Trump envoy meets Putin as Russia hammers Ukraine, the US mulls reducing troops in Eastern Europe, and Georgia's leaders target their political rivals

April 7-14, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Apr 14, 2025

The aftermath of Russia’s strike on Ukraine’s Sumy on Sunday, which killed at least 37 people (ДСНС України via Wikimedia Commons)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump’s Russia envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin amid a standstill in Ukraine talks as Russia pummeled Ukraine’s Sumy

Weeks on from the start of the Trump administration’s efforts to get Russia to agree to a ceasefire deal in Ukraine ahead of a broader peace settlement, the US has made little progress of any kind on the matter, and talks between the countries appear to have reached an impasse. Although Trump himself claimed meetings between them were “going okay,” he added that the time “to put up or shut up” was approaching — even as Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was impossible to expect instant results. In hopes of reversing this trend, Trump’s Russia envoy Steve Witkoff made an unannounced visit to St. Petersburg on Friday to meet with Putin for the third time in two months, speaking with the Russian leader for over four hours. Meanwhile, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg floated the idea of establishing zones of control to keep the peace in post-war Ukraine, similar to the occupation zones established by the allies in Germany in 1945. Kellogg’s comments and Witkoff’s jovial meeting with Putin came shortly before a high-casualty Russian strike in the Ukrainian city of Sumy, where a Russian missile hit killed at least 37 people and injured another 117 worshippers who had gathered for Palm Sunday. Trump officials have condemned the attack, but Trump himself partially blamed Ukraine’s Zelensky for the war itself the day after the strike. Also last week, Ukraine captured several Chinese soldiers fighting on Moscow’s behalf in the conflict, marking the first time that individual Chinese troops have been documented in Russia’s ranks in the country.

Why it matters: As his team butts up against Putin’s unyielding war aims, Trump is slowly beginning to learn exactly why the war in Ukraine has gone on for as long as it has, and why Europe and the Biden administration had elected to support Ukraine militarily rather than hope Russia would come to its senses diplomatically. With an advantageous position on the battlefield, Putin continues to have no reason to adjust his uncompromising position even on an initial ceasefire, leaving Trump’s team with few options other than using a mix of sycophancy, a few harsh words, and half-baked sanctions to get Putin to inch closer to their side (tariffs against Moscow however were apparently a step too far for the administration), all while the Russian leader continues to massacre Ukrainian civilians in places like Sumy. The revelations about China’s shadow involvement in the conflict indicate that while Beijing is wary about appearing to support Russia militarily outright, it is happy to keep pathways for its citizens to join the war effort open as a carrot for Moscow. Although underappreciated for time being, China’s growing pull in the war may well make it a decisive player in the conflict’s eventual conclusion.

2. The US said it would “optimize” its military operations in Poland as the Pentagon reportedly considered cutting troop levels in the region

The US military announced early last week that it would be moving its troops out of Jasionka, a town in Poland’s southeast, where they had been stationed since the start of the war in Ukraine, as part of a broader effort to “optimize” its presence in Poland. The troops deployed at Jasionka had played a critical role in sending American military aid to Ukraine, and the US army stated these operations would now be conducted under “Polish and NATO leadership” as US troops are transferred to other parts of Poland. Although Polish officials have played down the announcement and sought to project confidence, Polish media have reacted with alarm, calling the move a “bad sign.” These events are doubly concerning for Poles and other Eastern Europeans due to a report from NBC News last week that the Pentagon is considering withdrawing up to US 10,000 troops from the region, chiefly from Poland and Romania. Already, Romania’s leading presidential candidate George Simion has incorporated the news into his presidential campaign, claiming he is the only candidate who can stop the US from withdrawing from the country.

Why it matters: The withdrawal of US troops from Jasionka coupled with the NBC report are the first concrete indications that the Trump administration has no intentions to remain in Eastern Europe long-term, despite past reassurances from US officials like Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth that the US remains committed to “model allies” like Poland. Poland’s security situation is only deteriorating — new videos released today by the Polish government appear to show a Belarusian state service member helping migrants assault Polish border guards along the Poland-Belarus border for the first time. Poles are right to worry about the so-called “optimization” underway, because at best, it indicates the US may be preparing to halt weapons shipments to Ukraine via Poland. If the NBC report is correct, it may be the start of a wholesale effort by the US to deprioritize the country and the entirety of NATO’s eastern flank. If this comes to pass, it will be a deeply destabilizing, if expected, outcome of the Trump presidency that will undermine trust in American commitments in the region for decades to come while significantly raising the risk of more serious Russian interventionism and hybrid warfare in Eastern Europe.

3. Georgia’s pro-Russian ruling party has set up an investigative committee that dissidents say will seek to ban the political opposition

After winning an election widely condemned as fraudulent and halting Georgia’s EU accession talks last year, the country’s ruling Georgian Dream party has established a committee that will investigate alleged political corruption from 2003 to 2012, the period when the party’s rival, the UNM, headed by Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili, governed the country. Although corruption likely did take place during the period, the real aim of the committee according to Georgian Dream’s opponents is to establish allegations that will then allow the party to ban the UNM and other opposition parties outright — something the party has vowed to do since last year. The party has already introduced a bill that would allow the Constitutional Court the authority to ban parties that “undermine” the country’s independence, something Georgian Dream has implicitly accused opposition parties of doing through their ties to Western countries.

Why it matters: If Georgian Dream makes good on its promise to ban the Georgian opposition, it would mark a dramatic step back in the country’s post-Soviet political trajectory, and would likely result in widespread social destabilization. It is more likely though that the party would move to ban the UNM while keeping smaller parties around to maintain the illusion of a multi-party state. Even then, Georgian Dream’s dominance of Georgian politics would allow it to further integrate the country into Russia’s sphere of influence, oppress LGBTQ people, degrade the country’s civil society, and cut the country off from Western institutions, likely destroying what remains of Georgian democracy in the process.

4. Donald Trump, Jr. said he would visit Romania before its election as reports detailed how nationalist candidates courted Trump

Trump’s eldest son, Don, Jr., announced he would be attending a speaking event in Romania later this month, only a few days before Romanians go to the polls to vote in the rerun of the country’s presidential election in early May. The previous election, which saw dark horse far-Right candidate Călin Georgescu come out on top, was cancelled due to apparently rampant Russian influence, leading Trump, Jr. to lambast the decision as a “Soros/Marxist attempt at rigging the outcome.” The previous election’s winner, dark horse far-Right candidate Călin Georgescu, was banned from participating in the rerun this year, but other ultranationalists have steadily picked up where he left off, and have personally ingratiated themselves with Trump in an effort to win his administration’s favor. According to reports, the candidate currently in second place in the presidential race visited Mar-a-Lago before Trump was inaugurated, although the subject of the meeting remains unclear.

Why it matters: Don, Jr.’s foray into Romanian politics mirrors that of US President J.D. Vance, who has frequently used the cancellation of Romania’s election as evidence of the alleged corruption of European democracy. Although Trump, Jr. is not currently slated to hold any meetings with politicians in the country, he will almost certainly use his visit to undermine Romania’s political mainstream and to speak in support of the Right-wing opposition, while nationalist candidates are sure to clamor for his attention and backing during his stay. The emergence of Trump and his inner circle as kingmakers in European’s Right-wing ecosystem may also push politicians in Romania closer to Trump’s position on European security, although so far, the leading candidate in the race, George Simion, remains committed to NATO and Ukraine.

5. Bosnia’s separatist leader returned home from Russia, raising questions about Bosnia’s ability to enforce its warrant against him

After jetting off earlier this month to Russia, Serbia, and beyond, Bosnia’s separatist leader Milorad Dodik, who is wanted by the Bosnian state for challenging the country’s constitutional order, said he had returned home to his village in Bosnia on Sunday. His ability to cross into and out of Bosnia has raised eyebrows internationally due to the national warrant out for his arrest in the country, suggesting that authorities enforcing the border between Serbia and the Republika Srpska entity which Dodik governs are flaunting court orders in Sarajevo. In reference to moves last month by the Republika Srpska legislature to declare rulings of the national judiciary void in the territory, the EU’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas stated last week that any efforts by Dodik and his republic to secede from Bosnia would be “unacceptable.”

Why it matters: Dodik’s trips abroad, ostensibly meant to shore up support from his allies, provide worrying evidence that the Republika Srpska, with Serbian backing, has de facto stopped enforcing Bosnian law on its territory and along the borders of the country that it controls. Despite Kallas’s warnings, and threats from Interpol to serve Dodik with an red notice, Bosnia is already well on its way toward a secession crisis, which would very likely bring the violence of the 90s roaring back with a vengeance.

The Eastern Flank

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