Last Week in Eastern Europe: Apr. 1-7, 2024
Ukraine hit a drone factory deep within Russia, NATO mulled Trump-proofing and expanding long-term Ukraine aid, and a pro-Russian candidate won Slovakia's presidential election
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukraine hit a drone factory deep inside Russia and lowered its age of conscription as Russia allegedly used chemical weapons in Ukraine
In a stunning display of its new long-range strike capabilities, Ukraine hit a drone factory in Russia’s Tatarstan on Tuesday, some 700 miles (over 1,200 km) from its territory, using a small, remotely-controlled airplane packed with explosives, in addition to an oil refinery in the same region. Also last week, Ukraine’s Zelensky signed a law lowering the country’s age of military conscription from 27 to 25, adding potentially 50,000 new troops to its armed forces. Along the frontline in the Donbas, Ukrainian troops reported that Russian forces had once again started using internationally prohibited CS gas munitions, this time on a near daily basis, having previously allegedly deployed them during the siege of Mariupol in 2022.
Why it matters: The factory that Ukraine targeted was producing Iranian Shahed drones, which have wreaked havoc across Ukraine since 2022. While Russia has stated that Ukraine’s attack on the facility did not disrupt production, which is itself a dubious claim, the fact that Ukraine was able to successfully fly an autonomous aircraft so far into Russian territory unimpeded should raise alarm bells within Russia’s defense apparatus. Although a step in the right direction, Ukraine’s new conscription law is already politically controversial, and will likely only contribute around 10% of the forces it needs to replenish its military numbers on the frontline — nevertheless, at this stage in the war, Kyiv can use all the personnel it can muster.
2. NATO chief proposes a five-year, $100 billion fund for Ukraine as US mulls Trump-proofing a key Ukraine weapons coordination group
NATO head Jens Stoltenberg drew mixed reactions from allies when he proposed a $100 billion Ukraine fund composed of contributions from member states over a five-year period on Wednesday, although NATO members agreed they needed to beginning planning on long-term support for Kyiv. Also last week, the US and its allies considered moving a critical battlegroup responsible for coordinating weapons shipments to Ukraine under NATO’s purview. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, as it is called, is currently under the jurisdiction of an American-led multinational effort that officials fear may be jeopardized by a Trump victory this year.
Why it matters: Stoltenberg’s bold proposal is the most far-reaching attempt so far to create a long-term plan for funding Ukraine’s defense — but because such an effort would require significant political will from an alliance whose members are less than fully united on Ukraine policy, it may ultimately be difficult to realize. The discussions to transfer the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to NATO underscore the alliance’s immense fears about Donald Trump’s potential return to power, but suggest that his power to upset US Ukraine policy may ultimately prove to be more limited than he may imagine.
3. Russophilic populist and Fico-ally Peter Pellegrini won Slovakia’s runoff presidential election
After an initial round of voting in Slovakia last month, Peter Pellegrini defeated pro-Western former diplomat Ivan Korčok in the country’s presidential election on Saturday in what was widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Robert Fico’s anti-Ukrainian policy and closeness toward Russia’s position on the war.
Why it matters: Pellegrini’s win cements the influence of Fico’s populist bloc over Slovakia’s political scene, solidly aligning the country with Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and moving it closer to Russia. Pellegrini’s pro-Russian credentials go years back — an investigation previously found that in the final months of Slovakia’s parliamentary election in 2020, he had secretly asked Russia for help while serving as PM. Slovakia had once been a Ukrainian ally in the early days of the Russian invasion, and its steady turn away from Kyiv since Fico’s win in 2023 is a loss for Ukraine’s diplomatic influence within the EU.
4. Tens of thousands protested against PM Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary at a rally organized by his rising opponent
In the wake of a spiraling corruption and cover-up scandal among Hungary’s political elite led by Viktor Orbán, protestors rallied around political newcomer Péter Magyar in Budapest on Saturday in what he called “the biggest political demonstration in years” in the country. Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s party Fidesz, skyrocketed to prominence after releasing evidence of what he framed as a culture of corruption in Hungary, and has now vowed to create his own political party that will run in local and EU elections this year, bypassing Hungary’s fractured traditional opposition.
Why it matters: These protests are the culmination of an increasingly turbulent few months for Orbán, who has seen loyalists, most notably former Hungarian President Katalin Novák, resign amid a child abuse scandal and ensuing corruption allegations. Magyar’s movement has taken advantage of this political moment to become the most significant challenge to Orbán in years — nevertheless, his chances of dislodging Orbán’s deeply entrenched and increasingly authoritarian party remain slim.
5. Amid a diplomatic crisis, prosecutors in Poland opened a homicide case against Israel after the killing of a Polish aid worker in Gaza
After a strike by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on a World Central Kitchen aid convoy killed Polish citizen Damian Soból, Polish prosecutors opened a homicide case against Israel, while Poland’s parliament speaker called for a war crimes probe into the incident. The crisis escalated further when Israel’s ambassador to Poland Yacov Livne shot back, claiming that suggestions from certain Polish politicians that Israel deliberately targeted the aid convoy were the result of anti-Semitism, leading to denunciations from Polish President Andrzej Duda, PM Donald Tusk, and from across Polish society. Livne ultimately apologized for Soból’s death later in the week.
Why it matters: Although the incident may seem like an insignificant quarrel between diplomats, it marked a potentially important change in the perception of Israel’s war in Gaza among Poles, who had voiced broad support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’s October 7th attack. This wouldn’t be the first turbulent moment in Polish-Israeli relations, which have often soured over historical memory battles surrounding the Holocaust, but it may be the first time that the Polish state has taken such a sharply critical stance on Israel’s conflict with Palestinian groups themselves.
Other trends to watch:
— Poland’s local elections on Sunday yielded results that largely mirrored those of last year’s parliamentary elections, with the former ruling populist PiS taking the largest share of seats while being dwarfed by the combined results from Poland’s opposition parties, which remain likely to retain control across a majority of Poland’s regions.
— Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been hit once again, although both Russia and Ukraine have denied involvement, leading a UN group to warn against further strikes that could potentially trigger a disaster at Ukraine’s largest nuclear facility.
— Estonia has located one million artillery shells that it will send to Ukraine.
— The state auditor in Poland has suggested that former PM Mateusz Morawiecki may be responsible for abuse of power crimes during the COVID pandemic, but no charges have been filed yet.
— Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has signed a law allowing for the recruitment of convicted prisoners to the country’s armed forces, mirroring policies in place in Belarus’s ally Russia.
— Hungary’s Orbán received an award from Bosnia’s pro-Russian Serb leader Milorad Dodik during his visit to the Serb-majority region, and made statements accusing the West of “meddling” in Bosnia’s affairs.
— A report shed light on a network of up to 400 disinformation websites based in Bulgaria that largely aimed to push pro-Russian perspectives on European defense issues.