible under martial law. Ukraine’s Zelensky called Trump’s approach a “failed plan” if this was all his team had come up with so far to bring Russia to the negotiating table. Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg offered few details on the administration’s current plans, but stated that both Ukraine and Russia would have to “give a little” in the eventual peace deal.

Why it matters: The consequences of Trump’s cut to foreign aid will be immediate — many organizations providing fuel, food, and rescue operations along the frontline will be impacted, as will Ukraine’s institutions, which have long relied on American aid to fund parts of the country’s wartime state. Trump’s vision for how to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table remains as vague as ever, however in light of his recent comments implicitly suggesting Ukraine should have surrendered to Russia, his pressure on Zelensky to hold elections and his cutoff of humanitarian aid have put to rest any hope that Trump had somehow become Ukraine-pilled overnight. As his erratic foreign policy agenda continues to take shape, Trump is unlikely to approach the matter delicately — with tariffs against Russia and its ally network reportedly being prepared and with both diplomatic and material pressure on Ukraine already being deployed, his administration’s efforts to end the war at any cost are likely to be destabilizing not just for Russia and Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole.

2. Serbia’s Prime Minister resigned as anti-corruption protests continued to put pressure on President Vučić to step down

As student-led grassroots protests denouncing the deaths of 15 people killed by a collapsed train station awning stretched into their fourth month in Serbia, the country’s Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigned from his post last week in a bid for calm and “dialogue,” reportedly at President Aleksandar Vučić’s urging. The protests, which have mushroomed into much broader demonstrations calling for anti-corruption measures and government accountability, have continued even as the government has offered concessions to demonstrators, and have also increasingly set their sights on Vučić himself and his authoritarian rule. Vučić has promised to meet one of the protestors’ main demands, the release of contracts related to the train station whose awning collapsed, and has floated the possibility of snap elections following Vučević’s resignation.

Why it matters: At this point, it is safe to say that the nationwide protests present the most significant threat to Vučić’s government since he first rose to power in 2014. Nevertheless, although Vučić’s removal from power is a distinct possibility following Vučević’s ouster, it is far from a certainty — Vučić has weathered political crises before, and is known as an adept politician who has sacrificed allies like Vučević on occasion before to save his own skin. If he were to resign however, it would be a watershed moment for Serbian politics, with consequences that would ripple across the entire Balkan region and even into Hungary, where Viktor Orbán has recently deepened his ties with the Serbian leader.

Protests in Belgrade, Serbia (Via Euroalter.com)

3. Moldova sent gas to Transnistria while Hungary and Slovakia ramped up their gas transit feud with Ukraine

In an effort to contain Transnistria’s energy crisis while exerting its own political leverage over the territory, Moldova sent the breakaway pro-Russian region a gas loan late last week, and announced 20 million euros in aid for Transnistria provided by the EU. Meanwhile, tensions between Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine intensified as Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico summoned Ukraine’s ambassador to the country over Kyiv’s continued refusal to renew a transit deal for Russian gas and Zelensky’s statement on X criticizing Fico’s refusal to find alternate energy sources. Hungary once again threatened to hold up EU sanctions against Russia unless the bloc forces Ukraine to renew the deal, and said the EU should first reach an agreement with Trump before imposing sanctions. Confusingly, Orbán also claimed he supported Trump’s sanctions against Russia, but not the EU’s.

Why it matters: Moldovan energy assistance to Transnistria appears to be proceeding smoothly, and promises to have a long-term impact on Chișinău’s ability to exert political influence over the territory — potentially creating the conditions to finally pull it away from Moscow and to reincorporate it into Moldova proper. Although the row over gas transit through Ukraine continues without any clear solution in sight, it is unlikely that Slovakia and Hungary will hold their ground on the matter indefinitely — both Fico and Orbán are on shakier ground domestically than they have been in years, and it is unlikely that the EU will bend over backwards to satisfy their demands, especially since Orbán has demonstrated that his veto threats are often more performative than truly serious. His efforts to rope Trump into the matter however are telling, and demonstrate that, as the US president sows fear around the world through his tariff threats, his connections to Orbán may prove useful for the Eastern European Right in its continued political battles with Brussels.

4. Slovakia’s Fico banned Georgian fighters in Ukraine and accused Czechia of interference as he escalated claims of a coup against him

Amid claims of coup attempts against him, Slovakia’s Fico has banned Mamuka Mamulashvili, the commander of the Georgian Legion fighting against Russia in Ukraine, from entering the country alongside nine other individuals, connecting them to an alleged coup plot against his government. Although Fico gave no details about the nature of this connection, he cited photos of Mamulashvili with Slovak opposition figures as evidence. Mamulashvili himself has dismissed the claims as baseless. At the same time, Fico also accused Czech politicians, diplomats, and media of interference in Slovak internal affairs, which the Czech side also denounced as “absurd.” Czechia and Slovakia had suspended intergovernmental consultations last year.

Why it matters: Fico’s accusations come amid growing popular protests in Slovakia against his government’s foreign policy toward Ukraine and Russia and his crackdown on civil society, and the Slovak PM clearly sees concerted efforts to overthrow him by force at every turn. His attempts to connect Czech media and Georgian fighters in Ukraine to such efforts come after he previously alleged that Ukraine itself was conducting cyberattacks against Slovakia, which Kyiv firmly denied, painting a picture of a leader whose political future appears to be spiraling out of his own control. Despite the largely baseless nature of his claims, as Fico grows more desperate, he may continue to lash out at supposed enemies in Slovakia’s neighborhood, further destabilizing the country in the process.

5. Poland arrested the previous government’s justice minister minister over his ministry’s use of Pegasus to target political rivals

Polish police arrested former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro on Friday in connection with his ministry’s use of the Pegasus spyware to go after almost 600 people, including political opponents, during the previous Right-wing government’s term in power. At the request of a parliamentary committee, Ziobro was brought to a hearing to give testimony on the Law and Justice Party’s use of the spyware to target its rivals. The move comes as Poland’s centrist government elected in 2023 continues its efforts to hold the previous government’s officials accountable for criminal activity, breaches of the rule of law, and abuses of power committed between 2015 and 2023.

Why it matters: The government of Donald Tusk is ramping up its campaign against Law and Justice as Poland prepares for presidential elections in May of this year, which may see Tusk’s government expand its mandate by bringing ally Rafał Trzaskowki to the presidency. Ziobro’s arrest is one of the most high-profile arrests the government has made since 2023, but has the potential to enflame Polish political divisions like as the arrest of two Law and Justice MPs did a year ago. As Tusk grows ever more heavy-handed in his anti-corruption and reform efforts, he risks undermining his party’s chances in the presidential vote if he is not prudent — a misstep that would have a major impact on his attempt to reform Polish institutions.

The Eastern Flank

Discussion about this post