Russia conducts its largest ever attack on Ukrainian cities, Poland's election heats up, and Georgia arrests an opposition politician
May 20-26, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Russia and Ukraine conducted the largest POW swap of the war as Trump berated Putin for his largest ever attack on Ukrainian cities
More than a week since the first direct meeting between Ukrainian and Russian diplomats since 2022 and Trump’s latest call with Putin, there has been no movement of any kind in the US-brokered peace talks, and Trump’s messaging toward Putin has continued to be predictably reactive, inconsistent, and fruitless. The largest prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine since 2014, which was the only concrete result of their meeting on May 16, was completed in several phases this weekend, with 1,000 Ukrainian POWs traded for 1,000 Russian ones. Even though things went off without a hitch, Trump boasted about the exchange on Truth Social while it was still in progress — a breach of protocol around such a sensitive operation. Over the next several days however, Russia launched massive drone and missile attacks across Ukrainian cities, culminating in the largest single Russian air assault of the war on Sunday night when Kyiv was pummeled by over 350 drones and at least nine Russian missiles. Despite a noticeable initial silence, Trump scolded Putin on social media today, saying, “He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” and notably adding that "I've always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it.” Last week, Trump had refrained from joining the EU and the UK when they issued a new slate of sanctions against Russia in response to its refusal to accept a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine — but after Sunday’s attack, Trump claimed he is “absolutely” considering sanctions.
Why it matters: It has become clear that Putin has two main objectives in the US-brokered talks: first, to keep stringing Trump along by dishonestly voicing support for peace (on Putin’s terms of course) and thus maintaining the rhetorical high ground on the global stage, and second, to keep up the pressure on Ukraine in order to remind it what it has to lose by continuing to resist Russia’s absolutist demands. Trump, for his part, is trying to follow his Art of the Deal playbook in the negotiations, but continues to hit the same impasse — even though he doesn’t want to hit Russia too hard in the interest of developing trade and commercial ties in the near future, Putin continues to embarrass him, undermining the entire process itself (or whatever remains of it). Nevertheless, pressure is mounting on Trump to put some sort of sanctions on Putin, coming not just from the EU, but also from Republicans at home. According to France’s Emmanuel Macron, even Trump has realized that Putin is lying to him about his intentions — but whether this will lead Trump to actually implement sanctions despite his desire for a grand bargain with Russia remains to be seen.
2. Ahead of a pivotal presidential election in Poland, rival candidates held parallel marches in Warsaw and made deals with the far-Right
A week on from the first round of Poland’s presidential election, the race remains a dead heat between center-left Rafał Trzaskowski, an ally of the ruling coalition led by Donald Tusk, and conservative Karol Nawrocki, a loyalist of PiS, the previous ruling party. Following their close finish in the first round, both candidates have sought last week to gain the support for Poles who voted for candidates from smaller parties, most notably far-Right libertarian Sławomir Mentzen, who invited both candidates onto his show on YouTube to give them a chance to make their case to his base. While Nawrocki signed a document agreeing with all of Mentzen’s political agenda, Trzaskowski didn’t sign the document, but was invited by Mentzen for a beer afterward — a move that many far-Right voters described as Mentzen “selling out” to Trzaskowski. On Sunday, both candidates held rival marches at the same time in Warsaw, with Trzaskowski’s reportedly attracting a larger crowd.
Why it matters: While this weekend’s events might appear to be relatively minor domestic political developments, they tell us a great deal about the future of Polish politics and their potential impact on Europe’s geopolitical position. Nawrocki’s embrace of Mentzen and his far-Right agenda, which includes blocking Ukraine’s membership in NATO, signals the official embrace of a largely anti-Ukrainian position by Poland’s nationalist Right — a marked departure for PiS, whose leaders led the charge in aiding Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022. Although Nawrocki likely took this step out of desperation ahead of the runoff on June 1, whatever happens moving forward, it appears likely that he and PiS will be forced to adopt more nativist positions on Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees due to pressure from Rightists like Mentzen, whose party, Confederation, will only become more influential with each passing election. Trzaskowski for his part, while maintaining his principles and emerging from the weekend in a better position than Nawrocki overall, may be looking at a make-or-break moment for Poland’s political future in this election — a win for him may be the last opportunity for Poland’s centrist coalition to pass long-awaited rule of law reforms before the parliamentary elections in 2027, when the current coalition is likely to lose ground. As a leading state in the EU and NATO then, Poland’s runoff on June 1 will decide a great deal about the future not only of its own domestic landscape, but of Ukraine and Europe itself as well.
3. Georgia’s ruling party arrested an opposition party leader as US Sec. of State Rubio called the country’s government “anti-American”
Over six months on from their disputed victory in Georgia’s parliamentary elections last year, the country’s pro-Russian, autocratic ruling party Georgian Dream has started arresting opposition party leaders in line with its pledge to outlaw political parties in the country. Zurab Girchi Japaridze, the head of the Girchi Party, was taken into police custody last week for refusing to appear before a parliamentary commission investigating alleged wrongdoing by Georgian Dream’s political opponents. Japaridze was one of various opposition figures who boycotted the commission along with parliament itself in protest of Georgian Dream’s rule, which is widely regarded as illegitimate. Although the commission was initially set up to target the United National Movement, the main opposition party that had dominated Georgia’s government before 2012, its authority has since been extended to include the present day, giving it the latitude to target any opposition party it deems fit. These moves come as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to call Georgia under Georgian Dream “anti-American” last week, warning that the Trump administration may take “appropriate actions” against Georgian Dream.
Why it matters: Japaridze’s arrest is likely the first of many to come, and signals that Georgian Dream is indeed willing to follow through on its broad crackdown on Georgia’s opposition party landscape. Although this crackdown is still only in its early phases, if Georgian Dream takes it to its logical conclusion, it will make Georgia into a one-party oligarchic state in Russia’s orbit along the lines of Lukashenko’s Belarus — a dramatic step backward for what was once one of the post-Soviet world’s most promising democracies. Although Trump has scarcely paid attention to Georgia (much to the chagrin of Georgian Dream, who see him as a kindred spirit), Rubio’s comments suggest that the US may indeed take additional steps to put pressure on the party through sanctions or otherwise. Nevertheless, it is possible that, if Trump spares the time to actually learn about Georgian Dream, he may come to see them as ideological compatriots just as he does Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. If that happens, all bets about holding the party responsible for its democratic backsliding are off.
4. Finland announced that Russia is now deploying its navy to guard its shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea after pressure from Estonia
After Russia detained a ship that left Estonia in response to Estonia’s own detention of Russian vessels, Moscow has announced that it will now defend its ships in the sea with all resources available — a statement confirmed by Finland, which reported that the Russian navy is now defending the country’s oil tankers in Baltic by giving them military escorts. Also last week, Poland’s navy reportedly intervened when it saw a part of Russia’s shadow fleet making “suspicious maneuvers” near a power cable linking Poland to Sweden in the Baltic, forcing the ship to dock in a Russian port, likely Kaliningrad. In addition to allegedly damaging undersea cables, Russia’s so-called shadow fleet has shipped oil from Russia in violation of Western sanctions.
Why it matters: Russia’s decision to escort its oil tankers through the Gulf of Finland marks a noticeable rise in temperatures in the Baltic Sea, where Estonia, Poland, and other Baltic countries have been engaging in armed patrols for months to ward off Russian efforts to tamper with undersea cables. Within such an environment, the potential for military confrontation, accidental or otherwise, is considerable, especially given that Russia has already demonstrated a willingness to use military force in response to efforts by NATO powers, notably Estonia, to enforce international law in the Baltic. As Russia’s hybrid operations against NATO ramp up, the Baltic Sea will continue to be a significant theater of confrontation with the West.
5. Germany launched its first permanent overseas military deployment since WWII in southeastern Lithuania
Last week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz personally inaugurated the permanent deployment of a German brigade to a base in Lithuania’s southeast — the first such overseas deployment by Germany since the end of the World War II. Merz heralded the move as the start of a “new era” for Germany, which he said is “taking the defense of NATO's eastern flank into our own hands.” Although the German brigade currently in Lithuania includes 5,000 troops, it could be expanded to 10,000 soldiers and their families at the base, which will be fully operational by 2027. Germany joins other NATO members France, Britain, and Canada, who lead battle groups across Lithuania and other Baltic states.
Why it matters: With memories of World War II still fresh in the minds of Germans and Lithuanians alike, this move is a dramatic step away from Germany’s long-running post-war stance of maintaining a relatively small military force only on its own soil. This deployment not only comes in response to growing apprehension in Europe amid uncertainty about Trump’s commitment to the continent’s defense, but also to Russia’s increasing saber-rattling in the Baltic region, and showcases that, like its allies, Germany takes NATO’s current shadow conflict with Russia seriously enough to upend decades of military tradition to defend countries in Europe’s East.
Other stories to watch:
— Ukraine Is Offering Money and Perks for Gen Z to Fight (Wall Street Journal)
— EU foreign policy chief calls on Serbia to make a ‘strategic choice’ between West and East (Associated Press)
— EU urged to act over Hungary’s plans to ‘effectively outlaw free press’ (The Guardian)
— Romania: Top court rejects appeal to annul election results (DW)
— Beware unkempt tourists: Latvia tells citizens how to spot Russian spies (The Guardian)
— Hungarian opposition leader Magyar walks to Romania, courting ethnic Hungarians (Reuters)
— Slovak party seeks to officially demand compensation from Ukraine for aid (Ukrainska Pravda)
— North Macedonia wants EU, NATO at its talks to settle row with Bulgaria (Reuters)
— Tsikhanouskaya Urges Baltic States Not To Close Belarus Border Despite Growing Migrant Pressure (Radio Free Europe)
— Russia releases oil tanker from Baltic Sea detention, Estonian broadcaster says (Reuters)
— EU says it has begun to ease sanctions on Kosovo (Reuters)