Last Week in Eastern Europe: Feb. 5-11, 2024
Zelensky appoints Ukraine's new top general, Poland's government pushes for a wholesale judicial overhaul, and EU states enable quicker military deployment to NATO's east
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Zelensky officially replaced his top general Zaluzhny with Oleksandr Syrskyi, promising a dramatic cabinet reshuffle
After a week of silence on the matter, Zelensky officially dismissed Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhny on Thursday, replacing him with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, who previously led Ukraine’s land forces. Zelensky suggested Zaluzhny wouldn’t be the only one to go, stating on Monday that he was planning a major “reset” of the country’s civilian and military leadership. These moves come as Russian forces continued to push into Avdiivka, the current hotspot of the eastern front, and launched missiles across Ukraine, killing 5 and injuring dozens.
Why it matters: As Ukraine continues to face setbacks in its defense effort, Zelensky has decided to clean house in hopes that a new roster of leaders will change the country’s fortunes. Based on his statements however, he appears less concerned with expertise and more with surrounding himself with people who share his thinking. While Syrskyi has a mixed record and is much less popular with soldiers than Zaluzhny, he is more loyal to Zelensky, meaning that while Ukraine’s strategy may become more cohesive, military morale may well take a hit in the short-term.
2. Poland’s Justice Minister announced plans to scrap all 15 judges appointed by the former ruling party, including on a key tribunal
Polish Justice Minister Adam Bodnar, who was appointed by Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk, stated that the country’s new government would move to dismiss all 15 judges appointed by the former right-wing ruling party PiS, and would also seek to rebuild the heavily politicized yet important Constitutional Tribunal “from scratch.” Polish President Andrzej Duda, who is loyal to PiS, is expected to veto these changes, as he continues to challenge Tusk’s efforts to erase PiS’s legacy.
Why it matters: Under eight years of PiS rule, the party packed Poland’s courts, and especially the Constitutional Tribunal, with sympathetic judges, leading the EU to sanction Poland over rule of law concerns. Reinstating the independence of Poland’s judiciary by rooting out PiS’s influence has been the ultimate focus of the new government’s reforms, and is seen by the EU mainstream as a critical step in bringing Poland back from the brink of autocracy. But doing so will require Tusk’s government to alter the constitution, which will undoubtedly deepen the political crisis facing the largest democracy in the EU’s east.
3. Poland joined the “military Schengen” agreement with western EU states as Romania moved to allow rapid NATO troop deployment
Poland has joined Germany and the Netherlands in signing a pact that will allow for quicker movement of troops across Europe to NATO’s east. The deal, which has been likened to a military version of the Schengen agreement, would also streamline the movement of military aid to Ukraine and the deployment of US soldiers to potential NATO frontlines with Russia. Concurrently with this plan, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis also approved the hypothetical deployment of NATO rapid response forces to his country within 72 hours in case of a threat to its sovereignty.
Why it matters: Over the last few weeks, military leaders in Poland, Denmark, Germany, and beyond have been warning that Russia may attack NATO within 3 to 8 years, urging enhanced European security measures in preparation. Such warnings have been made even more dire by Donald Trump’s statement on Saturday that he might encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who don’t spend enough on defense. Within such a security environment, quick action by European militaries will be crucial to dissuade potential Russian attacks — even more so if future American commitment to European security is in question.
4. Slovakia’s Fico and his allies closed a corruption office and passed a law that could shield ruling coalition MPs from prosecution
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico closed the country’s special prosecutor’s office, which handles serious crimes and corruption, as his Parliamentary coalition approved an amendment on Thursday that could end several high-level legal cases against the ruling party and its coalition members. The law also reduced the punishment for bribery and the statute of limitations for rape. These moves came after warnings from the EU and after weeks of protests by Slovaks in the country’s capital Bratislava.
Why it matters: These reforms continue Slovakia’s autocratic and illiberal turn under Fico, who took office in October 2023, and may well serve to protect his political and business allies from legal accountability. The European Commission stated that it might launch legal action against Fico for these moves, which it claimed may endanger the EU’s “financial interests” in Slovakia.
5. The secessionist leader of Bosnia’s Serbs stood trial for defying the rulings of Bosnia’s internationally appointed peace envoy
After various delays, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik’s trial for suspending the rulings of the international peace envoy in Bosnia began on Monday. Under Bosnia’s unique legal and political system established after its civil war in the 1990s, Dodik could face up to five years in prison for defying the envoy’s rulings. Bosnia’s Serbs do not recognize the current envoy as legitimate, and Dodik’s Serb supporters protested in support of the leader in the court gallery during the start of his trial.
Why it matters: Dodik is the head of Republika Srpska, which makes up one autonomous part of the federal republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For years, he has worked to paralyze Bosnia’s institutions in an effort to ultimately secede from the country and unite with Serbia. His decision to undermine the peace envoy’s rulings are a part of these efforts, and although he was indicted in August, Dodik has since doubled down on his threats, stating in December that he would secede from Bosnia if Donald Trump were to return to office. This would effectively lead to the collapse of Bosnia, and would potentially reignite the unresolved Bosnian War that ended in 1995.
Other trends to watch:
— Polish farmers have again blocked the Polish-Ukrainian border in protest of EU policies on agriculture and the import of Ukrainian goods this week. Videos have emerged of farmers in Poland dumping Ukrainian grain out of transit trucks en route through the country, prompting calls for Polish authorities to take action.
— The EU formally complained that Hungary’s sovereignty law against foreign interference, which was passed in December and set up a powerful enforcement body with few checks on its authority, violates the Union’s human rights laws, and has launched legal action against the country.
— Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić refused to sign an agreement with Kosovo and verbally accosted its Prime Minister at the UN over Kosovo’s ban of the Serbian dinar on Thursday, after the US accused Kosovo of stoking “unnecessary ethnic tensions” by mandating the euro’s use in the country.
— Bulgaria arrested a member of the interior ministry on charges of spying for Russia on Monday.
— Hungary’s President Katalin Novák resigned on Saturday after a scandal in which she pardoned a man for covering up child sex abuse at a children’s home. Hungary’s Justice Minister also resigned over the events. The scandal has shaken the conservative image of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his ruling party, Fidesz.