North Korean troops may deploy to Ukraine, Poland will suspend migrants' right to asylum, and the EU declares Hungary a security risk
October 7-13 in Eastern Europe
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What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Russia executed Ukrainians POWs in Kursk as South Korea claimed North Korea will likely deploy troops to Ukraine
South Korea’s defense head on Thursday stated that as it works to deepen its ties to Russia, North Korea may deploy its regular armed forces to Ukraine in support of Moscow’s forces following security agreements between the two countries earlier this year. The news comes as Russia focused its offensive efforts in Ukraine’s Donbas on Pokrovsk last week, with indications it would launch an assault on the strategic town within the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Ukraine accused Russia of executing nine Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, areas of which remain under Ukrainian occupation, adding that an investigation had been launched into the previous execution of 16 Ukrainian POWs — the largest such killing since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Why it matters: A deployment of North Korean troops in Ukraine, no matter how large or small, would mark the first time that a Russian ally would actively join the fight on Moscow’s side in the country, and thus dramatically expand the war’s reach into Asia. Materially, North Korea’s participation would likely do little to alter Russia’s capabilities, but could potentially herald the transformation of the Ukrainian battlespace into a much more internationalized one, like the one that emerged in Syria. Although Russia’s slow but steady advance toward Pokrovsk again indicates that it is less focused on Kursk than Ukraine would have liked, Russia’s treatment of POWs in the area indicates that it views the fight there as important enough to wage psychological warfare against Ukrainian soldiers engaged in the theater.
2. Poland’s PM Tusk announced he will temporarily suspend migrants’ right to asylum amid rising tensions on the Belarus border
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on Saturday that Poland would temporarily suspend the right to asylum on its territory, and that he would “demand” the EU’s recognition of the policy. Tusk claimed that the Belarusian state, with Russia’s help, had been abusing Poland’s asylum policy to smuggle in migrants as part of its hybrid war against NATO. Tusk is set to present the policy to his government on Tuesday.
Why it matters: Despite having institutionalized cross-border pushbacks for three years since the migrant crisis began on its border with Belarus, Poland had continued to process limited, but hardly substantial numbers of asylum claims since. While this new policy will likely do little to improve security on Poland’s border, it will make it impossible for migrants and refugees with legitimate asylum claims who were manipulated by Belarus to escape Lukashenko’s trap. Politically, this move is likely aimed at drumming up support for Tusk’s party in advance of presidential elections next year, and also likely aims to ease pressure along Poland’s border with Germany, which has set up border checks in response to migration from Poland. The change however will likely pit Poland against Brussels and international human rights orgs for the first time since the Law and Justice Party left power in Poland last year.
3. The EU’s head declared Hungary a security risk to Europe as the bloc tried to find new ways to bypass Hungary’s veto on Ukraine aid
In her most vociferous speech to date on the subject, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Hungary a security risk for Europe due to its cozy relationship with China and Russia on Wednesday, citing Budapest’s cooperation with Chinese police on EU territory and its opening of a visa backdoor for Russian and Belarusian nationals to enter the bloc with few restrictions. The comments have come after the EU said it would sue Hungary for its restrictive sovereignty laws earlier this month, and after EU officials bypassed Budapest’s veto to provide a 35 billion euro loan to Ukraine backed by Russian assets before working to find similar methods to go around Hungary’s veto on defense funding for Kyiv.
Why it matters: Having now been relegated at nearly every turn despite holding the rotating presidency of the bloc, Hungary has become just about as much of a pariah state within the EU as is possible without being ejected outright. While it is unlikely that the country will actually be removed from the union, in light of von der Leyen’s statements, it is theoretically possible for it to be ejected from the Schengen Agreement, which would limit the impact of Hungary’s open-door policy toward China and Russia on the rest of the bloc. Even if that is on the table however, we’re still a long way from such a dramatic and destabilizing move.
4. Controversial Italian offshore migrant detention centers, called “the Italian Guantanamo,” opened in Albania
After months of delays, Italy’s ambassador to Albania stated that detention centers for migrants seeking asylum in Italy have now been opened in Albania. The facilities, which were the subject of a 2023 agreement between Italy and Albania and have been likened to “an Italian Guantanamo,” will house up to 3,000 men a month as their asylum cases are processed, for a total of 36,000 migrants per year.
Why it matters: Having been long in the making, the opening of these detention centers was part of a deal in which Italy’s PM Meloni would support Albania’s bid to join the EU in exchange for its hosting of migrant detainees on its soil. Human rights groups however have raised numerous objections to the move, namely that detainees would have no access to legal assistance, and that it is illegal under Italian law.
5. Kosovo was set to begin the trial of Serbs who attacked police officers last year as NATO warned of more ethnic violence to come
The controversial trial of 45 ethnic Serbs who attacked police officers in majority-Albanian Kosovo is set to start next week in the country’s capital, over a year after the politically motivated assailants killed one police officer and injured two others in the town of Banjska near the Serbian-Kosovo border. Only three of the men remain in custody in Kosovo however, as the majority fled to Serbia or were killed in a shootout by police. The trial is taking place against the backdrop of rising ethnic tensions in Kosovo since the killings, which a senior NATO official warned on Saturday may lead to renewed violence in the near future.
Why it matters: The trial of the Banjska attackers is undoubtedly politically charged for Kosovo’s ethnic Serb minority, which increasingly sees itself and its autonomy as coming under threat by the country’s government. Given unilateral actions by Kosovo over the last month to assert its sovereignty over its territory and Serbia’s tacit support for the attackers and the restive Serb community in Kosovo overall, it is almost certain that tensions will only rise further. The question, however, is whether the eventual violent consequences will remain limited and confined to Kosovo’s borders, or whether they will lead Serbia itself to intervene.
Other stories to watch:
— Russia may have moved MiG-31 jets to Belarus to evade Ukrainian strikes (The Kyiv Independent)
— Meta removes fake accounts in Moldova ahead of presidential election (Reuters)
— Romanian MEP slams ‘JEWS AND AMERICANS’ after ban from presidential race (Politico Europe)
— Slovakia to expand its base of repairing Ukrainian military hardware, foreign minister says (The Kyiv Independent)
— Turkey, Serbia Eye Cooperation On Production Of Military Drones (Radio Free Europe)
— Lithuanians elect new parliament amid cost of living, security worries (Reuters)