Last Week in Eastern Europe: Jan. 29-Feb. 4, 2024
Zelensky prepares to dismiss Ukraine's top general, the EU passes a critical aid package for Ukraine after Hungary drops its veto, and a Latvian MEP is revealed to be a Russian spy
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. After months of rivalry, Zelensky makes moves to dismiss General Valeriy Zaluzhny, head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Although no announcement has publicly been made yet, multiple news outlets have now reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky decided to remove Ukraine’s top military leader General Valeriy Zaluzhny on Monday. According to reports, Zelensky asked the general to resign and offered him a defense advisor role instead, but Zaluzhny apparently refused. Ukraine has informed the US about the decision, and although no replacement has yet been formally chosen, two individuals close to Zelensky, Ukrainian military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov and the head of Ukraine’s land forces Oleksandr Syrskyi, are supposedly in the running for the role.
Why it matters: Zelensky and Zaluzhny had reportedly been feuding for months, especially after Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive failed to achieve any kind of breakthrough along the front. Although little would likely change militarily for Ukraine with a shift in leadership, it could disrupt established lines of communication between Ukraine’s military brass and its Western counterparts, and could also open up rifts between Ukrainian civilian leaders and the army, where support for Zaluzhny remains high. Instability of this sort is the last thing Ukraine needs now.
2. At a key summit, Hungary’s Orbán finally dropped his veto and allowed the EU to pass a vital 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine
After months of stubbornly blocking the package, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán finally gave in to the EU’s demands and withdrew his veto, allowing the bloc to approve the massive assistance bundle on Thursday. The EU had previously threatened to revoke Hungary’s voting rights or to implicitly sabotage its economy if it continued to block the aid. The breakthrough took place after Hungary’s Foreign Minister met with the Ukrainian FM last Monday to discuss language laws and the rights of the Hungarian minority in southwestern Ukraine, which had long been a concern for Hungary. The Ukrainian side was reportedly eager to resolve both issues.
Why it matters: The 50 billion euro package will allow Ukraine to keep its health sector, its pensions, and its economy afloat in 2024 as it continues to weather its war with Russia. Yet the deal has also exposed Orbán’s weaknesses, and has put him under increased pressure to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO, as he finally pledged to do last month. Hungary’s meetings with Ukraine are the first steps toward a potential thaw between the two countries, and could pave the way for an eventual meeting between Orbán and Zelensky — although this is still a long way away.
3. A Latvian member of the European Parliament was revealed to be a Russian spy
A Latvian MEP, Tatjana Ždanoka, had reportedly been working for the Russian FSB since 2005, according to leaked emails obtained as part of a collaboration between four different media outlets. Ždanoka has long held pro-Russian views, and refused to condemn the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and had previously supported the invasion of Crimea. The EU Parliament has launched an investigation into the matter, and Latvian legislators claimed Ždanoka is not alone.
Why it matters: Ždanoka appears to be one of the highest level European officials who has been accused of being on the FSB’s payroll so far, raising questions about how she was able to evade detection for so long. Russia has cultivated a network of politicians, academics, and beyond across Europe for years, which it utilizes in its information gathering and political influence operations.
4. Poland’s government has renewed calls for Germany to pay reparations for damages Poland suffered during World War II
In a surprising move, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has asked Germany for financial reparations for losses Poland suffered during World War II. Although he was less blunt than Poland’s previous right-wing leaders who had asked Germany to pay Poland 1.3 trillion dollars for war damages, Sikorski asked Germany to get “creative” about how it will compensate Poland for the brutal occupation, mass murder, and genocide it committed in the country over six years of war.
Why it matters: Poland’s new liberal government, which is widely seen as much more pro-EU than its predecessor, has continued to buck expectations, and has challenged Brussels on issues like trade and agricultural policy. These new calls for reparations are likely aimed at Poland’s domestic audience, and are meant to show that the new government is willing to bring Poland back into the EU mainstream while continuing to fight for Polish interests on the European stage.
5. A court in Albania green lit a deal to house Italy’s asylum seekers while their claims are processed, raising human rights concerns
On Monday, an Albanian court approved an agreement between the Albanian and Italian governments in which most people seeking asylum in Italy would be housed in Albanian detention centers while their claims are processed. The deal was initially signed in November, but came under judicial review after the Albanian opposition claimed it was unconstitutional. In exchange for temporarily taking in Italy’s asylum seekers, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has pledged to strongly advocate for Albania’s accession to the EU.
Why it matters: Human rights watchdogs have suggested the move may increase the chances of exposing refugees and migrants to rights violations in their quest for asylum. The deal, which mirrors a similar effort by the UK to house asylum seekers in Rwanda, is part of a larger trend in which host countries have sought to offshore their asylum responsibilities to third parties, potentially undermining the basis for the international asylum system itself.
Other trends to watch:
— The Czech Republic confirmed the purchase of 24 American F-35s on Monday, which will make it only the second F-35 operator in Eastern Europe after Poland. The purchase is being called the most important event in modern Czech military history.
— On Monday, a nationalist leader in Romania echoed right-wing politicians in Hungary who claimed that if Ukraine were to lose its sovereignty, their nations should claim parts of the country they controlled before World War II. In this fantasy, Hungary would take back control of Zakarpattia Oblast, while Romania would occupy Northern Bukovina, Southern Bessarabia, and the Hertsa region near Chernivtsi.
— On Tuesday, Bulgaria issued European arrest warrants for 6 Russian GRU members who were found responsible for carrying out terrorist attacks in Bulgaria in 2011 and planning an attack in the Czech Republic.
— The Institute for Study of War has claimed Russia is creating conditions to destabilize Moldova over the issue of Transnistria, the Russian-occupied breakaway republic that is internationally recognized as part of Moldova.
— Polish farmers pledged on Thursday to block the Polish-Ukrainian border once again in new protests. The previous months-long border blockade ended in January following a government deal with demonstrators.