Trump is 'pissed off' with Putin, Poland becomes Europe's Trump whisperer, and a new far-Right leader gains in Romania
March 25-31, 2025 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Trump threatened both Putin and Zelensky over ceasefire deals as Russia appeared poised to launch a new offensive in Ukraine
After continued Russian reticence to agree to Trump’s ceasefire deal with Ukraine, the US president stated this weekend he was “pissed off” at Putin, and threatened to slap a 50% tariff on any states purchasing Russian oil. Late last week, Putin sharpened his public rhetoric on peace talks with Ukraine, stating that a UN-administered, “transitional” government must be put in place before negotiations with Kyiv could take place, effectively making Zelensky’s ouster a prerequisite for any long-term deal. Trump expressed frustration with Zelensky as well, claiming that the Ukrainian president was “trying to back out of” the minerals deal that has been in the works for the past month, to which Zelensky responded by claiming that the conditions of the deal from Trump’s team are “constantly changing.” Despite the fiery comments from Trump though, Russian officials have stated that work with the Trump administration is “ongoing,” even as Zelensky has called on tougher measures against Putin who “couldn’t care less about diplomacy.” In an apparent confirmation of this, Russia launched massive drone strikes on the Ukrainian cities of Dnipro and Odesa, as research from the Institute for the Study of War indicated that Russia may be preparing for a large land offensive in Ukraine starting this spring.
Why it matters: The Trump administration’s bewildering flip-flopping on Russia in the context of the ongoing peace negotiations fits, at least in theory, with the strategy articulated by his team months ago in which the US would exert unrelenting pressure on both Kyiv and Moscow depending on each government’s willingness to come to the negotiating table. After giving Ukraine a lashing over the last few months, Trump now seems to want to give Russia its due — but even in turning up the pressure on Putin with tariff threats, Trump’s ability to influence the Kremlin is much more limited than his leverage over Ukraine, which has much more to lose from American pressure than Putin. A new investigation by The New York Times this past week showing just how deeply intertwined the US military has been in supporting Ukraine’s armed forces highlights this reality, and demonstrates that Trump’s treatment of Putin and Zelensky as being equally culpable for the continuation of the war continues to set Ukraine up for failure in any ceasefire and peace talks to come. Meanwhile, Russia’s unrelenting strikes on Ukrainian cities and its plans for a land offensive only underscore that Moscow continues to see warfare, rather than a negotiated solution, as the primary vehicle to achieve its war aims in Ukraine.
2. After agreeing to sign a $2 billion air defense deal with the US, Poland’s PM Tusk urged Trump to reconsider tariffs against the EU
As a last-ditch, Hail Mary effort, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pleaded with Trump on X not to impose sweeping tariffs on EU goods, underscoring America’s allies on the continent and Poland’s efforts to spend 5% of its GDP on defense. His comments came as Poland said it would sign a sweeping, $2 billion air defense deal with the US, which will supply Warsaw with logistical support, technical components, and training for its Patriot missile systems. Also last week, as part of its domestic push to expand its military, Poland signed a $1.7 billion deal with its state-run defense group to acquire infantry fighting vehicles to replace older Soviet-designed models. After Tusk previously stated he would introduce military training for all adult males in Poland, several of the country’s generals stated last week that a return to mandatory military service was “inevitable,” pointing to Finland’s military reserve as a model for Poland as it continues to grow and modernize its armed forces.
Why it matters: The importance of Tusk’s outreach to Trump in conjunction with Poland’s new deal with the US is less about the move itself, but about what it symbolizes. As the European country that spends the most on defense as a percentage of its GDP and possesses deep relationships within Trump’s circle, Poland is the most well-positioned state in the EU to appeal to Trump to walk back his tariff threats in the Transatlantic framework of Trump 2.0. In short, Poland’s unique position may have set the stage for it to become the de facto representative of the EU to Trumpworld, and Tusk’s move on X may be only the first indication of this new relationship. As Poland’s military armament continues apace, the growing support for conscription among its military brass marks a monumental shift in its defense logic, and underscores just how much Poland’s security calculus has shifted in the wake of Trump’s return to office and his threats to decrease American troop levels in Europe.
3. Another far-Right politician has risen to the top of presidential election polls in Romania as it deepened its ties to NATO and Ukraine
After the victor of last year’s canceled presidential election Călin Georgescu was banned earlier this month from running in this year’s re-run, a new far-Right figure, George Simion, has emerged as the frontrunner in the presidential race, according to a new poll that showed his support growing. Simion’s once-fringe Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) political party had coalesced around anti-vaccination causes during the COVID pandemic, and advocates for a return to Romania’s pre-WWII borders that included parts of Ukraine, Moldova, and Bulgaria. Simion’s rise in popularity comes as Romania’s Supreme Council for National Defense decided to continue its military support for Ukraine and to add new warships to its Black Sea fleet as part of a NATO effort to strengthen its role in the region. Although Simion has been banned from Ukraine, unlike Georgescu, he has stated that he sees Putin’s Russia as a “threat” for Romania and “for the Baltic states and for Poland.”
Why it matters: Simion’s potential win in Romania’s presidential election re-run in May could have destabilizing consequences for the country’s neighbors, NATO, and the EU due to his territorial ambitions and hard-Right stances that are sure to clash with the Brussels mainstream. Nevertheless, Simion’s efforts to distance himself from Georgescu on Russia are a welcome surprise, and suggest Romania may continue to work hand-in-hand with NATO to counter Russian hybrid threats on land and at sea without interruption under his administration. Such a position though would put him at odds with other far-Right leaders in the region including Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, whose own nationalist agenda may come to clash with Simion’s own vision of Greater Romania despite overlaps between the pair’s political positions.
4. Three American soldiers were killed when their vehicle sank into a bog during a training mission in Lithuania near the border of Belarus
Three of four American service members who went missing during a training mission in Lithuania early last week were found dead after their armored vehicle sank into a bog near the Belarusian border. Their vehicle was recovered from the bog on Monday, but search operations for the fourth soldiers continued without results. The soldiers had been on deployment to Lithuania as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, launched in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and had been working with Lithuanian soldiers during the training mission.
Why it matters: While the deaths of the soldiers will likely not have any geopolitical or security consequences for Lithuania or the Baltic states, they highlight the deep involvement that US forces have had in Eastern Europe since 2014 and especially since 2022. As the Trump administration threatens to draw down this presence, training exercises like the one these soldiers had been taking part in alongside Lithuanian forces may become much less frequent, making Lithuania and its regional allies feel much less secure in the near future. Already, Estonia’s defense minister has pointed out that a Ukraine ceasefire with Russia could make the Baltic states’ security situation more volatile, given that Moscow may use the opportunity to redeploy its forces further north toward the borders of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
5. Moldova expelled Russian diplomats for allegedly aiding a wanted politician and detained a pro-Russian ethnic minority leader
Moldova’s government expelled three members of Russia’s embassy staff in the country after accusing them of orchestrating the escape of a fugitive pro-Russian MP to the Russian-backed breakaway territory of Transnistria. The MP, Alexandr Nesterovschi, had been sentenced to 12 years in prison for fundraising for the illegal pro-Russian Shor Party, which was banned in 2023 after its exiled leader was accused of working to destabilize Moldova. Another MP, Irina Lozovan, who was also accused to fundraising for the Shor Party, also disappeared, however her whereabouts remain unknown. Eugenia Gutul, the pro-Russian leader of the autonomous ethnic territory of Gagauzia in southern Moldova, was also detained while trying to leave the country, and is awaiting sentencing for her own role in fundraising for the Shor Party and other corruption-related activities.
Why it matters: Russia’s move to assist criminal MPs in Moldova is only its latest effort to undermine Moldovan sovereignty and to counter its attempts to crack down on pro-Russian and especially pro-Shor elements within its borders. These events take place shortly after Moldova and the EU’s relatively successful efforts to weaken Russia’s hold on Transnistria through energy diplomacy, when Moldova was able to use an energy crisis precipitated by Russia to partially wean the territory off Russian gas. The message Russia is trying to send now however seems to be quite clear — if you materially or politically support its proxies in Moldova, Moscow will do everything in its power to keep you out of prison and to help you escape to friendly soil. Moldova’s ability to oppose such a policy remains limited, but as the case of Eugenia Gutul demonstrates, it is not powerless, and continues to have plenty of avenues at its disposal to go after Moscow’s political allies.
Other stories to watch:
— Poland suspends right to asylum at Belarus border (Notes from Poland)
— Israel's Netanyahu to visit Hungary, defying ICC arrest warrant (Reuters)
— Bosnia court issues international arrest warrant for Serb leader Dodik (Reuters)
— Belarusian opposition group's chairwoman Melnikava reported missing (The Kyiv Independent)
— Italy approves new decree to use Albania migration centres as repatriation hubs (Euronews)
— Slovak prime minister says Von der Leyen scolded him terribly during last conversation (Ukrainska Pravda)
— Vučić announces that experts from Russian FSB arrived to investigate the use of a sonic weapon (European Western Balkans)
— Kenya recognises Kosovo as independent state, first such move in five years (Reuters)
The author's claim that these are the first soldier deaths on European soil is not correct. There have been a number of aircraft crashes involving US Army and USAF personnel casualties in the European theater over the years. It is also likely that other deaths have occurred during ground and marine environment training and patrol activities by army, marine and naval forces. The database i looked at was only air crashes and there were a number of them with fatal outcomes.