Trump doesn't mention Ukraine at inauguration, Poland alleges Russian 'air terror,' and Slovakia hints it may exit the EU

January 13-20, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Jan 20, 2025

Trump and JD Vance at the presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025 (Office of Vice President of the United States via Wikimedia Commons)

In this issue, I’m including news surrounding Donald Trump’s inauguration in order to keep things current. Thanks for waiting for this edition to hit your inbox today!

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Trump failed to mention Ukraine at his inauguration, but his treasury nominee said he supports tougher sanctions on Russia

Donald Trump did not mention Ukraine a single time during his inauguration speech on Monday and outlined no actions he would take to address the war there despite repeatedly stating he would seek to end the conflict as soon as he enters office. But away from the inauguration proceedings, the impact of his presidency on the conflict was already coming into focus — Putin claimed at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council that he was open to negotiations not just on an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, but also a long-term peace that would settle the roots of the conflict. The Russian leader also expressed an interest in talks on nuclear arms control and security in the region. As Biden announced additional so-called “Trump-proof” sanctions against Russia in his final days in office, Trump’s nominee for the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said he was in favor of additional sanctions to force Russia to the negotiating table. On inauguration day itself, both Russia and Ukraine launched major strikes against each other in a show of force, with Ukraine striking Russia yet again with US-made long range ATACMS missiles.

Why it matters: The fact Trump was unable to deliver on his campaign promise that he would end the war in Ukraine on day one of his presidency is no surprise, and his advisors are quietly suggesting that any peace deal is months away at best. Despite his silence at the inauguration, Trump and his team appear genuinely engaged on Ukraine, even though a fully-fleshed out policy is still far from clear. But although Putin has been working to sweet talk Trump ahead of potential negotiations and signal an openness to talks, it has been clear for months that he remains thoroughly unwilling to compromise on his war aims, meaning that it will be no easy task for Trump to get the policy win he so desires on Ukraine, no matter how much pressure his incoming administrations puts on Russia through sanctions or backing for Kyiv. As his administration formulates its foreign policy agenda over the next few weeks, the pressure will be high for it to finally offer some clarity on its approach to Ukraine.

2. Poland claimed Russia is recruiting Poles for sabotage ahead of elections as PM Tusk claimed Russia planned to attack Western jets

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed Western intelligence findings on Wednesday that Russia had planned to commit acts of “air terror” by attacking cargo planes belonging to Poland other Western countries. Previously, German and British authorities had stated that Russian-backed actors had planted explosives at shipping hubs in their countries, but Poland inclusion among the targets of the Russian plot was previously unknown. Concurrently, Poland’s Minister of Digital Affairs stated that Russia was recruiting Poles to spread destabilizing disinformation online ahead of its presidential elections in May. This comes as Poland prepared to sign a new defense treaty with the UK and as it made its case to a newly inaugurated Trump to continue investing in mutually beneficial defense deals with Warsaw.

Why it matters: Russia is clearly using both direct sabotage and more covert means online to influence Polish politics — but far from working to bolster one candidate over another, the Kremlin sees the present moment as an opportunity to weaken Poland by deepening existing internal political divisions. With Trump in office in the US, European energy in crisis, and the future of the continent’s security very much up in the air, Russia likely sees plenty of openings to undermine the unity of NATO and the EU, and Poland remains one of the most important theaters in this shadow war. Tusk thus faces a delicate battle ahead of him as he navigates both the run-up to the election and the critical first months of Trump’s second term, during which he will need to put himself in a position to benefit from the US president’s ego-driven policymaking while also continuing to Russia-proof his own political sphere at home.

3. Slovakia’s Fico hints that he may leave the EU and NATO as the country’s opposition leader met with Zelensky in Kyiv

During a speech, Slovakian PM Robert Fico stated that the future may see the EU and NATO consigned to the “history books,” and while he did not specifically raise the possibility of an exit from the bodies, the country’s deputy speaker stated Slovakia may consider such a move in the future. Meanwhile, Michal Simecka, the leader of Slovakia’s largest opposition party, met Ukraine’s Zelensky in Kyiv last week to discuss a deal on Russian energy transit to the country after Zelensky refused to renew the previous deal after it expired on January 1. Simecka’s visit comes amid a back-and-forth between Fico and Zelensky over the deal, during which Zelensky refused to meet Fico at the Slovak border to negotiate on the matter.

Why it matters: While it is unlikely that Fico will make any serious moves to leave the EU or NATO, his statement on the matter puts him squarely on the fringes of the European community alongside fellow pariah, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán. Both these latest statements and his ongoing spat with Zelensky take places as Fico’s coalition faces a no-confidence vote led by the Slovak opposition, which, bolstered by popular protests in the country and unease within Fico’s own coalition, is already positioning itself as an international representative of Slovakia in Fico’s stead. By all indications, Slovakia is on the brink of a dramatic political shift, making Zelensky’s meeting with Simecka look all the more like an insurance policy against the future.

4. In a shift, leaders in Transnistria said they want to buy gas from Moldova, but Chișinău said it wants to see Russian troops withdraw

After previously refusing to accept aid from Moldova proper, the Russian-backed breakaway state of Transnistria stated it is ready to buy gas from Moldovan energy companies, which have confirmed that they are prepared to supply the region with energy for the first time. Nevertheless, the pro-Western government of Maia Sandu has added that additional aid to Transnistria to help it overcome its energy crisis must come after the withdrawal of 1,500 Russian troops from the region, which have been stationed on the territory since a brief war in the early 1990s after the fall of the USSR.

Why it matters: Transnistria has been in the midst of an energy crisis that has led to rolling blackouts and heat shortages since Russia’s Gazprom halted energy sales to the region earlier this month citing unpaid debts by Moldova. For years, this supply of free energy had been used by Moscow to exert leverage and influence over Transnistria, which in turn allowed it fund its state services by selling power to Moldova. With Moldova now connected to the EU’s energy market, Transnistria’s bargaining power has been weaker than ever — and now that Moldova will become the territory’s primary power guarantor, it is likely that its days as a quasi-independent entity are numbered. Surely Moscow will try to maintain its influence over Transnistria despite the new arrangement, but as it grows ever more dependent on Moldova, Transnistria will have little ability to withstand Moldovan pressure to rejoin its sovereign territory and leave Russia behind.

5. NATO deployed its navy to the Baltic as Sweden stationed its largest deployment to the alliance so far in Latvia

Following Russia’s alleged attempts to damage undersea cables in the Baltic, NATO has started deploying several ships to Estonia as part of an operation named Baltic Sentry that will keep an eye on critical infrastructure and guard it against tampering by Russian vessels. So far, several Dutch, German, and French ships have arrived or are on the way to the Estonian capital of Tallinn, with a total of 6 or 7 ships expected to take part. Concurrently, Sweden has committed its largest deployment to NATO so far last week, stationing 550 troops at a base in Latvia as part of a Canadian-led battalion, which is one of eight such groups along the alliance’s eastern shield.

Why it matters: The deployment of NATO ships from countries from across the alliance will certainly increase the security of European undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic region, but after much hype about the joint operation in recent weeks, the relatively low number of projected participating vessels is disappointing for an alliance that needs to project strength and unity now more than ever. Nevertheless, Sweden’s deployment to Latvia is a significant step toward in its forces’ integration into broader NATO military frameworks, and is a much-needed positive step in European defense as questions loom about America’s participation in such battle groups with Trump in office.

The Eastern Flank

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