Last Week in Eastern Europe: Apr. 22-28, 2024
The US sent Ukraine long-range missile systems, Poland said it would send conscription-age men to Ukraine, and Lithuania denied it launched an attack on Belarus
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. The US sent Ukraine long-range ATACMS missile systems as Kyiv scrambled to deploy American weapons amid Russian advances
Hot on the heels of the passage of a $61 billion supplemental aid package for Ukraine, the US for the first time sent long-range ATACMS systems to the country last week as part of a total of $7 billion in both short-term and long-term military assistance for Kyiv. The Biden administration had reportedly secretly sent Ukraine ATACMS in March, which the Ukrainian military then used to strike targets deep behind Russian lines on two occasions. This came as Russia continued to advance in the vicinity of Avdiivka, apparently seeking to gain as much ground as possible in eastern Ukraine before the newly-approved American aid arrives on the front in the coming days and weeks, according to Estonian intelligence.
Why it matters: The Biden administration’s delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine came after years of back-and-forth between Washington and Kyiv on the matter, and is a significant milestone in the upgrading of the Ukrainian military’s capabilities. So far, although the systems have only been used to strike Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, it is plausible that Ukraine may eventually use them to strike Russia itself — with or without American approval. At the moment though, it remains to be seen how much ATACMS and other US weapons will change Ukraine’s fortunes, especially as conditions along the front continue to deteriorate for Ukraine and Russia prepares for a likely summer offensive in the Donbas and potentially Kharkiv Oblast as well.
2. Poland stated it will help send conscription-age Ukrainian men living in the country back to Ukraine to serve in its military
Polish Minister of Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated on Wednesday that Poland is ready to help send fighting-age Ukrainian men living in Poland back to their home country to potentially serve in the country’s military, hinting that the Polish government may go so far as to conduct deportations. The Lithuanian government signaled it may be ready to take similar measures against Ukrainian men on its territory. This comes after Ukraine passed a law mandating that men aged 18 to 60 would only be able to renew or obtain passports inside Ukraine itself, prompting long lines and confusion at Polish consulates last week.
Why it matters: With hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men living within its borders, Poland is one of the primary destinations for Ukrainians avoiding conscription at home, and potential deportations of such individuals by the Polish state would be a major policy shift in Poland’s relationship with its Ukrainian refugee population. Ukraine is desperately in need of more fighting-age men to serve on the frontlines, meaning that such a move will likely improve state-to-state collaboration between Poland and Ukraine — however it also has the potential to further enflame public anger among Ukrainians living in both countries.
3. Belarus claimed it intercepted an attempted drone attack from Lithuania, which Lithuania called “nonsense”
The Belarusian government claimed on Thursday that it had intercepted an attempted drone attack from Lithuania “on objects in Minsk and its suburbs,” stating that “radicals” in Lithuania in Poland were building drones to attack Belarus. The Lithuanian military promptly denied the allegations, calling them “nonsense.” The claims come as Poland and Lithuania staged a joint military drill along the strategically important Suwałki Gap, which sits at the nexus of the Polish, Lithuanian, an Belarusian borders. The Belarusian state also prompted evacuations of hospitals in Kyiv, Ukraine last week after officials in Minsk claimed that “terrorists” were being treated there, leading to fears of an attack on Kyiv from the country.
Why it matters: Belarus, whose authoritarian government is allied with Russia, has long claimed that Lithuania and Poland, which host many members of the Belarusian anti-government opposition, are aggressor states seeking to invade and occupy Belarus, however this appears to be the first time that its leadership has asserted that Belarus had indeed been attacked. Although the claim is almost certainly false, it is a major escalation in Belarus’s rhetoric against NATO’s eastern states, and will likely raise the temperature on the ground along its borders with Lithuania and Poland.
4. Slovakia’s government moved to replace a key state media outlet with a nationalist alternative, prompting protests
Slovakia’s populist government led by Prime Minister Robert Fico stated last week that it will abolish the primary state broadcaster in the country, RTVS, and replace it with a new outlet, which the country’s Culture Minister Martina Šimkovičová said will be “national and state-forming” in nature. The new broadcaster’s leadership will be chosen by a council made up of state-appointed members. Slovak journalists working at RTVS protested the move by wearing black on Thursday, after protestors in Bratislava also demonstrated against the measure last month.
Why it matters: Press freedom in Slovakia has had its share of ups and downs since the murder of journalist Ján Kuciak in 2018, which prompted a scandal that forced Fico to resign from his post as prime minister until his return to power last year. Although Fico’s government now claims it is seeking to restore media objectivity with this new change, international groups have stated that this move is part of a long-running effort by the government to undermine independent media in Slovakia critical of its heavy-handed, populist government, and risks damaging freedom of the press in the country in the long term.
5. The EU threatened to freeze Serbia’s EU accession pathway if it continues to block Kosovo from joining international institutions
Foreign ministers from across the EU approved an amendment to Serbia’s EU accession document on Monday that would freeze the country’s membership negotiations unless it normalizes its relations with Kosovo, which would require Belgrade to stop obstructing Kosovo from joining key international institutions. The amendment requires Serbia to adopt the key Ohrid Agreement reached last year between Serbia, Kosovo and Brussels, which Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić agreed to but failed to implement due to pressure from Serbian far-right opponents.
Why it matters: Although Kosovo has been de facto independent from Serbia since 2008, Belgrade has never acknowledge its independence, and Serbian politicians like Vučić have bristled at Kosovo’s efforts to join institutions like the United Nations and the Council of Europe out of fears that accepting such moves would implicitly recognize Kosovo as an independent state. Since the Ohrid negotiations, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo have steadily escalated, occasionally spilling over into violence. Although western actors including the EU have previously sought to coax Serbia and Kosovo into a détente through negotiations, most notably at Ohrid in 2023, this latest move is the first effort in over a year to force Serbia’s hand on the matter.
Other trends to watch:
— British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest ever weapons shipment to Ukraine on a visit to Poland this week, totaling 500 million pounds.
— The case of an Eritrean migrant woman who was forced to give birth alone in the border zone between Poland and Belarus last week has refocused attention on Poland’s migration policy along its eastern border, which has changed little since the country’s new liberal government took power in December. Poland’s “pushback” policy along its border with Belarus has been denounced by activist groups since 2021.
— Two Ukrainian soldiers recovering from battlefield injuries in Germany were stabbed to death by a suspected Russian national in a shopping center in the city of Murnau. The suspect has been placed into custody.
— Péter Magyar, an emergent opposition challenger to Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, led a thousands-strong march in Budapest on Friday calling for Orbán’s resignation. Demonstrations have rocked Hungary over the past few months after a child sex abuse scandal prompted several high-level resignations within Orbán’s government.
— Poland’s parliament officially recognized Silesian as an official regional language in the country last week. Despite long being considered a dialect of Polish, Silesian is spoken by several hundred thousand people in southwestern Poland, and is now only the second recognized regional language in the country alongside Kashubian.
— Fresh after joining NATO earlier this year, Sweden stated it would deploy troops to joint battalions in Latvia.