Rubio hints US may abandon Ukraine peace talks, Zelensky says China is arming Russia, and Poland deepens its ties to the Baltics

April 15-21, 2025 in Eastern Europe

Apr 21, 2025

A captured Chinese soldier fighting for Russia in a video shared by Zelensky on April 10 (Screenshot via @ZelenskyyUa/X)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. US Sec. of State Rubio stated the US might abandon Ukraine talks if no progress is made after Trump’s team met EU leaders in Paris

Another week has gone by with many meetings and statements, but little practical movement in the Trump-brokered Ukraine-Russia talks. At talks in Paris, Trump’s team, including envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, met with European and Ukrainian diplomats in a multilateral format for the first time, and although the meeting was hailed as “positive” by French President Macron, as usual, no concrete agreements emerged. Trump’s team however presented their counterparts with yet another proposal intended to set the stage for an initial ceasefire that includes US recognition of Russian rule over Crimea and the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO, as well as a reduction in sanctions against Moscow. The US and Ukraine also signed a preliminary memorandum on their commitment to an eventual minerals deal, months after talks on a previous version of the deal had fallen through in March. Nevertheless, despite the amicable atmosphere, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the administration’s impatience with the peace process clear, stating that if no movement is made by both sides in the coming days, the Trump administration may abandon the talks altogether and “move on.” In what appeared to be a performative effort to demonstrate its continued commitment to a potential ceasefire, Russia unilaterally declared an Easter truce in Ukraine, before proceeding to violate it thousands of times.

Why it matters: While the inclusion of European leaders in the Ukraine talks finally gave them the seat at the negotiating table that they had so coveted, the incredibly pro-Russian peace proposal that emerged from the meeting demonstrated just how much distance remains between the European, Ukrainian, and American points of view on the peace process. In addition, despite the vague possibility of a new minerals deal on the horizon, there is no guarantee that the Trump administration won’t turn the tables on Ukraine once again as they have at several critical junctures over the past few months. Nevertheless, despite the Trump team’s longtime conciliatory approach to Russia, there is little indication that Moscow is willing to budge even an inch on its core demands, making all of this ultimately irrelevant. Rubio’s statement about walking away from Ukraine, which was later echoed by Trump himself, is the administration saying the quiet part out loud, and shows that predictably, its true aim has remained normalizing ties with Russia regardless what happens to Ukraine. Although it remains unclear what the US would actually do if it were to give up on peace talks, it is certain that Europe would bear the brunt of the fallout, while Ukraine would be forced to continue fighting the Russian invasion without the vast majority of the backing that has allowed it to survive for more than three years of war.

Ukrainian officials meeting Trump’s team, including Sec. of State Marco Rubio, in Paris last week (U.S. Department of State via Wikimedia Commons)

2. Ukraine sanctioned 3 Chinese companies after claiming China is arming Moscow and building weaponry on Russian territory

Ukraine’s Zelensky stated on Thursday that Ukrainian intelligence agencies had found evidence that China is sending armaments like artillery and gunpowder to Russia and is producing weapons on Russian territory itself. Although he did not immediately cite this evidence, he stated he would make documents corroborating his claim public this week. Although China has denied Zelensky’s claim as “groundless,” Ukraine has sanctioned three Chinese companies, one aeronautics manufacturer and two component producers, apparently in connection to China’s support for Russia. Ukraine has previously alleged that there are as many as 155 Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in the country, and has captured Chinese soldiers in recent weeks.

Why it matters: Although this is not the first time that allegations have surfaced about China’s alleged support for Russia in its war in Ukraine, Zelensky’s claim that China is involved in manufacturing weapons on Russian soil is novel, and points to a much deeper level of involvement by Chinese businesses in the war effort than had previously been suspected. If true, it would suggest a substantial entanglement of the Chinese state with Russia’s military-industrial complex and significant Chinese interest in the maintenance of Russia as a military power across Eurasia. Such covert involvement in the war in Ukraine would serve a dual purpose — by carving out a role for itself as a patron of not only Russia’s war effort but also Moscow’s military industry itself, China would be making Russia increasingly dependent on it, while also making sure Russia keeps the West occupied in Ukraine so that China can have a freer hand to pursue its own agenda in the Western Pacific, specifically in Taiwan.

3. Amid new threats, Poland deepened its ties with the Baltics as Latvia became the first NATO state to leave a crucial anti-mine treaty

Amid statements from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin that Poland and the Baltic states would be “the first to suffer” in the event of NATO threats against Russia or Belarus, Poland announced that it would be deploying 110 additional troops to Latvia, including 40 chemical warfare specialists, shortly after Latvia announced it would be exiting the 1997 Ottawa Treaty against anti-personnel mines. Latvia’s withdrawal marks the first time that a NATO member has exited the treaty and will likely be followed in the near future by Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, which have all pledged to leave the treaty in order to deploy defensive anti-personnel mines along their borders with Russia and Belarus. Also last week, Lithuania stated it would fortify a second military route through the narrow Suwałki Gap, the only land corridor linking Poland with the Baltic states, in order to make it easier for Poland to reinforce Lithuania and its neighbors in the event of a military crisis. The moves come as Poland has also noted an increase in divisive Russian disinformation activity ahead of Poland’s presidential elections in May and doubled down on its calls to host both American and French nuclear weapons to ward off future Russian aggression.

Why it matters: As Poland and the Baltics increasingly look beyond the war in Ukraine to their own security needs, such moves signal not only enhanced cooperation in the face of threats from Russia, but also Poland’s continued role as a regional lynchpin of defense. Latvia’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty undoubtedly heralds withdrawals by Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia in the near future, highlighting how the countries of NATO’s east are increasingly taking security matters into their own hands rather than waiting for the rest of Europe to come up with comprehensive solutions. Looking longer term, as American participation in NATO wanes, such forms of regional cooperation may eventually set the stage for localized defense pacts in Eastern Europe that will act independently of the North Atlantic alliance.

4. Slovakia passed a Russian-inspired anti-NGO law as PM Fico announced he would attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow

Despite warnings from the EU, Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico announced he would be traveling to Moscow for Russia’s Victory Day celebration on May 9th, which this year will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. Shortly afterward, Slovakia’s Parliament adopted a law critics say is inspired by Russia’s infamous foreign agent law that mandates that NGOs disclose their sources of funding or face fines, although the most controversial parts of the bill like branding NGOs foreign agents or lobbyists for failing to comply were removed to comply with EU law. Similar laws have been used by authorities in Hungary, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia in the recent past to crack down on civil society organizations, especially those backed by Western institutions.

Why it matters: While Fico’s pledge to travel to Moscow for the Victory Day parade holds significant symbolic weight and further signifies Slovakia’s turn toward Russia’s sphere of influence, in practice, the passage of the anti-NGO law is far more serious for Slovakia. Although Slovakia’s version of the law is at this stage less aggressive than Russia’s or Georgia’s, it creates a precedent in which Western-backed NGOs can be prosecuted and publicly shamed for their ties to institutions overseas, giving Fico a cudgel to use against civil society organizations seeking to hold him accountable.

5. Amid protests, Serbia named a new PM and ousted a key pro-Russian figure, but changes fell short of President Vučić’s promises

In face of ongoing student-led protests in the country, Serbia’s government has named a new Prime Minister, professor Đuro Macut, to replace outgoing PM Miloš Vučević who resigned earlier this year in the face of public pressure. Most of the members of Macut’s new government are holdovers from the previous cabinet, but importantly, several key figures have been removed, including ardently pro-Russian deputy PM Aleksandar Vulin who had served in the upper echelons of Serbia’s government since 2013. The changes however fall short of the sweeping new leadership promised by President Aleksandar Vučić, who has himself become a target of the protests.

Why it matters: The changes in Serbia’s leadership, while significant, have ultimately underscored the elephant in the room for protestors — that regardless of personnel changes, the country continues to be squarely under the sway of President Vučić, who is only acquiescing to cosmetic demands from demonstrators to protect his own power and to continue to balance Serbia’s interests between Russia and the EU. Even as pro-government demonstrations grow in force, Serbia’s new government with Macut on top will be unlikely to placate Serbia’s student movement, which has continued to challenge the very foundations of modern Serbia’s leadership hierarchy.

The Eastern Flank

Discussion about this post