Trump prepares for Ukraine talks with Russia, Poland joins Macron's security summit, and the US thaws ties with Belarus

February 10-17, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Feb 17, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in talks with Trump’s team at the Munich Security Conference on February 14 (U.S. Department of State via Wikimedia Commons)

The past week has been a dramatic one for Ukraine, NATO, and Trump’s policy toward Europe, to say the least. I’m covering the most crucial news here as it relates to Eastern Europe, but for a more in-depth analysis, check out the article I published yesterday here. Let me know your thoughts on what this all means for Ukraine and Eastern Europe in the comments — I’d love to hear from you.

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. After a fawning call with Putin, Trump prepared for the first talks with Russia about Ukraine, without Europe or Ukraine itself present

Following Trump’s dramatic announcement that he had spoken to Putin for an hour and a half on Wednesday about Ukraine, Russia’s WWII alliance with the US, and more, Trump announced that negotiations with Russia on Ukraine were starting “immediately,” despite no consultations with Europe or Ukraine beforehand. During a subsequent press conference, Trump said it was possible that Ukraine “may be Russian one day,” before demanding that Ukraine sign a potential deal that would give the US access to Ukraine’s mineral rights as payback for the aid America has already given Ukraine. The first round of talks has been scheduled to take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday, but although Trump’s team has stated the interests of the EU and Ukraine will be represented, neither have been invited to the meeting. Ukraine’s Zelensky has stated that Ukraine would not accept any deal negotiated between the US and Russia that it did not participate in. Concurrently, even before negotiations took place, Trump’s Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said he considered NATO membership for Ukraine and recapturing its lost land “unrealistic.”

Why it matters: Trump’s call with Putin and his subsequent exclusion of Ukraine from the negotiation process signaled a tectonic shift in American policy, which since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had upheld a policy of no contact with Moscow and had maintained that nothing regarding Ukraine would be discussed without Ukraine. Hegseth’s comments, coupled with other messaging from Trump’s team over the past week, have demonstrated that despite months of mixed signals on Ukraine and Russia, their primary goal continues to be wash their hands of Kyiv, and to reach an end to the conflict as soon as possible, regardless of the costs. While there have been some indications according to Polish FM Sikorski that Trump’s moves may be an off-the-wall attempt to sway Putin before catching him off guard in negotiations, unless Trump suddenly reverses his policy toward Ukraine and Europe, Ukraine’s hopes of a post-war settlement that doesn’t amount to defeat are growing slim.

2. Poland was the only eastern NATO state at a French-led emergency summit on Ukraine, where leaders also discussed Europe’s future

Following US Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security conference during which he lambasted European leaders and signaled they would have to figure out their security on their own in days ahead, European leaders, led by France’s Macron have hastily organized an emergency summit on Ukraine in Paris today. While Ukraine was at the top of the agenda, leaders present were clear about the fact that much more was at stake: “Yes, it’s about Ukraine – but also about us,” stated European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. “We need an urgency mindset. We need a surge in defense. And we need both now.” Notably, only one country from NATO’s east, Poland, was invited to attend, making it also the only state at the meeting that is close to spending 5% of its GDP on defense, which Trump has called on all NATO members to do. Other eastern members of the alliance and the EU, notably Slovenia, voiced their displeasure at not being invited, even though Eastern European states have the most to lose from Trump’s likely military disengagement from Europe. While the result of the conference remains unclear, states like Poland, the UK, and Germany disagreed over potential troop deployments to Ukraine to maintain security following a US-brokered settlement with Russia, with Polish PM Tusk stating today his country would not send troops to Ukrainian soil.

Why it matters: Ukraine’s impending fate, coupled with the Trump administration’s apparently dismissive attitude toward Europe and its security concerns, seem to have once again forced Macron and company into action — but despite the urgency of the situation, there still appears to be little consensus among European leaders about how to handle a diplomatic situation around Ukraine that is slipping out of their control and how to secure their own defense, especially as they have been locked out of Trump’s Ukraine talks. Although it is notable that Poland has now tacitly joined the ranks of Europe’s leading states, the fact it was the only eastern NATO member present highlights the continued inequality between Europe’s eastern and western nations, even though by and large, eastern NATO and EU states are better equipped and more experienced than their western neighbors at navigating the Russian threat on the continent’s doorstep.

3. US diplomats were revealed to have visited Belarus to free political prisoners, hinting at a future grand bargain with Lukashenko

According to a report from The New York Times, US Deputy Assistant State Secretary Christopher W. Smith clandestinely visited the Belarusian capital Minsk last week along with two other American officials, securing the release of an American prisoner and two Belarusian detainees as part of a “special operation” unprecedented since 2020. According to NYT’s sources, the events took place as the US is seeking to negotiate a deal with Belarusian leader Lukashenko in which the US would relax sanctions against Belarusian banks and its export of potash in exchange for the release of various political dissidents. In response, the Belarusian opposition, which is based in Poland and Lithuania, has stated that sanctions should only be eased once Lukashenko releases all political prisoners in the country, who currently number 1,226. This comes as the Trump administration this week also facilitated the release of Marc Fogel, an American who had been detained in Russia for over three years.

Why it matters: The deal marks a major shift in US-Belarus relations, and the prospect of sanctions relief heralds a thaw in ties between the two countries despite the Lukashenko regime’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and its continued jailing of dissenters in the country. In context of Trump’s outreach to Russia over Ukraine, the move signifies a significant new phase in American relations with the Russian sphere, and could be tied to the Ukraine negotiations starting on Tuesday. Unless Lukashenko is persuaded to relax his autocratic tendencies and release scores of political prisoners in Belarus, which is unlikely, this is likely to dampen the exiled opposition’s hopes of democratic change in the country, and may also complicate efforts by NATO to combat Minsk’s weaponization of migrants on its eastern border.

4. Romania’s President Iohannis resigned from office ahead of impeachment efforts by the country’s populists and far-Right

Following the controversial annulment of Romania’s presidential elections due to Russian influence late last year, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis resigned from office last Monday. Although Iohannis’s term had expired, he had pledged to remain in office until a re-do of the election could be held in May, but resigned following efforts to impeach him by far-Right and Leftist lawmakers who claimed he had misled them on the rationale behind the election annulment. The head of the Romanian parliament’s upper house, Ilie Bolojan, will serve as interim president until May.

Why it matters: The resignation of Iohannis, who was a key leader along NATO’s eastern flank, has thrown Romanian politics into significant uncertainty at a time of deep dissatisfaction in the country with pro-European leaders, all while the poll numbers of Calin Georgescu, the far-right candidate who came in first in the annulled vote, have doubled since last year. The rise of Georgescu and other far-right groups in Romania has the potential to significantly upend the political order in the country, which is a key NATO state adjacent to Ukraine.

5. Moldova stated it believed Russia could withdraw its troops from Transnistria as part of a peace deal on Ukraine and European security

As Moldova and the EU continue to try to wean Transnistria off Russian energy, Moldovan PM Dorin Recean stated he saw upcoming negotiations between Russia and the US on Ukraine as an opportunity to secure the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, where Moscow’s military has been stationed since the fall of the USSR. According to Recean, this could take place “perhaps not necessarily in the peace negotiation process…but in the negotiation process that concerns Ukraine and the new EU security architecture.” He stated that Moldova will insist that this point be presented by negotiators at the eventual talks.

Why it matters: What is important about Recean’s statement is not the desire for a Russian withdrawal from Transnistria itself, but the understanding in the Moldovan government that the Ukraine talks will by necessity encompass the much broader question of European security, most immediately along the eastern borders of NATO. Moldova’s ability to influence the negotiations that will begin in Riyadh tomorrow is slim to none given the EU’s absence from the talks, however Russia’s reach in Transnistria is fading already as a result of energy diplomacy by the government in Chișinău and Brussels. Recean’s statements are likely little more than wishful thinking at this stage, but potentially presage broader shifts in Moldova down the line.

The Eastern Flank

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