Last Week in Eastern Europe: Jan. 22-28, 2024
Ukraine faces critical ammunition shortages, Poland's opposition hints at a coup and alleges torture of an MP, and newly elected PMs meet with Ukrainian leaders
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Russian missile barrages killed and injured dozens in Ukraine as ammunition shortages begin to impact the country’s defense capabilities
Russian missiles killed 19 and left 120 injured in Kyiv and Kharkiv on Tuesday while Moscow’s forces continued to escalate offensive operations in Avdiivka in the Donbas and in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Due in part to delays in assistance from Europe and the US, the Ukrainian military is rapidly running out of ammunition, most critically for artillery along the front but also for its air defense systems. Resurgent corruption in Ukraine isn’t helping — security services reported on Saturday that five officials were charged with embezzling $40 million in funds meant for mortar shell procurement.
Why it matters: Artillery has been crucial for repelling assaults and regaining ground along the frontline since the start of the War in Ukraine, and supplies of ammunition can make or break a battle. Moreover, looming air defense munition shortages mean that more Russian missiles will reach their targets, likely leading to more civilian deaths in the near-term. Without adequate resupplies of both, it will be difficult for Ukraine to hold back current and future Russian offensives.
2. Poland’s opposition party alleged that one of its jailed MPs was tortured in prison as the party’s leader appeared to hint at a coup against the recently elected government
After being released from prison Wednesday following a presidential pardon, one of the MPs from the former ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) who were jailed for abuse of power convictions alleged that authorities had tortured him by trying to force feed him during a hunger strike. On Thursday, PiS filed a complaint with the Council of Europe on the matter, and on the same day, the party’s leader Jarosław Kaczyński appeared to encourage supporters to use “various methods” against Poland’s new government, comparing its leader, Donald Tusk, to Hitler.
Why it matters: Although the Polish press has raised doubts about these torture allegations, they fit into a growing narrative by PiS, which remains the largest party in Parliament, that the country’s new government is illegitimate and must be opposed at all costs. Kaczyński’s statement wasn’t the first time his party had implicitly threatened violence against the new government — the new Parliament Speaker said earlier this month that PiS politicians had told him they would stage a second January 6th in Poland’s Parliament. At best, political threats like these will tie the hands of the new government, but at worst, they may destabilize Polish democracy itself.
3. Newly elected Prime Ministers from Poland and Slovakia visited Ukraine, pledging varying levels of support to Kyiv’s war effort
Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Monday, where the pair reportedly “reached a common understanding” on recently-suspended protests by Polish farmers and truckers that had blocked the Polish-Ukrainian border. Poland also unveiled a new weapons package for Ukraine, and discussed loans for larger weapons purchases. Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico, who had previously campaigned on cutting military aid to Ukraine, made a sudden about-face after meeting Ukrainian officials on Wednesday, saying he would not prevent Slovak defense firms from selling arms to Ukraine. Just days earlier, Fico had said that Ukraine was not a sovereign country, and should cede territory to Russia.
Why it matters: At this point, Ukraine needs all the help it can get. This much-needed reset in its relations with Poland after a somewhat acrimonious period last year will allow the two countries to resume mutually beneficial cooperation while maintaining Poland’s economic interests. Fico’s backtracking on the other hand highlights just how much the realities of politics can diverge from populist campaign rhetoric, and suggests that Fico’s Ukraine agenda may be more moderate than it previously seemed.
4. Hungary’s Orbán finally agreed to Sweden’s NATO membership as the EU devised plans to strong-arm him on Ukraine aid
After a year and a half of stalling, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán agreed to push his country’s parliament to vote on Sweden’s accession to NATO on Wednesday after it became the lone holdout following Turkey’s ratification earlier last week — although the Hungarian Parliament doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to hold the vote. Meanwhile, the EU has reportedly drawn up a plan to undermine Hungary’s economy by withholding critical funds if Budapest again blocks a 52 billion euro aid package for Ukraine at a summit on Feb. 1, and may strip Orbán of his voting rights as well.
Why it matters: Hungary has long been a thorn in both the EU’s and NATO’s side on rule of law issues, support for Ukraine, and more — but with patience within the EU finally growing thin, Orbán may finally face consequences for many years of political theater. On the matter of Sweden’s NATO accession, Orbán’s decision to (eventually) move forward with ratifying its membership is good news for the alliance, and will expand its strategic capabilities to counter Russia in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic.
5. In a bid to consolidate sovereignty, Kosovo has banned the Serbian dinar, widely used by Serbs in its north
After a year of at-times violent tensions with its ethnic Serb minority, Kosovo’s government has moved to ban the use of the Serbian dinar, cutting a key lifeline between Belgrade and Kosovo’s Serbian community. Serbs in north Kosovo have until Feb. 1 to convert their funds to euros, which is the official currency used in Kosovo.
Why it matters: Many Kosovar Serbs earn their money in Serbia in dinars, and claim they had little warning ahead of the change. The move threatens to further inflame relations between Kosovo and Serbia, which failed to normalize relations with each other last year during talks following the installation of ethnic Albanian mayors through widely-boycotted local elections. After facing punitive measures from the EU over the affair, Kosovo’s PM Albin Kurti recently said that he is ready to take steps to return to the EU’s fold — frustratingly however, by assert his sovereignty on basic matters like currency, Kurti risks further alienating his backers in Brussels.
Other trends to watch:
— PM Donald Tusk’s government in Poland sought to ease restrictions on morning after birth control pills last week, which were made prescription-only under PiS. Tusk’s government has also introduced a new bill to roll back conservative abortion restrictions put in place under the PiS government, even though it is unlikely to pass.
— North Macedonia’s Foreign Minister warned on Tuesday that delays in the country’s EU accession are creating opportunities for Russian hybrid warfare to divide its society. Also last week, the country elected its first ethnically Albanian Prime Minister.
— Last week, the AFP shed light on the continuing scourge of femicides and domestic abuse in Kosovo, which the government is trying to tackle with little success. Last year, the police documented 1,100 cases of gender-based violence, which is almost certainly an undercount according to human rights observers.