NATO renews support for Ukraine, Trump's VP pick puts pressure on Zelensky, and Poland spars with NATO over missile defense
July 8-15 in Eastern Europe
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Because I’m publishing this issue a day late, I’ve decided to also include news from Monday, July 15 in this week’s roundup.
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. NATO members pledged continued support for Ukraine after Russia struck a children’s cancer hospital in Kyiv
In the wake of a Russian missile attack on a major children’s cancer hospital in Kyiv that killed 33 and injured over 140 during the widest-ranging strikes on the Ukrainian capital in 4 months, NATO members at the alliance’s summit in Washington, DC last week pledged to collectively devote at least $43 billion to Ukraine’s defense effort over the next year. The US also pledged to send additional air defense systems to Kyiv, and although membership was not offered for Ukraine, the alliance affirmed that the country is on an “irreversible path” to joining NATO. Although US and NATO weapons have recently allowed Ukraine to consequentially strike Russian forces, including on Russian territory itself, Ukraine’s Zelensky has maintained that his country needs far more air defense systems and aircraft than NATO has pledged so far.
Why it matters: Affirmations of NATO’s support for Ukraine, coupled with new weapons pledges, are particularly important in light of the increasing likelihood of Donald Trump’s return to office in the US and recent gains by Eurosceptic right-wing parties in Europe, and air defenses in particular will be crucial for limiting Russian war crimes of the sort that took place in Kyiv. However until NATO is able to give Ukraine enough air defense systems to defend its entire airspace and enough ground-based equipment to turn its successful strikes against Russian troops behind enemy lines in battlefield gains, Ukrainian security will improve little in the medium-term.
2. Proposals for Russia-Ukraine peace talks gained steam as Trump picked Vance to be his running mate
In the wake of the attempt on his life late last week, Donald Trump chose J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate on Monday, raising alarm bells in Ukraine and in the EU. Vance, who recently denounced US funding for Kyiv and has criticized Europe’s reliance on the US for its security, has also spoken in favor of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in which Ukraine should be ready to cede occupied territory. Such peace talks, which would be disadvantageous for Ukraine by default, have been growing in support on both the American and Europe right, with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán praising Trump’s plans to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end if elected. Zelensky himself appears to have budged on the issue — despite not directly calling for talks with Russia, the Ukrainian leader has stated he is planning a peace summit that would include Russia in November.
Why it matters: Zelensky’s apparently newfound willingness to engage with Russia, even informally, is no coincidence, and is connected to the shifting ties in Europe and the US that may make it difficult for him to defend his country in the near future. Trump’s selection of Vance makes it abundantly clear that, if elected, their administration will make such peace talks a priority, and Zelensky will have little room to resist. However, playing ball on the matter may be one way for Zelensky to secure some goodwill with Trump in order to convince him to continue supporting Ukraine’s defense even as preparations for negotiations move forward.
3. Poland signed a security pact with Ukraine as NATO declined Polish proposals to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine
Zelensky and Polish PM Donald Tusk signed a security agreement in Warsaw last week that made provisions for the training of a “Ukrainian legion” on Polish territory, coming on the heels of the announcement of a NATO training center for Ukrainians living abroad in Poland. Crucially, the pact also stated that Poland would plan on shooting down Russian missiles and drones heading for Polish territory while they were still in Ukrainian airspace — an action that has since been rejected by outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg since it would directly involve NATO in the conflict. This diplomatic disagreement took place after Stoltenberg announced a new US air defense base in northern Poland that would intercept Russian ballistic missiles as part of an alliance-wide defense effort.
Why it matters: The contradictory statements by Poland and NATO get to the heart of a central question facing the alliance at a critical moment in the Ukraine conflict — does NATO wait for Russia to act first and attack the alliance outright, or does it move to minimize the threat to NATO by becoming more directly engaged in Ukraine. For countries like Poland, deploying active defense measures over Ukrainian territory would be a way to help stop Russia from touching off a continent-wide war, but also holds risks of its own that the Polish government is trying to grapple with. Resolving this dispute will be critical to the future of NATO policy in Europe.
4. Pressure mounted against Hunary’s Orbán in the EU after his visit to Moscow and his pleas for Europe to reopen ties with Russia
In the wake of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s visit to Moscow earlier this month, he sent a letter last week to EU leaders that not only demanded peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, but also called on Europe to restart diplomatic communications with Russia. According to German media, Orbán went further, asking European Council President Charles Michel to reopen diplomatic relations with Moscow. for In response to Orbán’s outreach to Russia, top EU officials announced on Monday that they would boycott Hungary’s informal meetings in its capacity as the temporary head of the Council of the EU, while a large group of European Parliamentary members have called on the bloc to strip Hungary of its voting rights.
Why it matters: Despite trying to brand himself as a dove who has gotten more moderate on Russia, Orbán and Hungary as a whole have grown more isolated than ever internationally since the country took over the rotating presidency of the EU Council, not just in the EU, but also within NATO. These recent developments show that Orbán’s influence within the halls of power in Europe is lower than ever. But given the rise of the right-wing on the continent, Orbán may be playing the long game by counting on a takeover of the EU by the European Right, where he is emerging as a critical unifying standard bearer.
5. Assaults and state pressure push press freedom in Georgia to the brink, putting exiled journalists taking refuge in the country at risk
In the wake of the Georgian government’s passage in May of its infamous foreign agent law, NGO reports have warned that journalistic freedom in the country has reached a crisis point as members of the press have faced physical assaults, lawsuits, and destruction of property. Exiled journalists from Russia and Belarus in Georgia have also faced state pressure, putting their ability to work independently at risk.
Why it matters: Despite having been a promising democracy on Russia’s periphery for years that had been granted EU candidate status last year, the Georgian state’s closeness to Russia and its apparent crackdown on independent media in the country threaten to derail Georgia’s democratic future. The foreign agent law, which was passed despite massive street protests this spring, has not only undermined the country’s path to Europe, but has reportedly already led to very real consequences for the country’s NGO and media environment.
Other trends to watch:
— Poland’s foreign minister has said Poland is on track to spend 5% of its GDP on defense in 2025.
— Czech President Petr Pavel stated Ukraine will receive 100,000 Czech artillery shells per month in the near future.
— Ukraine shot four military deserters trying to flee into Moldova, killing one.
— Estonian PM Kaja Kallas formally stepped down from her post to begin her role as the EU’s chief foreign diplomat.
— Belarusian authorities arrested 56 people during a raid on a secret rock concert in the country, claiming it had apprehended people tied to the 2020 anti-government protests and relatives of Belarusians fighting on Ukraine’s side against Russia.
— Polish nationalists unveiled a divisive monument to Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during WII. Far-right politicians from the Confederation party attended the unveiling ceremony for the monument, which shows a baby being impaled by a Ukrainian trident, or tryzub.
— In response to EU pressure, Slovakia amended its controversial criminal reform bill that had generated protests earlier this year.