Trump calls Zelensky, Poland's military becomes the largest in Europe, and Hungary faces an energy crisis
July 16-21 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Donald Trump spoke to Zelensky about peace plans for Ukraine as Joe Biden withdrew from the US presidential race
Donald Trump spoke by phone to Ukraine’s Zelensky on Friday in the pair’s first call since 2020 as part of the Ukrainian government’s efforts to build bridges to the Trump campaign and to persuade him to continue supporting Ukraine’s defense effort. During the call, which Trump called “very good,” the two agreed to discuss what a “fair” peace deal would look like at a subsequent personal meeting. The call took place two days before Joe Biden announced he would be ending his campaign for reelection, which has led the Democratic Party to race to name a new nominee just over 100 days before the national election. Separately, Zelensky met with new British PM Keir Starmer in London, where he continued his calls for long-range missiles from the West amid another Russian assault on Kyiv on Sunday.
Why it matters: The increasingly chaotic trajectory of the US presidential election campaign, made doubly so by Biden’s exit, has forced Zelensky to plan for the worst by preemptively presenting support for Ukraine as an opportunity for Trump to appear strong on the international stage and boost the US economy. Trump’s willingness to engage Zelensky on potential peace plans suggests his campaign’s approach to Ukraine remains malleable. Nevertheless, Trump’s eventual policy toward Ukraine and Europe remains at best a question mark, and at worst may lead to an American retreat from Europe and a peace effort that results in disaster for Ukraine.
2. Poland’s military has officially become the third largest in NATO and the largest on the European continent
According to newly released NATO data, Poland’s military has grown to 216,100 soldiers in 2024, surpassing every country in Europe including France, the UK, and Germany and sitting behind only US and Turkey within NATO. Poland’s military has nearly doubled since 2020, and leaders claim the country isn’t done expanding its capabilities yet — earlier this month, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski claimed Poland would spend a staggering 5% of its GDP on defense in 2025.
Why it matters: The Polish army’s swift and dramatic rise to the top of European military power has already made it a prominent player within NATO and the EU since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its star is certain to rise even further given the potential for an American turn away from Europe if Trump is elected in the US. As the single largest military player in Europe, Poland has now become a critical leader on security matters, not just in Eastern Europe, but in continent-wide defense against Russia. This new reality is likely to also pave the way for Poland to realize another of its long-term goals — becoming a weapons and security exporter in its own right. Significant hurdles lie on Poland’s horizon, namely developing its defense industry and balancing military spending with economic growth, but the country’s new position will fundamentally change the balance of power in Europe and beyond.
3. Hungary claimed Ukrainian sanctions on Russian oil transit threaten its energy security and will cause major shortages
Following Ukraine’s imposition of sanctions on the transit of oil by Russian company Lukoil through its territory to the EU last month, Hungarian leaders have claimed their country will face an energy crisis as a result of the ban. Ukraine had previously allowed such shipments via pipelines through its territory to give countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia time to ween themselves off of Russian oil and gas, but have now withdrawn this waiver for Lukoil in order to weaken Moscow’s energy sector. Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó has stated that while political solutions were previously being discussed, they have now “faded.”
Why it matters: Hungary, which has emerged as one of Russia’s key allies within the EU and NATO since 2022, has used its reliance on Russian energy as one of the key justifications for why it has refused to distance itself from Moscow since it invaded Ukraine. Now, this reliance has become its Achilles’ heel, and although Hungary is reportedly working on finding alternative ways to receive energy from Russia, Ukraine has hinted that one of the goals of these sanctions is to force Hungary to acquiesce to Ukraine’s demands on EU accession and weapons shipments. If successful, such a mechanism could reveal a potent way for Ukraine and Europe alike to coax Hungary back into their corner in years to come.
4. As Georgia’s government continues to crack down on civil society, Russia stated it is prepared to intervene on the ruling party’s behalf
Nearly two months after the passage of a Russian-inspired foreign agents law that led Georgia to be sidelined by the EU and the US, the country’s ruling Georgian Dream has continued to implement restrictive measures targeting NGOs, LGBTQ groups, and media outlets in the country. Most menacingly however, the Deputy Chairman of Russia's Federation Council said on Sunday that Russia is prepared to intervene to keep Georgian Dream in power if requested to do so, comparing it to Russia’s support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria amid the country’s ongoing civil war. Yet although Russia appears to have an increasingly loyal proxy in Tbilisi, the Georgian people have grown increasingly hostile to Russia, according to new polls out last week that showed that 69% of Georgians view Moscow as their primary enemy.
Why it matters: Georgia’s fall from grace in the eyes of the West has been swift this year, and although Russia stayed relatively quiet as the crisis around the foreign agent law unraveled, its new willingness to intervene on Georgian Dream’s behalf speaks to just how much has changed geopolitically in the country. Having already occupied parts of Georgian territory in 2008, Russia is now positioning itself as a steady backer of the Georgian Dream government, and is putting all its chips on the table to protect the party from domestic challenges. It remains to be seen however whether Moscow will be able to keep such promises while the war in Ukraine continues.
5. A German citizen was sentenced to death in Belarus as Lukashenko celebrated 30 years in power
A German Red Cross employee, Rico Krieger, has been sentenced to death in Belarus for a variety of charges including alleged terrorism, mercenary activity, and extremism — charges the pro-Russian Belarusian state has levied on a variety of political opponents. The case, which is the first in the country to include mercenary charges, is potentially linked to the Kalinoŭski Regiment, a unit of Belarusian volunteer fighters fighting on behalf of Ukraine, but it remains unknown how and why exactly Krieger has been charged. The case comes as Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko celebrated 30 years in power last week, having ruled the country since 1994.
Why it matters: While Belarus has for years gone to extreme lengths to go after its critics at home, executing up to 400 people since 1991, the charges against Krieger are the first major case of a foreigner being sentenced to death in years. Reportedly, Krieger has been granted consular communication with Germany which is working on resolving the case, and it is possible that Belarus may be preparing to use Krieger as a bargaining chip to gain some sort of concessions from the EU.
Other trends to watch:
— A Serbian police officer was shot dead by an individual Serbian authorities have connected to the state of Kosovo, calling the killing an act of terrorism. The Kosovar government has denied such connections, stated the incident should not be politicized.
— A Polish court has found that the country’s Border Guard broke the law by pushing back migrants who were injured while crossing over the border from Belarus, including individuals who expressed a desire to claim asylum in Poland. The ruling may prove to be a seminal moment in rights’ groups efforts to hold Polish services accountable for breaches of international law during the border crisis that has been ongoing since 2021.
— Polish MP Mariusz Kamiński, who earlier this year staged a hunger strike while detained by police on abuse of power charges, filed a torture complaint against Poland at the European Court of Human Rights, claiming he was force-fed through a tube and forcibly restrained by Polish services during his detention.
— Armenia and Azerbaijan reportedly made progress toward an eventual peace agreement between the two countries in the wake of several wars and skirmishes since 2020, while Russia condemned US military drills in Armenia, which Moscow considers part of its geopolitical sphere.
— A Polish tractor part company is under investigation for allegedly supplying components for Iranian drones used against Ukraine and Israel.
— In Moldova, battles over the influence of to the Russian Orthodox Church have intensified, increasingly playing out across local communities.
— Lithuania’s parliament has voted to withdraw from the Convention on Cluster Munitions, deeming it an impediment to the country’s defense priorities.
— Estonia’s new Prime Minister Kristen Michal, who replaced outgoing PM Kaja Kallas, has formed a coalition government.