Last Week in Eastern Europe: Feb. 26-Mar. 3, 2024
France considers sending special forces to Ukraine, Poland mulls drastic measures against Ukrainian imports amid protests, and EU plans to deliver a million shells for Kyiv
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. NATO countries raised the possibility of sending their own troops to Ukraine, with France considering deployment of its special forces
After French President Emmanuel Macron raised eyebrows across NATO by suggesting European countries shouldn’t rule out deploying their own soldiers to Ukraine last week, France’s Foreign Minister doubled down on the idea on Wednesday, stating that NATO troops could be deployed in non-combat roles to support the Ukrainian army. Although Macron’s comments elicited rebuke across Europe, according to reports, European countries are apparently actively discussing such proposals. The French press has also reported that Macron is considering sending French special forces into Ukraine to create a "strategic dilemma" for Russia, although reportedly, covert Western forces are already operating in the country.
Why it matters: Despite being initially dismissed as bravado, Macron’s proposal has moved the Overton window on the range of possible European military support options for Ukraine, especially as future US assistance for Kyiv remains up in the air. Sending active duty NATO troops to Ukraine, even covert special forces, would be risky, and Putin has raised the possibility of nuclear strikes in response to Macron’s proposals (as he has done on numerous other occasions). Realistically however, a limited NATO deployment to secure critical infrastructure, help with de-mining, and effectively create no-strike points for Russia as France has proposed would be unlikely to push Putin toward nuclear war, yet would present a significant obstacle for Russia.
2. Poland’s government mulled closing the Ukrainian border to trade as farmers protested against Ukrainian imports and the EU in Warsaw
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed on Wednesday that Poland was in talks with Ukraine to “temporarily” close its border to goods amid escalating protests by farmers, who have continued to blockade border crossings between the two countries last week and held a thousands-strong march in Warsaw on Tuesday. The Ukrainian side however denied that such talks were underway. In response to the protests, Poland has considered broader bans on Ukrainian imports than those already in place, and is reportedly in talks with the EU on agricultural policy reforms demanded by the protestors. Poland is also considering banning Russian agricultural imports as well, in response to criticism of the country’s one-sided focus on Ukrainian goods.
Why it matters: As the farmers’ protests in Poland have inspired other similar demonstrations across Europe, the Polish government, which had previously signaled a willingness to resolve the issue of cheap Ukrainian agricultural imports, has doubled down on a protectionist stance on trade and agricultural policies. Part of its reasoning is likely due to upcoming local elections across Poland in April, in which agricultural issues will be critical for the ruling centrist party’s success. Yet Tusk’s ongoing overtures to farmers in the face of growing desperation from Ukraine is continuing to damage Poland’s standing with Kyiv and ordinary Ukrainians alike.
3. Europe hobbled together plans to give Ukraine over a million artillery shells as Zelensky appealed to Balkan states for ammunition
Amid reports that House Republicans in the US could take weeks to potentially approve additional aid to Ukraine, European states have put together several strategies which, taken together, could supply Kyiv with over a million artillery shells. A significant portion of these would come from the Czech Republic. Also last week, Ukraine’s Zelensky co-hosted a summit in Albania at which he asked Balkan countries for help obtaining additional ammunition, after previously expressing interest in joint arms production with Bulgaria.
Why it matters: With Ukrainian forces reportedly rationing ammunition in the face of Russian advances in the Donbas and airstrikes that killed 12 people in Odesa last week, resolving Ukraine’s ammunition woes will be crucial in 2024. As future US support for both Ukraine and NATO continues to waver, Europe has increasingly been forced to step up independently to bolster Kyiv’s defense. Yet with a weapons production capacity that falls far short of American capabilities, sustaining initiatives like the ones taking shape now will be increasingly difficult in the long term.
4. Russian-backed Transnistria requested protection from the Kremlin, fueling fears that Russia will intervene in Moldova’s elections
After weeks of overtures to Moscow, the leadership of Transnistria, the Russian-backed, self-proclaimed republic within internationally recognized Moldovan territory, formally asked Russia for protection on Wednesday, but stopped short of directly asking for annexation as had been expected. Transnistria cited increasing pressure against it from Moldova, which is led by a pro-EU government, and claimed without any evidence that it is the target of “a policy of genocide.” Pro-Russian leaders in the autonomous region of Gagauzia in southern Moldova also asked for Moscow’s support amid alleged “oppression” by the country’s government. Moldovan leaders claimed last week that these moves are meant to open the door for Russia to meddle in Moldova’s upcoming presidential vote and its EU referendum.
Why it matters: Transnistria’s assertions echoed similarly baseless statements made by other Russian-backed actors in places like Ukraine’s Donbas which gave the green light for Russia to intervene militarily on their behalf. Moldova likely won’t need to worry about Russian military action in Transnistria because the enclave is surrounded on all sides by hostile territory, and because it had apparently asked for economic rather than military support, at least according to a Russian lawmaker. But the country has been the target of Russian hybrid warfare ever since the invasion of Ukraine as it has moved closer to the EU and NATO, and these latest events signal more intense Russian political interference in Moldova in the near future.
5. The EU’s strictest immigration law went into effect in Hungary, easing deportation of foreign workers and ending family reunification
Hungary’s newly implemented immigration law, which went into force on Friday, is being called the strictest in the European Union, and has abolished family reunification procedures, introduced hiring practices that discriminate against foreign nationals, mandated the deportation of foreign workers within six days after they lose their jobs, ended permanent residency permits, and more. According to Hungarian leaders, the law is a response to rising migration to the country.
Why it matters: Hungary has been facing increasing rates of foreign migration over the last several years via the Western Balkan migration route, in which people have traveled into Hungary from Serbia and Croatia. The aim of most of these migrants however is Germany, and the new immigration law will likely do little to respond to this phenomenon while instead making life more difficult for legal immigrants and guest workers who have made Hungary their home for years.
Other trends to watch:
— On Thursday, Poland signed a $2.5 billion deal with the US to acquire the Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS), an advanced air defense mechanism. Poland will be the only country in the world apart from the US in possession of the system. Also on Thursday, Poland’s defense minister stated the country would launch military satellites for the first time in 2025.
— BYPOL, a Belarusian dissident group based in Poland, announced they are making preparations for a coup against Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. The group has previously claimed responsibility for acts of sabotage against Russian aircraft and railways in Belarus.
— An Associated Press report last week highlighted Serbia’s crackdown on Russians opposed to the war in Ukraine who are living in Serbia, threatening at least a dozen such individuals with expulsion. This comes after Serbia formally protested against Croatian allegations that it is a Russian satellite. Also in Serbia, ruling authorities have greenlit a do-over of elections in the capital Belgrade after widespread accusations of fraud.
— The European Commission unlocked 137 billion euros in funding for Poland that had previously been frozen due to rule of law concerns. The EU also unblocked a much smaller amount of 2 billion euros in suspended funding for Hungary.
— In Bosnia, ethnic wrangling between Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats has undermined a US and EU-backed gas pipeline project that would reduce the country’s energy reliance on Russia, according to the New York Times. Energy is only the latest battleground between Russia and the EU within Bosnian politics, which have been marred by stagnation and ethnic infighting since the end of the Bosnian War in 1995.