Trump sends weapons to Ukraine, Hungary and Kyiv spar over a soldier's death, and Poland's Duda lashes out at NATO allies

July 8-14, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Michał Kranz

Jul 15, 2025

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Donald Trump in the Oval Office on July 14, 2025 (Screenshot via Associated Press/YouTube)

Apologies again for the late publication today — thanks for waiting.

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump resumed military aid to Ukraine and announced additional missiles shipments via NATO while threatening Russia with tariffs

Despite Trump’s notoriously schizophrenic approach to Ukraine and Russia, even a broken clock is right twice a day. In a dramatic 180 degree shift following the Pentagon’s stoppage of vital defensive Ukraine aid the previous week, this past week, Trump announced a resumption of weapons assistance to Kyiv, specifically Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) and 155 mm caliber ammunition. Shortly afterward, Zelensky confirmed that the shipments had indeed resumed. Separately, Trump also announced on Monday that he would be sending Patriot missiles and defense batteries to Ukraine via European NATO states who would be footing the bill for them, an apparent indication of the success of Zelensky’s last-minute diplomacy following previous weapons cutoff. In addition, Trump announced that he would impose 100% tariffs on Russia’s trading partners if no peace deal to end the war is reached in 50 days — while senators from both parties led by Lindsey Graham urged Trump to back their 500% tariff bill against countries buying Russian oil, gas, and uranium, which they called a “sledgehammer” against Putin. Interestingly, during his conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte when he announced his new commitments to Ukraine, Trump suggested that First Lady Melania Trump may have played a role in his policy reversal, recounting how, after his calls with Putin, she would remind him about Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities. Speaking of which, Russia this weekend sent hundreds of armed drones against Kyiv simultaneously from all directions, and launched strikes against Lviv, Lutsk, and Chernivtsi in western Ukraine, far from the frontlines. In an attack that grabbed global headlines, a Russian drone also directly targeted and killed a one-year-old boy in Kherson, Oblast.

Why it matters: Let’s start with the good news: the emerging model in which the US sells weapons to European NATO countries that they can then either transfer to Ukraine, or replenish their own stockpiles with before donating other arms to Kyiv, is perhaps Ukraine’s best hope of keeping American aid flowing under the Trump administration. Of course, if the past is any guide, Trump could go back on his word at the drop of a hat, so this model likely means European NATO and Zelensky must make it a priority to fluff Trump’s ego and continually ensure that he sees the exchanges as beneficial to both his image and his political agenda. The bad news however is two-fold — while the new weapons tranches and future shipments to Ukraine will help it defend its cities more effectively and may allow it to slow Russia’s advance, it will likely be far too little to meaningfully turn the war around. Moscow this weekend continued to seize more land in the Donbas and along the Russia-Ukraine border in an effort to establish a buffer zone along its frontier, and is clearly getting more aggressive with its attacks on Ukrainian cities. Moreover, Trump’s sanctions, although encouraging, may be difficult to enforce, because some of Russia’s trading partners are also countries in which the US has made significant investments, like the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, Trump has been setting arbitrary deadlines in the Ukraine-Russia negotiations for months, and has done nothing when they’ve been broken — meaning that his latest 50-day deadline, which is already highly unrealistic to begin with, is likely toothless in the eyes of Vladimir Putin.

2. In their latest row, Hungary and Ukraine exchanged accusations over the death of a Hungarian-Ukrainian conscript

Following the death of József Sebestyén, a Hungarian-Ukrainian dual citizen from Ukraine’s Zakarpattia Oblast who was allegedly forced into conscription into the Ukrainian military, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has accused Ukraine of beating the man to death following his mobilization — a charge Ukraine has denied. According to Sebestyén’s family, the man was beaten with iron rods after he was forcibly mobilized last month, and died nearly a month later in a psychiatric hospital in southwestern Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities however have stated that the hospital report showed no sign of physical injuries, and claimed that the man had left his unit without authorization before admitting himself to the hospital. In response, Hungary summoned Ukraine’s ambassador to Budapest, while Orbán cited the incident as another reason why Ukraine should not join the EU.

Why it matters: While I won’t make any definitive verdict on whether the beating, if it did indeed occur, actually led to Sebestyén’s death or not, what is abundantly clear is that Orbán has been quick to exploit the incident for his own political agenda against Ukraine, as exemplified by his comment on Ukraine’s EU bid. Given that Ukrainian-Hungarian relations are already at a record low following Kyiv’s discovery of Hungarian spy ring operation in Zakarpattia Oblast in May, Orbán is likely to use Sebestyén’s death to further enflame tensions with Ukraine. Nevertheless, the incident has highlighted the very real problem of forced conscription in Ukraine, where men of fighting age are more reluctant than ever to join the fight against Russia on the frontlines. Ukrainian courts have have already brought cases against over 50 military recruiters for abuses committed in the conscription process since 2022.

3. Polish President Duda complained about Poland’s allies, including Ukraine, and threatened to shut down a key weapons transport hub

In an interview last week, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda drew the ire of his fellow NATO allies and Ukraine by scolding them for allegedly behaving as if a key airport in southeastern Poland used by NATO to deliver weapons to Ukraine, along with much of Poland’s infrastructure, belongs to them, and threatened to shut down the airport in retaliation. “Deliver aid by sea, by air, drop it with parachutes,” Duda said. “Figure it out if you think you don’t need us.” Duda, who is set to leave office in August to be replaced by newly elected conservative Karol Nawrocki, also added that he thought it was “a scandal” that a NATO statement in 2023 did not mention Poland. Despite his comments, Duda is generally seen as having a less adversarial approach to Ukraine than Nawrocki, who has frequently played up Polish-Ukrainian divisions.

Why it matters: While it seems quite clear that Duda’s comments about closing the Rzeszów Airport were largely rhetorical, they point to a clear dissatisfaction in Poland with the country’s role on the European stage despite its critical importance for arming and supporting Ukraine. Poland has for over three years served as a priceless node for NATO not just for weapons deliveries to Ukraine, but generally in managing military, diplomatic, and economic relations between Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Yet despite being included in various decision-making structures, Poles like Duda increasingly feel that their country continues to be underappreciated in Europe, and cannot seem to advance into the continent’s big leagues. Western European states indeed continue to be tacitly dismissive of Eastern European states in international relations, and it is in the entire continent’s interest to allow states like Poland to lead the conversation on Ukraine and European defense. Nevertheless, leaders like Duda and Nawrocki who point fingers at their opponents both at home and abroad are not helping Poland’s case — a more cooperative, less adversarial approach would win Poland more favors than its current tack.

4. From space to drones to landmines, efforts to expand military tech to oppose Russia in the Baltic states have been ramping up

The Baltic states have been making big waves in the military tech space recently, emerging as a hub of innovation aimed at bolstering regional defense along NATO’s eastern shield. Reporting from the BBC last week covered Astrolight, a Lithuanian tech startup designing hack-proof connectivity pathways between satellites and Earth-based hubs, that is playing an increasingly key role in both NATO’s military communication infrastructure and the Lithuanian navy’s intelligence operations. Meanwhile in Estonia, long a tech haven in Eastern Europe, tech veterans are reportedly cooperating on initiatives to strengthen the country’s civil responsiveness in case of conventional of hybrid threats, focusing not just on the military sphere, but on healthcare and energy security as well. Latvia’s groundbreaking domestic drone industry was also in the news last week, as was the start of a joint Lithuanian-Finnish venture to produce anti-personnel mines, many of which would be used to bolster the unified wall of defensive fortifications between built between Finland and Poland.

Why it matters: The Baltic states are the most exposed part of NATO in Europe geographically and logistically, and have clear incentives to use every sector of their rapidly developing economies to creatively and preemptively counter Russian aggression along their borders. Yet while the initiatives underway are already making an impact on both domestic defense and NATO operations, the question remains whether smart military tech will be enough in the absence of a robust continent-wide defense sector that would be able to compete with Russia’s military production.

5. Slovakia’s Fico pushed to reach a deal with the EU on new Russia sanctions and its phasing out of Russian gas

After months of diplomatic back-and-forth with both Brussels and Ukraine, Slovakia’s Fico appears to finally be reaching for a compromise on his opposition to the EU’s phasing out of Russian energy. The Slovak Prime Minister reportedly spoke with both Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Friday and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about penning a deal by Tuesday that would guarantee that Slovakia would not suffer economically as a result of the EU cutting itself off of Russian gas. Fico, who has been threatening to veto a new EU sanctions package against Moscow since last month, said he would allow the package to move forward if the Europeans gave him some kind of a win on the issue. Although he was not expecting a 100% win and did not give details on the negotiations, Fico claimed he wanted to lower tensions around the issue.

Why it matters: Despite years of warnings from Brussels, Slovakia continues to get much of its energy supplies from Russia three years after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and along with Hungary, has been seeking a degree of leeway from the EU as it seeks to completely wean itself off of Russian energy. Whether a deal will finally be reached on the matter remains to be seen, but it is clear that, despite the significant veto power he holds, Fico may be getting desperate to resolve the matter before it causes him additional political damage. Whatever happens though, Slovakia will likely stay on the sidelines of the bloc as long as his populist government remains in power.

The Eastern Flank

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