Moldova's pro-EU leader wins elections, Ukraine faces brutal assault from Russia, and Poland hopes Biden will let it down Russian missiles over Ukraine

October 29-November 3 in Eastern Europe

Nov 04, 2024

The aftermath of a Russian attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 2, 2024 (Main Directorate of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kyiv via Wikimedia)

What You Need To Know:

This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories

1. Moldova’s pro-European president won the country’s runoff election in the face of unprecedented Russian interference

In the country’s most important presidential election in decades on Sunday, Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu handily defeated her challenger Alexandr Stoianoglo who had been backed by pro-Russian forces in the country, largely relying on the diaspora vote to secure her victory. The election, which marked the second round of voting after no candidate managed to cross the 50% mark in the first round, was marred by “massive” Russian interference according to Moldova’s national security advisor, with the country’s election commission claiming it was aware of several illegal efforts to transport voters in Russia, Turkey, Belarus, and elsewhere. The election took place after a massive Russian-backed vote-buying operation had threatened to pay off up to 300,000 voters during the previous EU referendum.

Why it matters: Sandu’s re-election, which took place after the country voted by a razor thin margin to join the EU late last month, marked a decisive victory for Moldova’s European aspirations, and likely spells the end of any efforts by Russia to meaningfully derail the country’s path toward European accession. Moscow still holds powerful levers to influence politics in the country, most notably energy resources and power plants in the Russian-backed breakaway territory of Transnistria in eastern Moldova, but these have also been blunted over the last year due to the Moldovan government’s efforts to integrate its power grid with Romania’s. The Kremlin may still continue to use hybrid warfare tactics against Moldova, but at this point, there is very little it can do to stop the country from joining the EU and NATO in the near future.

2. Ukraine faced ‘one of the most powerful Russian offensives’ of the war as Moscow’s ‘human safaris’ finally received news coverage

As Russian forces continued to bear down on Ukrainian position around the strategically crucial town of Pokrovsk in the Donbas, commanders have described Russia’s push in the region as “one of the most powerful Russian offensives” since the start of the entire war in 2022, with the Russian military reportedly capturing two towns in the vicinity of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile though, a report from the BBC covered Russia’s targeting of civilians in the frontline city of Kherson with drones for the first time, in which Russian drones would “hunt” civilians from the air before dropping grenades on them. This behavior, which is a war crime, has led to some 30 deaths in the city since July. Ukrainian observers, who have likened this to a “human safari,” have lauded the coverage of the practice, which had previously remained unreported.

Why it matters: Russia’s assault on Ukrainian civilians has never abated over the course of the past 2.5 years of war, and the hunt for civilians in Kherson showcases the ways in which Moscow continues to intentionally terrorize Ukrainians within the reach of their weapons. As attention increasingly shifts to peace talks and ceasefire negotiations to end the fighting in Ukraine, it remains vital to remember that Russia’s occupation of the country continues to be an avenue for Moscow not only to brutalize the civilian population, but also to steadily wipe out Ukrainian culture and national identity. As the end of the war likely draws closer, Russian offensives in the Donbas will aim to capture as much territory as possible to create facts on the ground to maximize their standing in eventual negotiations.

3. Amid high hopes from Polish FM Sikorski, US House members urged Biden to let Poland shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine

Members of the US House of Representatives belonging to the bipartisan U.S. Helsinki Commission called on Joe Biden to allow Poland to shoot down Russian projectiles over Ukraine heading toward Poland, after weeks of proposals from Polish officials to use Polish air defense systems to secure western Ukrainian airspace from threats to NATO. Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated last week that he “expected” the US and NATO to change their position on the matter.

Why it matters: Motivated by repeated Russian breaches of its airspace and several projectiles landing on its territory since 2022, Poland has been advocating approval to utilize its air defense over western Ukraine for months, however has been shut down by NATO time and time again, as I wrote in UnHerd in September. Although the urging of US lawmakers alone may not be enough to swing the White House’s opinion on the matter, especially just before the US election, recent history has shown that the US generally surrenders to political inertia and eventually gives in to Ukraine and its allies’ demands. On this specific issue however, Poland continues to face many obstacles on various fronts within NATO, and it will be impossible to ascertain the likelihood of its success until Americans cast their votes on Tuesday.

4. Georgia’s president refused to testify before the state prosector on allegations of vote rigging after the country’s contested election

In the wake of Georgia’s contested elections, Georgia’s Western-oriented President Salome Zourabichvili was called in for questioning by the state prosecutor’s office as it investigated claims of vote rigging, but she refused to attend, stating it was not her responsibility to provide proof of election interference and that ample evidence already existed in the public sphere. The decision to summon her for questioning took place shortly after deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, called for Zourabichvili’s arrest. Georgia’s government is led by the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party, which claims it won last month’s parliamentary elections despite reports of election meddling, interference, and intimidation.

Why it matters: Georgia’s head prosecutor was appointed by the ruling party, meaning that the investigation into the election result is likely to be biased. Zourabichvili’s refusal to cooperate is an indication of a larger decoupling of the opposition from the government, and their refusal to work with any state organs as long as Georgian Dream remains in power. The summons for Zourabichvili is especially concerning in light of Medvedev’s statement and other recent commentary from Russia on the matter, which suggests that Georgia’s politics will remain not only incredibly divided, but interfered with by Russia, so long as the turmoil around the election continues.

5. In a slap to NATO, Hungary’s FM Szijjártó spoke at a security conference in Belarus alongside officials from Russia and Syria

On Thursday, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó attended the Minsk Conference on Eurasian Security in Belarus, which is widely seen as a rival conference to the Munich Security Conference attended by many NATO members, speaking alongside many leaders the West has spurned including Russian FM Lavrov, Syrian FM Sabbagh, and others. Szijjártó addressed the conference in Russian, and did not mention the war in Ukraine directly. He preempted criticism of his visit, stating that Hungary has the “sovereign right to negotiate with whomever we want.” In response to his presence at the conference, the US embassy in Hungary convened other NATO state ambassadors to discuss Hungary’s continued overtures to the Russian sphere.

Why it matters: The move is Hungary’s most blatant signal so far that it is willing to buck NATO dictates and openly present itself as a part of close circles made up of the alliance’s enemies. The implications of this are serious for NATO — the US’s meeting was predicated on discussing the security consequences of Hungary’s policy of increased closeness to Russia and China. As Hungary continues to chart its own course independent of NATO and the EU, its tolerance within these groupings will likely face unprecedented strain.

The Eastern Flank

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