Last Week in Eastern Europe: Apr. 29-May 5, 2024
Ukraine received its first weapons from the recent US aid package, Polish farmers ended their border blockade, and Moldova considered using energy to threaten Transnistria
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine received its first weapons from the recent US military aid package, and has started planning for a 2025 counteroffensive
A week since the US approved a handful of critical military aid packages for Ukraine, American missiles, anti-armor rockets, and most crucially artillery shells have arrived in the country, with more equipment well on the way. Buoyed by these and further promised weapons deliveries, Ukraine has reportedly started planning for a 2025 counteroffensive against Russian forces, and importantly, has apparently received some Western weapons with permission to use them to strike Russia itself, according to a recent interview with Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže. However, the full tranche of promised weapons from the US, the UK, and European countries may still take months to get to the front, and US officials have stated that they expect Russia to continue gaining ground in the coming months, as it did last week in Donetsk Oblast.
Why it matters: Given Russia’s recent gains in Donetsk Oblast and its plans to launch a summer offensive, weapons deliveries to Ukraine from the US and Europe will be critical for Ukraine’s ability to limit Russian advances in the coming months. In addition, the apparent green light to use some of these weapons to strike within Russia itself will also allow Kyiv to further degrade Russia’s fuel supply lines and military production capabilities. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s battlefield posture remains extremely difficult, and its situation will likely get worse this year before it gets better.
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2. Polish farmers finally suspended their blockade of the Poland-Ukraine border, although restrictions on Ukrainian grain will persist
After months of blockades along the Polish-Ukrainian border and over a year of tensions between the two countries over grain shipments, Polish farmers finally ended their blockade of the border on Monday. The move came after negotiations with the Polish government and a sizable state subsidy, and was hailed by both Polish and Ukrainian leaders. Nevertheless, restrictions on shipments of Ukrainian grain will continue as a final deal between the two governments remains out of reach, and protest leaders stated that they may resume blockades in the future if necessary.
Why it matters: Cheap Ukrainian grain shipments into Poland have been at the center of a trade dispute between Warsaw and Kyiv since April 2023, and the border blockades by farmers and truckers were the most explosive element of this turbulent diplomatic saga. Not only did the blockade likely delay assistance to Ukraine via Poland, which has acted as the main conduit for ground-based transit into the country since the start of the Russian invasion, but it led to a sharp decline in positive feelings for Poland among Ukrainians this year. The end of the blockade is only the first step in resolving trade and agricultural issues between Ukraine and Poland, however it is an enormous leap forward for repairing damaged relations between the two allies.
3. Moldova considered cutting energy to Transnistria, which could eventually allow it to force the territory back under Moldovan control
Following an increase in its gas links to the international market and investments in energy links to Europe via Romania, Moldovan leaders stated last week that they are no longer dependent on the Russian-backed breakaway state of Transnistria for power, meaning Moldova may be ready to upend a dynamic that has propped up the enclave for decades. Moldova has long been forced to rely on Transnistria due to the wealth of cheap energy it received from Russia, and bought energy from the territory for years. This is now changing, and Moldovan leaders have expressed a willingness to cut energy payments to the territory, which would decimate its state budget.
Why it matters: Given that Transnistria is hugely dependent on Moldovan energy payments, Moldova is now in a unique position to use its newfound energy flexibility as a lever to force Transnistria back into its fold. Even though this would be a messy process that would potentially lead to a collapse of Transnistria social services, creating a humanitarian crisis in the territory, Moldovan leaders appear ready to take such a step to try to extinguish Russia’s decades-old foothold in the country’s territory. The process would not be without its risks though, as Transnistria has recently called on Russia for assistance in the face of Moldovan economic pressure.
4. Czechia and Poland were hit by Russian cyberattacks while Estonia accused Russia of interfering with GPS signals over the Baltic Sea
Czechia, Poland, and Germany were revealed to have been exposed to cyberattacks by the Russian GRU-linked hacking group nicknamed Fancy Bear, which reportedly started interfering with digital state and political party functions as far back as 2023. Also last week, Russia was revealed to be responsible for jamming GPS signals over the Baltic Sea, interrupting air travel from Finland to Estonia and leading Estonia to accuse Russia of violating international airspace rules. The source of the jamming was likely military installations near St. Petersburg that intended to disrupt Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia.
Why it matters: As the war in Ukraine continues to produce long-term impacts on European security, Russian responses to increased Ukrainian counterattacks against its own territory have inevitably started to produce risks for other countries in the region, as the GPS jamming affair has demonstrated. More menacingly though, as the relationship between NATO and Russia has continued to evolve into a semi-permanent state of shadow warfare on the European continent, cyberattacks by the GRU are likely only the beginning — according to intelligence agencies, Russia has started making a more concerted effort to conduct violent acts of sabotage across Europe, as recently thwarted efforts by Russian-linked agents in Germany, Poland, and elsewhere have shown.
5. Poland’s government launched an investigation into possible links between its state oil company and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah
The government of Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Tuesday that it has begun investigating potential links between the Polish state oil and gas company Orlen’s Swiss subsidiary and the Lebanese Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Tusk had previously directed state prosecutors to probe former Orlen CEO Daniel Obajtek on the issue, and prosecutors have now also named the former head of Orlen Trading Switzerland in the case.
Why it matters: This move is the latest in a series of investigations the Polish government has opened into alleged political corruption at Orlen since last year. Tusk has alleged mismanagement of the company under the previous populist government led by PiS which put in place political appointees like Obajtek, whom the new Polish government fired earlier this year. Tusk has previously called Obajtek “one of Putin’s greatest oligarchs.” Although the Polish state has yet to produce concrete evidence of its explosive claims about Orlen Trading Switzerland’s potential ties to Hezbollah, the allegation alone is a significant escalation in its political war against a company that reportedly is still in the hands of PiS loyalists.
Other trends to watch:
— Chinese President Xi Jinping is slated to visit France, Hungary, and Serbia this week during his first visit to Europe since 2019. His visit to Serbia will be a symbolic one, marking the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of Belgrade in 1999, and will underscore China’s increasing antipathy to the NATO alliance.
— The rising star of Hungary’s opposition, Péter Magyar, held a thousands-strong rally on Sunday in Debrecen, a stronghold of support for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, showcasing support for his emergent opposition movement beyond the country’s cosmopolitan capital Budapest.
— The historic Nożyk Synagogue in Warsaw, Poland was attacked with a Molotov cocktail by unknown perpetrators on Wednesday. The act was condemned by Polish President Andrzej Duda and other government ministers.
— The Commander of Estonia’s Defence Forces proposed blockading the Baltic Sea in order to contain potential Russian military moves, saying Estonia has the ability to do this with help from Sweden, Finland, and Poland.
— Lithuania denied claims from Moscow that a saboteur had crossed from Lithuania into Russia with intent to commit sabotage, calling it “disinformation.”
— According to Bloomberg, per capita income adjusted for purchasing power in Slovenia will surpass Italy’s by 2029, and Poland and Lithuania won’t be far behind.