Last Week in Eastern Europe: Mar. 25-31, 2024
Czech and Polish intelligence target a major Russian influence network, Russia works to create a "sanitary" zone in Ukraine, and Putin says he'd strike F-16s at NATO bases
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Czechia and Poland cracked down on a Russian spy network and an influence operation targeting EU lawmakers led by Kremlin allies
Czech authorities announced on Thursday that they had discovered an extensive pro-Russian influence operation centered around a Prague-based news site that had paid politicians from Poland, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Belgium to promote a pro-Russian agenda in the European Parliament. The Czech government sanctioned the website, named Voice of Europe, and froze the assets of two Ukrainian nationals who allegedly ran the operation, including pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk whom Ukraine had handed over to Russia in a 2022 prisoner exchange. In cooperation with Czech intelligence, Poland carried out raids in several cities against a related Russian espionage network that aimed to weaken “Poland’s position on the world stage” and damage the image of Ukraine and the EU. The raids were also tied to the January arrest of a politically-connected Polish citizen suspected of working for Russian intelligence.
Why it matters: This combined operation appears to potentially be one of the largest and most far-reaching Russian influence efforts in Europe since the war in Ukraine began, with high-profile backers like Medvedchuk who is a personal friend of Vladimir Putin. The campaign’s targeting of EU lawmakers is particularly dangerous in light of European Parliamentary elections later this year, and its focus on Poland underscores how critical the country has become in Russia’s calculus in Ukraine.
2. Russia stepped up efforts to create a “sanitary” border zone in Ukraine while Kyiv marked successes in its strikes on Russian oil sites
Russia has recently appeared to ramp up its efforts to create a potential “sanitary” buffer zone along its border with Ukraine by seeking to decimate border towns and villages in areas like Sumy Oblast, and Ukraine has reportedly lagged behind in creating adequate ground defenses to counter Russian advances along the frontline in the east and south. Russia has continued to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure with strikes on cities like Kharkiv and Odesa last week, but evidence suggests that Kyiv’s own strikes on Russian oil facilities have been so successful that they have forced Moscow to turn to Belarus for gasoline imports, according to Reuters.
Why it matters: Citing the recent uptick in land incursions from Ukraine into Russian territory, Putin has floated the idea of a “sanitary” zone along Ukraine’s northern border on several occasions. The effort to establish such a zone through heavy artillery and missile strikes has already led some villages to be almost entirely destroyed, and considering the genocidal nature of Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories so far, liquidation of these border areas prior to their occupation could be a potential goal. Although the Russian assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure remains a significant hurdle for the country, Kyiv’s success in its strikes on Russian oil sites could be a major obstacle to Moscow’s ability to execute its mounting offensive.
3. Putin said he may target Ukraine-bound F-16s at NATO bases while Poland’s PM Tusk warned of a new “pre-war” age in Europe
Despite denying he would launch a war against NATO, Vladimir Putin paradoxically said that F-16s slated to be sent to the Ukrainian army would be “legitimate target[s]” while stationed at NATO bases on Thursday, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made headlines for claiming Europe has entered a “pre-war” era with Russia. In response to Russian strikes in Ukraine, Polish jets were scrambled for the second time in two weeks on Friday.
Why it matters: After training on them for months, Ukrainian pilots are awaiting the arrival of 42 US-made F-16s to the battlefield this year, but as Ukraine has few airbases and runways that can accommodate them, it is possible that many of the jet fighters would be housed in bases on NATO soil. Russian strikes on such bases would trigger an Article 5 conflict between NATO and Russia, meaning that Putin is unlikely to follow through on his threats. Nevertheless, there is a growing consensus among European leaders like Tusk, who has recently joined French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz as part of the revitalized Weimar Triangle defense alliance, that war with Russia is only a matter of time.
4. Talks between Poland and Ukraine on border blockades and grain protests yielded results, but a final deal remained out of reach
Polish PM Donald Tusk met with his Ukrainian counterpart Denys Shmyhal on Thursday in a long-awaited meeting in Warsaw to tackle the escalating grain crisis and Polish farmers’ blockade of the countries’ shared border. Both leaders said that the meetings had yielded significant progress on addressing Polish farmers’ grievances, agreeing that EU restrictions on Russian and Belarusian grain would help alleviate the crisis, however an ultimate deal was not yet reached. The talks were marked by a temporary reopening of one border crossing between Poland and Ukraine, and the inking of a new deal between EU diplomats that would extend the tariff-free regime for Ukrainian imports into the bloc, but with restrictions.
Why it matters: For months, favorable import regulations for Ukrainian grain and food products had been one of the key factors motivating Polish farmers to stage border blockades and at-times violent protests, which have significantly soured Polish-Ukrainian relations. A key Ukrainian request has been that the EU take steps to restrict Russian and Belarusian grain imports to ease the burden on farmers instead of placing the onus entirely on Ukraine, so the fact that productive meetings are taking place between the two countries with this in mind, together with planned reforms on the EU stage, are positive signs for the two countries’ future. Nevertheless it remains to be seen whether Poland’s restive farmers will fall in line anytime soon.
5. Serbia’s Vučić warned of a looming fight as Bosnia’s Serb leader issued threats in response to Bosnia’s new electoral law
After Bosnia’s international peace envoy introduced an election reform law that aims to increase electoral integrity and bar convicted war criminals from running in the country’s October elections, the leader of Bosnia’s Serbs, Putin ally Milorad Dodik, threatened to block the country’s government from functioning unless the law is withdrawn and Western diplomats leave the country. In response to the law, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić, who backs Dodik, issued a cryptic statement suggesting the law threatens Serbia’s “national interests” but that it will “win” the coming fight.
Why it matters: Having recently been approved to start EU accession talks, Bosnia’s fraud-ridden elections are in dire need of reform, and this marks the second time that the country’s internationally-appointed peace representative has intervened in its electoral laws. The envoy, who has broad powers to make laws in Bosnia as per the peace treaty that ended the Bosnian War in 1995, is not recognized by Dodik, who has long sought to secede from Bosnia and join the Serb-majority part of the country to Serbia. The crisis has escalated this year after Dodik was put on trial for violating the envoy’s rulings, and Vučić’s growing efforts to connect the Bosnian leader’s agenda to Serbia’s own interests has further exacerbated tensions in the country.
Other trends to watch:
— In an unprecedented move, Poland moved to put its central bank governor before a state tribunal while also raiding the home of a former right-wing justice minister. Several unnamed individuals were reportedly arrested.
— Bulgaria and Romania partially joined the visa-free Schengen Zone on Sunday by air and sea, but with continued restrictions on travel by land.
— A Moldovan court ruled that candidates from the Shor Party, a party headed by a pro-Russian billionaire, will be able to stand in the upcoming presidential elections. The Shor Party had previously been accused of financing Russian hybrid warfare operations and pro-Russian protests in the country.
— Poland’s right-wing President Duda vetoed a move to make emergency birth control prescription-free, keeping Poland as one of only two EU states with such regulations.
— Details of a Ukrainian POW exchange in Hungary were revealed for the first time. According to DW, one of the conditions of the much-maligned deal Hungary had reached with Russia was that the Ukrainian soldiers would only be allowed to return to their homeland after the end of the war.
— A recent poll found that 81% of Estonians are in favor of taking voting rights away from Russian citizens in the country.
— Thousands of people protested against Hungary’s Viktor Orbán after he was accused of interfering in a corruption case.
— Bulgarian politicians refused to form a government, putting the country on a path to its 6th general election since 2021.