North Korean troops in Russia prepared to deploy to Ukraine, Moldova voted to join the EU, and European leaders backed Poland's migration policy
October 14-20 in Eastern Europe
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. 11,000 North Korean troops are in Russia preparing for deployment to Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities have claimed
Ukraine has released footage of what it says are North Korean soldiers being given military fatigues and equipment at a base in Russia after the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that around 11,000 North Korean troops were currently training for deployment in Russia. Another video released online purports to show North Korean troops undergoing such training. According to Budanov, Russia is planning to deploy North Koreans to Ukraine starting in November, with 2,600 slated to travel to Kursk Oblast, which remains partially under Ukrainian occupation. This comes as Russia continued its steady advance in Ukraine’s Donbas, with street battles taking place in the town of Selydove, and as Ukrainian forces struck a major military manufacturer in Russia’s Lipetsk Oblast.
Why it matters: The deployment of North Korean soldiers to Ukraine will mark the first time that active duty troops from a non-European state will be engaged in combat on European soil at least since World War I. Despite the show of force that such a deployment would signal, it also indicates manpower and weapons shortages Russia is likely facing as it continuously struggles to replenish its forces in new and creative ways. As North Korea becomes more closely involved in the Ukraine war, the conflict will have the potential to impact military affairs on the Korean peninsula at a time of increased tensions there as well.
2. Moldovans narrowly voted to join the European Union, despite rampant Russian interference
After months of Russian attempts to meddle in Moldova’s twin elections on Sunday, citizens in the country narrowly voted in favor of joining the European Union in a national referendum, with less than a 1% margin of victory. Meanwhile, on the same day, the country’s incumbent, pro-Western president Maia Sandu won the largest share of votes in the presidential election, advancing to the second round of voting against pro-Russian challenger Alexandr Stoianoglo. The vote took place against the backdrop of widespread Kremlin efforts to influence the election both online and offline including a scheme to buy hundreds of thousands of votes, which Sandu described as “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.” Russia spent up to $100 million on meddling in the elections, Moldova has claimed.
Why it matters: Yesterday’s elections in Moldova were likely one of the most consequential in the country’s modern history, and appeared set to determine the country’s near-future trajectory. Sandu’s advance to the next round of voting and the victory of the “yes” camp in the EU referendum have likely cemented Moldova’s years-long westward drift away from Russia and its post-Soviet legacy, and are a major win for advocates of European integration in the country. However the fact that these twin successes came down to a couple thousand votes has been disconcerting for Sandu and the EU, and points to the broad impact of Russia interference operations in the country. Although Moldova will now embark on its path toward Europe with wind in its sails, this journey may not be without speed bumps and the consequences of internal divisions that continue to plague one of the continent’s poorest countries.
3. Poland introduced its new migration policy as EU leaders rallied behind PM Tusk on his suspension of migrants’ rights to asylum
After shocking the EU by suspending asylum rights for migrants, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled his government’s new migration plan on Tuesday, which makes prevention of illegal immigration a national security priority, and demands changes to asylum procedures in light of their alleged manipulation by Russia and Belarus. Following a high-level meeting in Brussels on Thursday, EU leaders appeared to line up in support Tusk’s approach, issuing a statement agreeing with his assessment of Poland’s security challenges and the need to suspend asylum procedures as they currently exist.
Why it matters: Last week, I wrote about the monumental impact of Tusk’s move for UnHerd, predicting that would signal an alarming continent-wide shift on migration approaches. This week, this proved correct, with mainstream leaders in Europe joining Tusk in apparently calling to alter one of the foundational pillars of international migration law. Poland’s new migration policy may well become a model for other countries in the EU to follow as well, and even though on paper it claims to continue to adhere to the union’s legal principles, in practice, recent bloc-wide measures like the polarizing EU migration pact may well fade into the background as states follow Poland in pursuing much more restrictive, security-focused policies of their own. The impact of this on refugees and asylum seekers in Europe cannot be overstated, as many individuals who would have previously enjoyed international protection may now be quite literally left out in the cold.
4. Hungary’s Orbán called Ukraine’s peace plan “more than frightening,” and refused to participate in its implementation
Hungary’s pro-Russian PM Viktor Orbán derided Zelensky’s outline of his victory plan before Ukraine’s Parliament last week, calling it “more than frightening” and urging an immediate move toward EU-led peace negotiations with Russia to end a war Ukraine and the West are losing, according to Orbán. Zelensky’s victory plan, which includes secret appendices he has shared with certain allies, focuses on taking the fight to Russian territory, arming Ukraine with a non-nuclear deterrent, deploying Ukrainian troops across Europe after the war, and more. In addition to stating his disapproval, Orbán later stated that he would not allow Hungary to take part in the victory plan’s implementation if were accepted by the EU.
Why it matters: Zelensky’s plan has yet to be embraced by Ukraine’s allies, and has presented opponents like Orbán with an opportunity to paint Zelensky as a threat to European peace, rather than the opposite. Although Orbán’s comments on the matter are far from surprising, they mark yet another way in which he is casting himself as the standard bearer for the illiberal, anti-Ukrainian opposition within the EU — in an interview on a Hungarian TV show on Friday, Orbán painted the matter in starker terms than ever before: “there are the others and then there are us,” he said.
5. A court in Rome forced the first migrants transferred to Italian detention centers in Albania to return to Italy
Shortly after the first 16 migrants were sent to recently opened Italian detention centers in Albania, Italian courts have ruled that they must be returned to Italy — partly out of concerns for the health of minors and vulnerable people among them, and partly because of concerns that the Italian state had misidentified their countries of origin as “safe.” The crux of the issue is that according to the courts, these people cannot legally be detained in Albania, and thus must be returned to Italy to have their asylum claims processed, because they also cannot be deported to their countries of origin. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has vowed to appeal the rulings.
Why it matters: These court decisions present a major challenge to Meloni’s migrant detention plan in Albania, which was established last year on the condition that she would advocate for Albania’s quick accession to the EU. Although the details of this particular case may be granular, at its core, it challenges the idea that countries in the EU can lean on non-EU states like Albania that are looking for ways to advance their standing in Europe to bear the weight of their migration problems.
Other stories to watch:
— Georgia’s pivot to Russia ‘might be a plan,’ president says (Politico Europe)
— Estonia: deportation of Crimean Tatars was Genocide (Genocide Watch)
— ‘I fight Russia to topple the tyrant of Belarus’: the Lukashenko guard who defected to the front line in Ukraine (The Guardian)
— Another Russian Anti-War Activist Forced To Leave Serbia, NGO Says (Radio Free Europe)
— Romania scrambles fighter jets after an unidentified object breaches its airspace (Associated Press)
— Sweden has announced its plans to join the NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group in Latvia (Militarnyi)
— Slovenian PM faces criminal complaint for ‘interfering in police affairs’ (Politico Europe)
— Lithuania's centre-left opposition says it will try to form government (Reuters)
— EU Helps North Macedonia, Bulgaria Settle Dispute Over Railway Link (Balkan Insight)