Trump calls Zelensky and Putin, Ukraine fights North Korean troops, and European leaders discuss their future under Trump
November 4-12 in Eastern Europe
Thank you for waiting a day for this issue — it’s been a busy week with lots of news. Undoubtedly the most important event of the past week was Donald Trump’s return to power in the US election last Tuesday. Although I’m covering the immediate impacts of the election in this edition of The Eastern Flank, for a broader and more in-depth analysis of what this means for Eastern Europe, read through my long-read on the matter that I published on Friday below if you missed it. I promise you’ll find something here that will surprise you:
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Trump took an unexpectedly tough stance with Putin and left Zelensky somewhat reassured in his first post-election phone calls
In one of his first phone calls since the election, Donald Trump called Ukraine’s Zelensky last week alongside Elon Musk, and despite initial fears, left the Ukrainian president feeling reassured about Trump’s position on Ukraine. Separately, Trump called Putin and told him not to escalate the war in Ukraine while underscoring America’s sizable military presence in Europe, although unusually, the Kremlin denied that the conversation took place. Nevertheless, Trump and his allies have signaled that, although they may not wish to surrender Ukraine entirely to Russia as many had feared, they will likely not support dramatic military aid to the country or empower it to continue reclaiming territory Russia has conquered — Bryan Lanza, who worked on Trump’s 2024 campaign, stated that the focus would now be on “peace” rather than territorial gains, and notably, that “Crimea is gone.” The Trump team has distanced itself from his comments, however appears poised to hand the position of Secretary of State to Sen. Marco Rubio, who has opposed weapons packages to Ukraine and stated he does not believe Ukraine will be able to recapture its lost territories from Moscow.
Why it matters: Trump’s initial calls to Zelensky and Putin appear to have dissuaded some concerns that Trump would act entirely on Putin’s behalf in the foreign policy space, and his comment about American troops in Europe appeared to contradict various indications throughout the campaign that he would drawn down the US presence on the continent. Of course it is far too early to make any judgement calls about Trump’s eventual Ukraine policy, and although his likely appointment of Rubio signals that the focus will be on negotiations to end the war rather than military support, the critical question continues to be how much the new Trump administration’s stance on negotiations will work in Russia’s favor in the conflict. For Ukraine though, the focus will now be on mitigating the negative impact of Trump-led negotiations rather than a return to largely open-ended American support.
2. Ukraine engaged in its first battles with North Koreans as Russia faced its deadliest month since the start of the war
After weeks of preparations, North Korean troops have reportedly engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces for the first time in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, part of which remains occupied by Ukrainian troops. Ukraine is reportedly fighting a total of 50,000 troops in the region, including the North Koreans. Last week, Putin signed into law a mutual defense treaty with North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un that the pair had agreed on in June. Although both Russia and Ukraine are angling to put themselves in the best possible military and strategic positions ahead of eventual negotiations, Russia suffered its single worst month in terms of casualties since the war began according to British officials, with an average of 1,500 dead or wounded every day in October.
Why it matters: The deployment of North Koreans to Kursk Oblast makes sense for Russia in light of its staggering losses recently and Trump’s return to the White House — the Kremlin has recently stated that no negotiations will take place until Ukraine leaves its positions in Kursk. Ukraine however likely continues to see Kursk as a critical bargaining chip ahead of negotiations, and will seek to hold the territory for as long as it can in spite of North Korean forces entering the fight. With winter setting in, the status quo there may well hold and work in Ukraine’s favor strategically, but this year has the potential to be the toughest winter yet for Ukraine’s civilians.
3. 50 world leaders discussed Trump and Ukraine at a summit in Budapest, vowing to strengthen European sovereignty and defense
The European Political Community held a summit in Budapest, Hungary, on Thursday, where leaders spoke about next steps for Europe on Ukraine, defense, trade, and more in the wake of Trump’s election. Although Ukraine’s Zelensky appeared to strike a positive tone, calling for European unity and a “peace through strength” approach to security, the majority of attendees were reportedly deeply frustrated with Trump’s return to power — of course besides Trump-friendly populist and summit host, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán. At the conclusion of the summit, leaders committed to working with Trump despite their disagreements, increasing their economic competitiveness, preparing for a likely American-led trade war with China, and “do[ing] what is necessary” for Europe’s security in light of America’s likely withdrawal from the continent.
Why it matters: Despite months of discussions about the consequences of a potential second Trump term, Europe remains under-prepared for the impact of the US election on its economy and defense sector, and this gap was very much on display in Budapest. Although Zelensky and other leaders have put forward several new diplomatic targets and economic reform plans at the summit, Europe has decidedly run out of time to Trump-proof itself ahead of the major changes that lie ahead.
4. Poland prepared to take on a leading role in the EU after Trump’s election and instability in Germany and France
In light of America’s likely withdrawal from European affairs under Trump, along with political paralysis and instability in Germany and France, Polish leaders have signaled that they are ready to become leaders in European politics, especially on defense and to fill the gaps that will be left by the United States. Poland’s PM Donald Tusk stated he would meet with French, British, and NATO leaders, who have vowed “unwavering” support for Ukraine despite Trump’s win, to coordinate their collective response, with meetings with Scandinavian leaders planned as well. According to Tusk, Poland will seek to "very intensively coordinate cooperation with countries that have a very similar view on the geopolitical and transatlantic situation and the situation in Ukraine.”
Why it matters: Poland’s rise in European geopolitics has been ongoing since 2022, however Trump’s election and the weakening of Germany’s position in particular puts Poland on track to become a top player in European transatlantic matters, on par with the UK and France. Poland’s position as a conduit and potential guarantor of support for Ukraine will likely only grow, and with the US likely playing a much smaller role going forward, Warsaw may well become a kingmaker when it comes to the West’s position in Ukraine after potential peace negotiations.
5. As Serbia’s Vučić flattered Trump, his ally in Bosnia was placed under additional US sanctions
Following Trump’s election, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić flattered Trump after a call with the president-elect, pointing out widespread support for Trump in Serbia and inviting Trump to visit the country. However, shortly beforehand, right after election day, the Biden administration placed new sanctions on Vučić’s ally Milorad Dodik, who leads the majority-Serb Republika Srpska within Bosnia and has said he would secede from Bosnia if Trump won. Dodik, who is close to Putin, reportedly held a cocktail party when Trump’s victory was announced.
Why it matters: Having familial real estate interests and sharing an ideological closeness with Vučić, Trump is likely to pursue favorable policies for the Serbian leader during his time in power, and Vučić understands that, by staying in Trump’s good graces, he may be able to push his nationalistic agenda forward not only in Serbia domestically, but in Bosnia and Kosovo as well. For this reason, as well as America’s broader likely withdrawal from European institutions like NATO, Trump’s return is already being hailed as a nightmare scenario for Bosniaks and Kosovars, who have much to fear from a Serbia that will likely see Trump’s time in office as a green light to push Kosovo to give up northern Serb-majority regions and potentially to annex the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska as well.
Other stories to watch:
— Hungarian opposition leader accuses Orbán of Watergate-style spying plot (Politico Europe)
— Poland allocates aid to Ukraine equivalent to nearly 5% of its GDP (Ukrinform)
— Germany accuses Russia of ‘massive’ effort to stop Moldovans abroad voting (The Guardian)
— Lithuania government to include party whose leader is on trial for antisemitism (Reuters)
— Austria may lift veto preventing Romania and Bulgaria joining Schengen (Euronews)
— Giorgia Meloni launches renewed effort to detain migrants in Albania (Financial Times)
— We must “liberate” Poland from “foreign occupying” government, says Kaczyński in Independence Day speech (Notes from Poland)
— In Russia's shadow: The Baltics wait for Europe's strategic new railway (BBC)
— Dictator Lukashenko allows six token candidates to 'challenge' him at the ballot (The Kyiv Independent)