Last Week in Eastern Europe: Mar. 4-10, 2024
Poland raises options for NATO deployment to Ukraine, Ukraine seeks compromise with Poland amid protests, and a Russian missile nearly hits Zelensky's meeting with Greek PM
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I’m on vacation, so barring nuclear war, I’ll be taking time off from this newsletter next week. I’ll be back with a two-week roundup the following week though, so stay tuned!
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Amid largest ever NATO drills, Poland raised the possibility of NATO troops in Ukraine and backed defense investment in the EU
On Friday, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said a NATO deployment to Ukraine is “not unthinkable” in reference to a similar suggestion by French President Emmanuel Macron last week, stating the UN could put such an initiative together. His comments came following the start of the Dragon 24 NATO exercise in northern Poland, which included 20,000 troops from across the alliance and were part of its largest exercises ever. As part of a NATO-wide effort, Poland voted to suspend a 1990 treaty on Thursday that limited the size of European armies, and Polish leaders also joined Estonia and France in calling for European states to commit larger amounts to the EU’s arms industry after the introduction of a new EU defense strategy last week.
Why it matters: Despite initially trying to distance Poland from Macron’s statements about NATO troops in Ukraine, Polish leaders’ about-face on the possibility is meant to send a direct signal to Russia about the lengths NATO’s eastern members are willing to go to to support Ukraine. The fact these comments were made during the Dragon 24 drills, which are happening near the strategically important Suwałki Gap that connects the Baltics to the rest of NATO, is likely not lost on the Kremlin. As Eastern Europe’s most significant military powerhouse, Poland has long been a proponent of increased European defense spending, and Europe’s new defense strategy, which seeks to expand Europe’s military industry and its weapons procurement capacity, is a significant step toward realizing this ambition.
2. As farmers staged violent protests in Warsaw, Ukraine said it may accept trade restrictions with the EU to end its dispute with Poland
Ukraine’s trade minister said on Wednesday that the country would be willing to accept trade restrictions along its border with the EU to appease Poland and end the two countries’ mounting political dispute, so long as the EU bans grain imports from Russia. Polish PM Donald Tusk said he would call on the EU to do just that, and on Friday Poland’s Parliament approved sanctions on Russian and Belarusian food products. Polish farmers, largely backed by the Polish government’s protectionist trade policies, temporarily eased their blockade of Polish-Ukrainian border crossings on Sunday, but staged protests in the Polish capital Warsaw that turned violent as protestors clashed with police, leading to 12 arrests and several injuries.
Why it matters: Ukraine’s worsening relationship with Poland over its farmers’ protests, border blockades, and other provocative actions cannot continue indefinitely given Poland’s importance for Kyiv’s war effort, and a compromise is sorely needed. Although Ukraine’s olive branch offer is encouraging, the question remains whether the trade restrictions proposed by the Polish government so far will be enough to placate farmers, who continue to dictate the political conversation. Increasingly intense protest actions by farmers however suggest their mood is hardly conciliatory, meaning that the crisis is likely to continue for some time — especially since Polish leaders believe “Russian agents” may be playing a role in driving the protests.
3. A Russian missile nearly hit Zelensky’s meeting with the Greek PM as Ukraine sunk another Russian warship using high-tech drones
On Wednesday, a Russian missile struck a few hundred feet from the location where Ukraine’s Zelensky was meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, in what was described as the Ukrainian president’s "closest call ever” during such a diplomatic meeting. A day previously, Ukraine downed yet another Russian vessel on the Black Sea, which OSINT researchers have identified as the patrol ship Sergey Kotov. A video shows the Kotov being pursued by kamikaze sea drones. Despite this success though, Russia’s deployment of the FAB-1500, a powerful guided explosive, has allowed it to make gains along the frontlines in the Donbas, exacting heavily casualties and diminishing Ukrainian morale.
Why it matters: Although Russia was likely not aiming to hit Zelensky and Mitsotakis’s meeting, a direct hit on a meeting of this sort would likely provoke an international crisis, with potential NATO involvement. However, Ukraine’s continued success on the Black Sea has been critical for decimating Russia’s capability to carry out such missile strikes, so much so that Russia is building a new base for its fleet in Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied part of Georgia, in order to keep most of its vessels out of range of Ukrainian defenses. Nevertheless, Ukraine has continued to be on the back foot in its land battles, which are ultimately more important for its military success in the war.
4. Hungary’s Orbán met with Donald Trump and without seeking a meeting with Joe Biden, claiming Trump won’t give Ukraine any aid if elected
Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán visited Washington, D.C. on Thursday and gave a speech at the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank, before flying to Florida to meet with Donald Trump on Friday. According to Orbán, Trump reportedly told him he has “detailed plans” to end the war in Ukraine, in part by forcing Ukraine to capitulate by not giving it “a single penny” if elected. They also reportedly discussed border security and the “sovereignty of each nation.” In a highly unusual move for a head of state, Orbán didn’t meet with Joe Biden during his trip.
Why it matters: Orbán’s closeness to Trump goes back to his first term, and the Hungarian leader’s visit plainly demonstrated that he is betting on Trump’s return to office in 2025. By meeting with both Trump and the Heritage Foundation, which is working on a roadmap for a second Trump term, Orbán is clearly trying to play a role in shaping Trump’s policy vision, especially on the war in Ukraine. In light of Trump’s recent comments about not coming to NATO countries’ aid in the case of a Russian invasion, Orbán, who is widely seen as the most pro-Russian leader in the alliance, will likely have plenty of opportunities to slip his narrow vision of Eastern European politics into the doctrine of a second Trump administration — with potentially disasterous consequences for continental security.
5. France signed a defense agreement with Moldova amid threats of Russian interference via Transnistria
In another sign of his desire to play a larger role in European defense, French President Emmanuel Macron signed a defense pact with Moldovan President Maia Sandu to deter Russian interference on Thursday, vowing to give the country “unwavering support.” As part of the deal, France would help Moldova develop its armed forces, setting up a legal foundation for training, intelligence sharing, and talks on weapons sales have also reportedly begun.
Why it matters: After the Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria, which is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, asked Moscow for protection last month, Moldova’s security services warned of Russian attempts to meddle in its upcoming elections to derail the country’s path toward European integration. This new pact will likely strengthen Moldova position as it prepares to face these potential hybrid attacks, and will further bring the country into the EU and NATO orbit. However, they will likely also enflame tensions with already restive leaders in Transnistria and their backers in the Kremlin.
Other trends to watch:
— Following international backlash, a Russian woman opposed to the war in Ukraine living in Serbia had her expulsion order revoked. The woman had recently been included in an Associated Press investigation focused on Serbia’s repression of anti-war Russians in the country.
— A march in Warsaw mourned the death of Liza, a Belarusian woman who was raped and murdered in the Polish capital last month after she had fled Belarus to find a better life. A 23-year-old Polish man was charged for her rape and killing shortly after her death.
— Western intelligence claimed Russia is using a Serbian national to infiltrate EU institutions and spread Russian talking points. The individual, who is allegedly affiliated with the Serbian Military Trade Union, reportedly met with members of the European Parliament in 2023.
— Reports revealed last week that Chinese police may soon patrol alongside Hungarian police in some places as part of a recent agreement. Although such agreements between states are not uncommon, critics claim Chinese police would use the opportunity to keep tabs on its nationals living in Hungary.
— Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov, a Ukraine ally, resigned from his post on Tuesday following last year’s elections as had previously been agreed, but disputes within the country’s ruling coalition may lead it to fall apart if a compromise is not reached.