Last Week in Eastern Europe: Jan. 15-21, 2024
Poland's political war continues unabated, Ukraine shoots down a key Russian spy plane, and Hungary finds new allies in its fight against the EU
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Poland’s new government continued its corruption crackdown against officials from the previous ruling party, gaining praise from the EU on rule of law reform but escalating a growing political crisis
Poland’s anti-corruption bureau announced Wednesday that a former deputy foreign minister from the previous ruling party, the right-wing PiS, had been arrested in connection with a visa scandal as part of efforts by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government to restore the rule of law after years of backsliding under PiS. EU officials stated last week that Poland had met conditions to unlock crucial funds that had been withheld over rule of law concerns — but one of Tusk’s controversial moves, the liquidation of politicized state media outlets, was deemed unconstitutional by the PiS-dominated Constitutional Tribunal on Thursday.
Why it matters: These events followed the arrest of two sitting PiS MPs previously convicted of abuse of power charges that deepened the political war between Tusk’s government and PiS. Tusk’s no-holds-barred approach to reform constitutes a critical test of European states’ ability to recover from right-wing populist rule — but in addition to pitting rival courts against each other, it has also threatened to create a constitutional crisis that will test democracy in the EU’s largest eastern member state.
2. Ukraine shot down a rare Russian spy plane, degrading Moscow’s aerial presence along the war’s southern frontline
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated on Monday that the country’s air force had neutralized a Russian A-50 spy plane over the Sea of Azov, in addition to an Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command center. Russia has reportedly already deployed another A-50 to replace its loss, but because it only possesses eight such planes, this one was deployed southeast of Ukrainian territory over Russia’s Krasnodar Oblast, far from the frontline.
Why it matters: These aerial assets were critical for equipping Russian troops with battlefield intelligence across the southern front in Ukraine, and without them, Russia’s presence in the air and on the ground will likely suffer. This will make it easier for the Ukrainian Air Force to hit back at Russian warplanes, making it harder for Russia to strike frontline cities. Although Ukraine’s counteroffensive seems to have failed on the ground, the AFU has been remarkably successful in degrading Russia’s air and naval operations in 2023. This week, Ukraine’s foreign minister stated that gaining air superiority in the conflict is one of Ukraine’s key goals for 2024.
3. Hungary’s Orbán cemented his alliance with Slovakia’s Fico as EU sought to strip Hungary of its voting rights over Ukraine funding
After a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Tuesday, newly-elected Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated he opposed efforts by the European Parliament to revoke Hungary’s voting rights following its veto of a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine. Fico said he supported Orbán’s position on the aid package, and the pair also voiced their shared opposition to a “military solution” to the Ukraine War and to EU migrant resettlement plans. On Thursday, a majority in the European Parliament approved a non-binding resolution to investigate whether Hungary had breached “EU values.”
Why it matters: With the recent change in government in Poland, Orbán lost a crucial illiberal ally in his years-long fight with Brussels. While Slovakia isn’t exactly an adequate replacement, Orbán’s apparent new alliance with Fico will give him some renewed leverage on the international stage on Ukraine-related issues, especially in light of Europe’s dwindling appetite for continued support for Kyiv.
4. Serbia’s opposition leader suffered nerve damage after being tortured by the country’s secret services as thousands of Serbs marched against last month’s allegedly unfair elections
In his first comments since he was kidnapped earlier this month, Nikola Sandulović, the leader of Serbia’s main opposition party, stated he had been tortured, humiliated, and threatened by Serbian secret service, leaving him paralyzed on his left side with nerve damage. Sandulović had been criminally charged after apologizing for Serbia’s crimes against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo in the late 1990s. In Belgrade on Tuesday, supporters of Serbia’s opposition rallied against the results of last month’s parliamentary election, which was deemed unfair by international observers.
Why it matters: December’s rigged election resulted in a win for the SNS, whose co-founder Aleksandar Vučić has ruled Serbia as either Prime Minister or President since 2014. Vučić has presided over escalating tensions with Kosovo and democratic backsliding domestically during his tenure — two trends which, given Sandulović’s treatment and the nature of the SNS’s re-election, are likely to continue in 2024.
5. Belarus proposed a new military doctrine that would allow for the use of Russian nuclear weapons stationed on its territory
Having previously approved the warehousing of Russian nuclear warheads on its territory, Belarus’s defense minister stated the country would greenlight a new military policy that would allow for the use of these tactical nuclear weapons. The minister specifically pointed to the military posture of Poland, a NATO member, toward Belarus as justification for this new doctrine.
Why this matters: Given Belarus’s provocations along the Polish border last year, this move certainly raises the temperature along NATO’s eastern boundary, but changes little militarily. However, it is yet another step toward Russia’s de facto annexation of Belarus, and theoretically gives Putin further capabilities to use Belarus as a springboard for hybrid attacks against NATO in years to come.
Other trends to watch:
— Polish truckers have lifted their blockade of the Poland-Ukraine border until March 1 after striking a deal with the Polish government, ending months-long delays in aid and goods deliveries. Despite election promises, Poland’s new government stated it would retain the country’s protectionist position toward Ukraine.
— Estonia has cracked down on Russian influence this week, arresting a Russian professor on espionage charges and expelling the head of the Russian Orthodox Church in the country. Estonia, together with its Baltic neighbors, also pledged to build defensive bulwarks that will include bunkers along its border with Russia.
— A second team of Ukrainian investigative journalists reporting on corruption has been spied on for months using hidden cameras and smeared online by an “unidentified service,” leading to fears about a return of aggressive state tactics in Kyiv against its critics.
— An EU official has stated the bloc would raise its ammunition production in 2024 to more effectively arm Ukraine, aiming to produce at least 1.3 million rounds. Ammunition supplies have been critical for Ukraine since the beginning of the war.