Trump freezes military aid and intel sharing with Ukraine, Poland seeks a nuclear deterrent, and tensions escalate in Bosnia

March 4-10, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Mar 11, 2025

Poland’s Donald Tusk, who for the first time declared that Poland will seek out nuclear deterrence options against Russia, during a summit of the European People’s Party on March 6, 2025 (European People’s Party via Wikimedia Commons)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump cut military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine while threatening Russia with sanctions ahead of a meeting with Zelensky

In a pair of moves that sent shockwaves through Ukraine, Donald Trump froze all military aid to Ukraine last week, including packages approved under the Biden administration, and severed American intelligence sharing with Kyiv. Trump also threatened to impose banking sanctions and tariffs on Russia “until a ceasefire and final settlement on peace is reached.” On Monday however, ahead of expected talks between Ukraine’s Zelensky and the US in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, Trump said he had “just about” ended the freeze on intelligence sharing, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that American military aid to Ukraine could start flowing again if the negotiations go well. Nevertheless, other reporting has suggested that Trump might not allow military aid to resume until Zelensky is replaced with a different leader in Kyiv, underscoring the chaotic nature of his team’s approach to Ukraine.

Why it matters: The military aid and intelligence cutoff were the first concrete measures Trump has taken to weaken Ukraine on the battlefield, likely leading to the loss of Ukrainian lives. The intelligence sharing freeze also likely impacted the targeting ability of the Ukrainian military’s HIMARS, long-range missile systems, and defense installations, not only making it more difficult for Ukraine to hit Russian forces but also to defend their own civilian populations. The move has also reportedly already had an impact on American defense contractors, throwing long-term investment targets into question. The summit in Saudi Arabia will mark the first time Trump’s team will meet with the Ukrainian side since the US president’s infamous shouting match with Zelensky, and Trump’s moves this past week are clearly meant to force the Ukrainian leader to start playing ball entirely on Trump’s terms. Ukraine’s leaders thus will have no choice but to resign themselves to Trump’s dictates, and whatever happens in Saudi Arabia will likely determine Kyiv’s negotiating position as the US moves toward comprehensive talks on a ceasefire deal with Russia.

2. As Trump questioned NATO’s Article V, Poland stated it will seek access to nuclear weapons and implement military training for all men

After Trump once again questioned whether the US would come to the aid of NATO states that do not spend an adequate amount on defense, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that his country would “reach for opportunities related to nuclear weapons,” stating it is in talks with French President Macron about being protected under France’s nuclear umbrella. In addition, Tusk said he would implement a program to provide military training to all Polish men by 2026 as part of efforts to build a 500,000-strong military to counter Russia. The moves also come as Elon Musk engaged in a public spat with Polish FM Radosław Sikorski on X on Sunday over Poland’s funding of Ukraine’s Starlink system, as US Secretary of State Rubio echoed Vice President J.D. Vance’s comments to Zelensky in the Oval Office by telling Warsaw to be “thankful” for US support for Ukraine. In response, Tusk took to X to denounce “arrogance” between “friends,” without mentioning Musk or Rubio by name.

Why it matters: Tusk framed his push for Polish nuclear deterrence in light of the “profound change of American geopolitics” that had impacted both Ukraine and Poland’s national security. Despite plenty of reporting that initially suggested that Tusk had called on Poland to develop its own nuclear arsenal, his statements were in fact much more vague, and were focused primarily on receiving nuclear deterrence guarantees from France. Nevertheless, he did leave the door open for Poland to host British or French nuclear warheads on its soil in the future, which would signal a dramatic shift in Europe’s security framework. Tusk’s call for national military training fell short of an order to reinstate nation-wide conscription, but mirrors policies in other NATO states like Norway, Lithuania, and Latvia. Already possessing the third-largest military in NATO, Tusk’s pledge to create a 500,000-man army would put Poland in second place ahead of Turkey — but despite the impressive numbers, Polish analysts have long warned that in order to create a military that would hold its own against Russia, Poland will need to do more than just bring in fresh soldiers, and will have to fill serious gaps in its military infrastructure by investing in ammunition production and state-of-the-art military tech.

3. The EU sent more troops to Bosnia as the country’s top court suspended separatist laws passed by renegade Serb leader Dodik

After Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Serb-majority Republika Srpska which makes up one of the two constituent entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, was sentenced to prison by a Bosnian court, the top court in the country’s capital Sarajevo has annulled laws passed by Republika Srpska in response to Dodik’s sentencing that rejected the authority of the federal police and judiciary on its territory. The court will make a final judgement on the constitutionality of these laws, and stated that their enactment before this judgement would have "serious and unavoidable consequences" for rule of law in Bosnia. Dodik, meanwhile, has continued stoking the flames of internal division in the country by calling on Serbs to quit their posts in the country’s judiciary and police. In light of the potentially explosive impact of the back-and-forth between Dodik and Bosnia’s courts, the EU pledged to add 400 troops to its current peacekeeping force of 1,100 in the country, as NATO chief Mark Rutte met with all three members of Bosnia’s multi-ethnic presidency in Sarajevo on Monday.

Why it matters: The escalating tensions between Dodik’s separatist cohorts in Republika Srpska and the central authorities in Sarajevo present a very real threat to the unity of Bosnia and Herzegovina — while Dodik has fanned the flames of ethnic nationalism in the past, the fact that the EU and NATO are taking these events in Bosnia this seriously signifies that the current crisis is far more existential for the country. Unfortunately for Bosnia, there are few off-ramps on the horizon, as Dodik’s surrender to judicial authorities would represent the end of his political career, while any attempt by Sarajevo to enforce the constitutional order in Republika Srpska by force would risk triggering a resumption of the civil war of the 1990s. European and NATO mediation will be critical if any efforts to resolve this crisis are to succeed.

4. Romania banned ultranationalist Georgescu, who won the annulled first round presidential vote, from competing in a re-run of the race

Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau barred pro-Russian far-Right candidate Călin Georgescu from competing in the re-run of the country’s presidential elections in May, following his victory in the first round of voting which was annulled late last year due to outsize Russian influence. The bureau cited irregularities in Georgescu’s candidacy application and the state’s previous move to ban another pro-Russian candidate in its decision, which came shortly after Romanian prosecutors opened a criminal case against Georgescu for a variety of charges including “incitement to actions against the constitutional order.” Georgescu’s supporters held a protest on Sunday that turned violent as the candidate vowed to appeal the decision.

Why it matters: Romania’s annulled elections have becoming a lightning rod issue across the European Right, even attracting the attention of American VP J.D. Vance last month, and the election bureau’s decision to ban Georgescu from competing is certain to further infuriate far-Right groups and voters not only in Romania but across the EU. Beyond just the far-Right however, the scenario playing out in Romania presents a key test case for how EU states deal with Russian influence in their elections without undermining democracy in the process — something that will become critically important in coming years as Russia ramps up its hybrid warfare operations against Europe and especially NATO’s east.

5. Amid ongoing street protests, Serbian opposition MPs set off flares and smoke grenades in parliament, injuring several members

In a show of support for anti-corruption street protests across Serbia that have continued to attract tens of thousands of people, opposition MPs in Belgrade staged a show of support for the demonstrations by setting off flares, smoke grenades, and tear gas in the country’s parliament on Tuesday, leading one member to suffer a stroke. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić called the acts “hooliganism” and ordered participating members to be criminally charged.

Why it matters: These events in Serbia’s parliament are just the latest explosive symbol of the how disruptive anti-corruption protests in the country have become for its political order and just how much of a challenge they pose for Vučić’s rule. Vučić is unlikely to step down from power without a fight, and will likely leverage his long-running political prowess to strike some kind of deal with the opposition — but the protests on Serbia’s streets and in the halls of parliament threaten to constrict his field of movement considerably as he navigates the latest crisis in Bosnia and tries to project power across the Balkans at large.

The Eastern Flank

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