Russia and Ukraine trade blows in the Donbas and Moscow, Poland sees a key opening with India on defense, and Georgia's leaders threaten its democracy
August 19-25 in Eastern Europe
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What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Russia advanced in Ukraine’s Donbas as Ukraine carried out one of its largest ever attacks on Moscow and moved to join the ICC
As Ukraine continued to solidify its position in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, potentially preparing to encircle as many as 3,000 Russian troops in the area, Russian forces advanced toward the town of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donbas, a key logistics hub in the area, prompting evacuations of local civilians. Russia also captured the town of Niu-York last week nearby as well. On Wednesday though, Ukraine carried out one of its largest (if not the largest) drone attacks of the war on Moscow, launching 45 drones into Russian territory, of which 11 were shot down over the Moscow region. Later in the week, Ukraine’s Zelensky signed the Rome Statute into law, paving the way for Ukraine to join the International Criminal Court.
Why it matters: Russia’s advance toward Pokrovsk has undermined one of the key aims of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk — drawing Russian forces away from the Donbas and impeding its progress on the battlefield there. Russia’s capture of Pokrovsk would hardly have the same symbolic impact as Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk, but its position at the intersection of several key railways and roads would make resupplying troops in the region much more difficult for Ukraine. Kyiv’s attack on Moscow, like the Kursk offensive, is part of its apparent pivot to a psychological war against Russia, in which it has prioritized making Russians feel vulnerable as a result of the war rather than focusing purely on battlefield gains. Meanwhile, the ratification of the Rome Statute is part of Ukraine’s battle on another front — moving closer toward EU accession.
2. Poland emerged as a potential security partner and defense supplier for India as PM Modi visited Warsaw and Kyiv
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a historic visit to Poland last week, during which he and Polish PM Donald Tusk agreed to upgrade their ties to a strategic partnership and to work toward a lasting peace in Ukraine. Notably, the pair spoke about developing their defense relationship, with Polish officials eyeing India’s reservoir of old Soviet equipment as an opportunity for cooperation on modernizing India’s military as it seeks to move away from Russia as its primary arms supplier. Modi subsequently traveled to Ukraine, where he met with Zelensky in Kyiv and signaled his support for the Ukrainian people during the war, despite India’s officially neutral position on the conflict itself.
Why it matters: Modi’s visit to Poland was the first visit by an Indian leader to the country in 45 years, and underscored Poland’s growing role in European security affairs. It also suggested that Poland’s new position as the largest military in the EU had been appreciated by India — as had its wish to become an exporter of defense expertise on both the European and global scale. As Poland continues to develop its defense sector and further expands its armed forces, it may become a key partner for India in its decades-long quest to balance its interests between the East and the West.
3. In a move toward autocracy, Georgia’s leaders promise to ban nearly all opposition parties in the country after elections in October
Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party took its largest step yet toward authoritarianism when it declared that it would seek a constitutional majority in parliament in the October elections in order to outlaw nearly all of its political rivals, and bar any of their MPs from taking office. The statement, delivered by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, came the day after his party stated it would dissolve the United National Movement, the largest opposition party in the country.
Why it matters: Ever since implementing a foreign agent law in May that many have compared to a similarly restrictive law in Russia, Georgian Dream has taken several steps to marginalize the country’s liberal, pro-Western civil society sector, and the promise to ban the country’s largest opposition parties is the most extreme move so far in this direction. The party will face an uphill battle to make this happen — they will need to win 113 seats out of the country’s 150, which would be a massive undertaking given that they currently only control 74. However given its crackdown on NGOs and media organizations, it is very possible the party will manipulate the electoral campaign and voting processes in October, opening the door for violent confrontations with protestors and the marginalization of Georgia by the West.
4. Hungary’s Orbán threatened to send migrants to Brussels after failing to explain expanded entry rules for Russians and Belarusians
The government of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán has vowed to offer migrants crossing Hungary’s borders tickets for transport to Brussels in protest of a 200 million euro fine imposed on it by the European Court of Justice for repeatedly violating EU asylum rules. The news comes after Hungary faced criticism from the EU for being too lax in another corner of its migration policy by expanding a guest worker visa program to include Russian and Belarusian workers. According to the EU, the move would allow Russian and Belarusian nationals to easily enter Hungary and in turn have freedom of movement across the entire Schengen Area — potentially opening the door for Kremlin spies to have unlimited access to the bloc.
Why it matters: These two separate but related tiffs with the EU represent yet another episode in Orbán’s long-running battle with Brussels over Hungary’s migration policy, which has failed to comply with EU standards for years. The visa card issue with Belarusians and Russians underscores the double standards Orbán’s Hungary has taken on migration issues — while irregular migrants crossing the country’s border are systematically pushed away, immigrants from Russia, which Orbán is close to politically, are able to easily gain entry into the country regardless of the much more immediate security risks they may pose to the EU.
5. Ukraine’s Zelensky formally banned the Russian-linked branch of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church
Ukraine’s parliament passed a law banning religious organizations with ties to Russia, most notably the Russia-linked branch of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC). The UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate had claimed it had cut all ties with Russia in 2023, but the Ukrainian government has maintained that this severance did not go far enough. The new law promises to shut down any Russia-linked religious factions if they do not cut all ties to Moscow within 9 months, but has been met with rebuke from several Christian officials, most notably Pope Francis. Influencers online have falsely used this news to claim that Ukraine had “banned Christianity,” although this has been widely debunked as disinformation.
Why it matters: This is the most decisive move yet by Kyiv to limit long-running Russian influence in the country’s religious affairs, which the Ukrainian state claims has allowed organizations like the UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate to cooperate with the Russian FSB. The UOC-MP has promised to pursue legal action against the law.
Other trends to watch:
— Belarus has reportedly massed significant numbers of troops and weapons along its border with Ukraine, leading Kyiv to demand they be pulled back on Sunday.
— German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Moldova on Wednesday to discuss security, EU accession, and the war in Ukraine, becoming the first German leader to visit the country in 12 years.
— Putin offered to mediate peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan during a visit to the Azeri capital Baku.
— Hungary has ended support for some Ukrainian refugees living in homeless shelters in the country, mandating that state support only be given to people fleeing areas of the country that are directly impacted by the war. The new mandate has threatened to leave many refugees homeless, with most of the people affected ironically being Hungarian-speaking Roma from Ukraine’s Zakarpattia Oblast.
— Polish PM Tusk admitted that he and his coalition do not have the necessary votes in Poland’s parliament to alter the country’s abortion laws, which are the most extreme in the European Union. The abortion issue has been key for many liberal Poles who supported him in the parliamentary elections last year.
— Protest have re-emerged in Slovakia against the government’s crackdown on cultural institutions, the anti-corruption system, and the freedom of the press, with many voicing fears of Slovakia’s slide toward Hungarian-style illiberal authoritarianism.
— 11 migrants drowned while crossing the Drina River from Serbia into Bosnia, including a 9-month-old girl and her mother.
— The director of the American CIA visited Bosnia, Serbia, and Kosovo, focusing on US relations with Kosovo and the rise of Russian influence in the Western Balkans.
— In a monumental shift, Poland’s population has been found to be increasing as a result of immigration and refugee flows from Ukraine despite one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, with over 3 million foreigners currently in the country.
— The Estonian Orthodox Church has formally cut all ties with the Russian Orthodox Church, updating its official charter to reflect the change.