Last Week in Eastern Europe: Feb. 12-18, 2024
Ukraine withdrew from Avdiivka amid a dearth of US aid, Hungary's Orbán faced his biggest domestic scandal in years, and Russia placed Estonia's PM on a wanted list
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What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Russia captured Ukraine’s Avdiivka as Biden blamed Republicans refusing to pass military aid for Kyiv’s losses
After months of warfare, Ukrainian forces under the country’s new Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi withdrew from the key town on Avdiivka in the Donbas on Saturday, marking the most significant Russian battlefield victory since its capture of Bakhmut last year. The loss underscored Ukraine’s mounting ammunition shortages as Republicans in the US House of Representatives continued to stifle efforts to pass military aid for Kyiv. Biden blamed Congress for Ukraine’s loss of Avdiivka, but assured Zelensky that the US would eventually send it the long-expected military aid. All this comes as Russia has reportedly used a hypersonic missile that travels at nine times the speed of sound in Ukraine for the first time, threatening to dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to shoot down missile barrages.
Why it matters: In the context of Russian offensives over the last few months, Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka suggests a potentially alarming change in its fortunes along the Donbas front. Without additional robust support from the US, its largest military backer, it will be impossible for Ukraine to resist further Russian advances on the ground and to counter attacks on its cities from the air. Although US lawmakers are considering creative measures to bypass Republican opposition and approve the crucial aid, they are beginning to run out of options.
2. Facing protests, Hungary’s Orbán promised new laws after a sex abuse scandal led to the resignation of the country’s president
In the wake of the resignation of Hungary’s President Katalin Novák the previous week for pardoning a man for covering up child sex abuse at a children’s home, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán promised on Saturday to make legal changes to the country’s constitution. These changes would ban future leaders from making similar pardons, and would include reviews of staff at state orphanages. These moves came amid large protests that have erupted in Hungary in response to his government’s handling of the case.
Why it matters: The crisis presents the most significant political crisis for Orbán since his return to power in Hungary in 2010. In unprecedented fashion, it has alienated key parts of the support base for his party, Fidesz, whose long-running family-focused brand of conservatism is under threat for the first time in Hungary. The country’s opposition have called for Orbán to face consequences personally for the fiasco, and have demanded changes to the way presidents are appointed in the country. While Orbán will likely weather the crisis, the cracks in his popular backing present an opportunity for the opposition to gain support at Fidesz’s expense.
3. Russia issued an arrest warrant for Estonia’s Prime Minister as Ukraine warned that Russia is preparing for war against the Baltics
Russia has issued an arrest warrant for Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on Tuesday, making her the first foreign head of state to be placed on a criminal wanted list by Moscow. The immediate trigger for the move was Kallas’s support for the destruction of Soviet monuments in the country. This came as Ukraine reported “strong intelligence” that Russia is gearing up for war against the Baltic states in the medium-term. Estonia also warned that Russia is preparing to double the number of forces stationed along the borders of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania within the next several years.
Why it matters: While the arrest warrant for Kallas is largely a symbolic measure with little bearing on reality, it is yet another threatening action Russia has taken against Estonia and its Baltic neighbors. Ukraine’s reported intelligence assessment echoes other Western concerns about Russian preparations for an attack on NATO in the next 3 to 8 years, which have prompted Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia to expand their defense fortifications along their Russian borders, and in the case of Latvia, to reintroduce military conscription.
4. Amid America’s uncertain future in NATO, Poland, Germany, and France explored a revival of the Weimar Triangle alliance
The foreign ministers of Poland, Germany, and France met in a Paris suburb on Monday to discuss Ukraine, European security, and potentially reviving the Weimar Triangle, a regional alliance that had for years been effectively defunct before the war in Ukraine. In light of the Russian threat to Europe and Donald Trump’s recent comments about NATO, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made the case for Europe to become a military powerhouse in its own right during meetings with Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron, without needing to rely on the US for assistance. This comes as NATO’s head Jens Stoltenberg announced the opening of a new training center for Ukrainian forces in Poland on Thursday.
Why it matters: Over the last few weeks, Trump’s comments about refusing to help NATO countries, coupled with the US government’s inability to pass crucial Ukrainian military aid, have supercharged European ambitions to become militarily self-reliant. A full-scale revival of the Weimar Triangle as a mechanism for security cooperation would be one step toward realizing this goal, however more concrete measures like major investment in European arms production would be necessary in the medium term to truly reduce Europe’s dependence on American military might.
5. Poland’s PM claimed the previous ruling party used Pegasus spyware widely, as the party mulled replacing its long-time head
Poland’s Donald Tusk claimed he has evidence that the country’s previous ruling party, PiS, used Pegasus spyware against political opponents on a much wider level than previously suspected. PiS had previously been accused of hacking a number of opposition politicians, but the new revelations reportedly include journalists as well. A commission in Poland will begin investigating the matter this week. This comes as PiS, explored potential replacements for its controversial longtime chairman Jarosław Kaczyński, who under the previous government before December 2023, was widely considered the most powerful politician in Poland.
Why it matters: Having faced accusations of using Pegasus for years, PiS may finally face a reckoning for these hacks, which were illegal under Polish law. The investigations will take place against the backdrop of the ongoing political conflict between Tusk and PiS, which includes a focus on accountability for the party’s alleged crimes while in power. PiS’s potential replacement of Kaczyński amid this crackdown and rising public approval of Tusk’s coalition would be a major shakeup on Poland’s right-wing, and would likely usher in a new phase for the party, which remains the largest single bloc in the country’s Parliament.
Other trends to watch:
— On Tuesday, a presenter at one of Poland’s state media channels, TVP Info, publicly apologized to the country’s LGBTQ+ community for years of hate speech against them on the platform under the previous government’s tenure. TVP Info and other state media branches have undergone a wholesale overhaul under the new government after years of serving as propaganda channels for the previous ruling party.
— Thousands of Kosovo Serbs protested the country’s ban on the Serbian dinar on Monday in the northern city of Mitrovica as tensions between Kosovo and Serbia over the move continued to mount.
— The Czech Republic stated it will send 800,000 artillery shells to Ukraine in a matter of weeks, as long as it finds adequate funding to do so.
— Bulgaria has issued a deportation order to an anti-government activist from Saudi Arabia who was seeking asylum in the country. He is likely to face persecution at the hands of the Saudi state once he is returned to the kingdom.
— Poland arrested a man who allegedly planned to commit sabotage in the city of Wrocław on behalf of Russia. Several other Russian agents working to undermine transit and military infrastructure in the country have previously been arrested in Poland since the war in Ukraine began.