Leaders hint that they may soon allow Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles, floods ravage Central Eastern Europe, and Serbia pressures Kosovo
September 11-15 in Eastern Europe
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What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Despite no formal promises, Secretary of State Blinken hinted the US may allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russia
After months of pressure from Ukrainian and Eastern European leaders on the issue, Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent strong signals on Wednesday that the US may soon give the green light for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia while on a visit in Kyiv with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, stating that the US “will continue” to evolve its strategy on the Ukrainian battlefield in response to moves by Russia. Although a subsequent meeting between US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer produced no clear promises on the missile issue, Biden has previously appeared willing to allow Ukraine to use French and British long-range weapons like the Storm Shadow to strike Russia, which the UK has already given Kyiv. The deliberations on the matter have come as Ukrainian forces faced potential encirclement in the Pokrovsk direction in the Donbas as well as an offensive by Russia to reclaim Ukrainian-occupied parts of Kursk Oblast.
Why it matters: Despite the lack of any formal change in US policy toward Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, the tide does seem to be turning in Kyiv’s favor. Alongside US officials’ stated evolution on the matter, the head of NATO’s military committee stated last week that Ukraine has a legal and military right to strike target deep within Russia in order to defend itself — a comment that, along with the UK’s apparent willingness to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles it already has to strike Russia, will likely put even more pressure on the White House on the issue. The US has a history of providing Ukraine with weapons before announcing the transfers officially, and it is likely that shipments of long-range missiles for use on Russian territory will fall into this same pattern in the coming weeks.
2. Heavy flooding in Poland, Czechia, Romania, and elsewhere killed at least 8 people and led to mass evacuations
In what could be the worst such disaster in the region in over two decades, regions across Poland, Czechia, Romania, as well as Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria have faced devastating floods that have left at least 8 people killed, damaged thousands of homes, and forced over 10,000 people to evacuate, mostly in Czechia. In Poland, a historic bridge was destroyed by floodwaters, and authorities stated they may declare a national state of disaster. Rainfall is expected to continue over the coming days, likely affecting Slovakia and Hungary in particular.
Why it matters: These floods are the latest event in a series of cyclical floods that have rocked the region, and Poland especially, in regular intervals most notably since the 1990s. Although authorities in affected countries have stated they are better prepared for these latest floods than in past years, climate scientists have stated that such dramatic events will continue in Europe as its climate shifts over the coming decades and as precipitation increases in intensity alongside rising temperatures.
3. Serbia’s Vučić called for elections in majority-Serb north Kosovo, vowing to declare all post-independence institutions in Kosovo illegal
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić unveiled a list of various decrees and demands regarding Kosovo this past week, including calls for new elections the Serb-dominated north of Kosovo, demands for Kosovo to withdraw its special forces from the north, vows to declare all institutions set up in Kosovo after it declared independence from Serbia in 2008 illegal, and promises to bring back the military draft in Serbia. Vučić’s statement came after Kosovo itself declared all of the Serbian government-influenced “parallel institutions” serving the ethnic Serb minority in the north illegal this month, coming after months of increasing tensions between the Kosovo government in Pristina and Belgrade.
Why it matters: Vučić’s comments considerably escalated the back-and-forth between Kosovo and Serbia on matters related to the Serb-majority north of the country, where the Kosovo government has previously banned the use of the Serbian dinar, enforced the use of Kosovo license plates in the area, and stated it would open a controversial bridge linking the two sides of the ethnically-divided city of Mitrovica. These events in turn have taken place against the backdrop of attacks by Serbs on Kosovo police last year, along with clashes related to the election of ethnic Albanian mayors in the north. Although Kosovo’s latest moves have aimed to assert its sovereignty over its entire territory, they have been made unilaterally, and have thus been heavily criticized by the US and other members of the international community. Now, Serbia is punching back, further raising the temperature and threatening to renew ethnic violence of the kind that has reared its ugly head in the area since the 1990s.
4. Poland proposed ending benefits to fighting age Ukrainian men living abroad to force them to return home to join the military
On a visit to Kyiv last week, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski called for European countries hosting Ukrainian refugees to end benefits for men of fighting age in order to incentivize them to return to Ukraine and enlist in the country’s military. The proposal was met with approval by Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and comes after Poland had previously suggested this year that it may assist Kyiv in repatriating fighting age men from its own territory to fight in Ukraine.
Why it matters: Ukraine passed a law earlier this year lowering the age of military mobilization from 27 to 25 in an effort to replenish troop shortages on the frontlines, but has faced problems drawing military age men back to the country from abroad to join the country’s defense. As the primary destination country for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing the conflict, Poland has been at the forefront of efforts to nudge Ukrainian men to return to their country, but this latest proposal has the potential to have the most far-reaching consequences yet if Poland decides to pursues it as a policy objective at the European level. Despite its benefit for the Ukrainian state however, such efforts risk producing discontent among Ukrainian civilian populations in European countries, which may lead to social tensions in Poland of the kind that took place when Ukrainian consulates in the country stopped issuing new passports this past spring.
5. Hungary stated it wants to deploy troops to Chad to stem migration and that it is ready to sue the EU for border protection funds
Following a dramatic diplomatic row with the EU and the imposition of a 200 million euro fine by the European Court of Justice over its migration policy, Hungary has now threatened to sue the EU leadership to gain additional funds to protect its borders. The move comes after Hungary had threatened to bus migrants from Hungary to Brussels in protest of the fine. Perhaps most surprisingly though, the Hungarian government has now stated it intends to deploy 200 soldiers to Chad after consultations with the central African country’s government in order stem migration from the region and to secure potential economic interests in the region, Russia-style.
Why it matters: Hungary has resorted to ever more dramatic and outlandish means as it has sought to paint itself as a right-wing dissident against the EU’s migration policy, and these latest moves are little more than continued theatrics by Budapest to double down on its conservative firebrand image. The pledge to commit troops to Chad, which has been in discussions since earlier this year, is unlikely to yield any concrete results for Budapest given the small number of troops involved, and is largely a publicity stunt to showcase its resolve in combatting migration along its borders.
Other trends to watch:
— Russia-aligned Belarus conducted military drills along its border with Poland allegedly in order to prevent incursions onto its territory of the sort that took place in Russia’s Kursk.
— Ukrainian fighter pilots are training on F-16s provided by NATO countries on bases in Romania.
— The de facto leader of Georgia’s pro-Russian Georgian Dream party stated that Georgia should apologize for the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 in which Russia invaded Georgia, sparking domestic political backlash.
— Elementary school students in the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska division of Bosnia will be taught about the achievements of Serb war criminals during the Bosnian War this school year, but not about their war crime convictions.
— British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated he will discuss a plan to house migrants bound for the UK in Albania when he meets with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni.
— The Bulgarian government has extended the timeline for negotiations on selling Russian-made nuclear reactors to Ukraine.
— Estonia recorded nearly 600 customs violations along its border with Russia following its introduction of full customs regulations along the border in August.