Last Two Weeks in Eastern Europe: Mar. 11-24
Ukrainian strikes hit Russia's oil production capacity, Putin targets Ukraine for the Moscow ISIS attack, and Polish farmers stage their largest protest action to date
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After a week-long hiatus, I’m back with a two-week roundup. Due to sheer volume, I’ve placed several stories that would have otherwise made it into the top 5 into the Other Trends to Watch category, so be sure to scroll down to check out them out.
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. Ukrainian strikes degraded Russian oil production while Russia pummeled Ukrainian cities and energy sites, violating NATO airspace
Over the past two weeks, Ukrainian missile strikes have targeted energy infrastructure deep within Russian territory, hitting oil refineries at such a rate that they have reduced Russia’s oil processing capacity by 7%. Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes in Russia’s border areas, coupled with new ground incursions by dissident Russian militias from Ukrainian territory, have prompted Russian authorities to stage evacuations and school closures in Belgorod Oblast. Meanwhile, Russia has in turn carried out high-casualty attacks across Ukraine including in Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Lviv Oblast, and energy sites like Ukraine’s largest dam. During a wave of attacks on which a Russian missile again briefly entered Polish airspace on Sunday, prompting Poland to activate its fleet of F-16s.
Why it matters: As Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian territory have grown bolder and more effective, the US has urged Ukraine to avoid strikes on oil infrastructure, claiming they could trigger retaliations and contribute to increased oil prices worldwide. Although petroleum prices have risen by 4% since March, Ukraine’s degradation of Russia’s energy sites could feasibly reduce Russia’s capacity to carry out a full-scale offensive in the coming months. As Russia continues to escalate its air war against Ukraine, incidents like Sunday’s violation of Polish airspace will likely continue, but the lack of stop gaps to prevent accidental escalations when such events take place pose a serious risk to security along NATO’s eastern flank.
2. Putin baselessly connected Ukraine to an ISIS attack in Moscow, leading to Zelensky and European states to hit back
In the wake of a brutal ISIS-K attack on a concert in Moscow on Friday, Putin claimed without evidence on Saturday that Ukraine had made preparations to harbor the perpetrators after the attack. He claimed that the attackers were stopped while trying to flee to Ukraine through Bryansk Oblast — even though such a route could just as easily have led them to Belarus, whose secret services reportedly helped Russia capture some of the attackers. The claims against Ukraine were met with vociferous denials from Ukraine’s Zelensky and confirmations from the US that Ukraine was not involved, while EU states urged Russia not to exploit the tragedy for its own gains.
Why it matters: Fresh off his victory in Russia’s highly orchestrated presidential elections, Putin’s attempt to connect Ukraine to the attack is likely meant to bolster future military mobilization drives in the near term — but looking further down the line, it may help him prime the Russian public to support a years-long commitment to the war in Ukraine, and potentially set the stage for a renewed attempt to conquer the bulk of Ukraine’s entire territory. Putin’s Security Council chairman and attack dog Dmitry Medvedev has already stated that Ukrainian leaders should be "ruthlessly exterminated as terrorists" for their supposed connection to the attack, suggesting the Kremlin may seek to target Ukrainian leaders more directly moving forward.
3. Polish farmers held the largest protests against EU policies to date as the EU prepared to place tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain
Protesting Polish farmers staged blockades across Poland on March 20 in their most extensive protest action to date, with reportedly 70,000 people taking part in various areas of the country. The farmers continued to oppose favorable EU regulations on food and grain imports from Ukraine, as well as environmental policies like the EU Green Deal. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has tried to appease the protest movement while continuing to find a diplomatic solution with Ukraine, reportedly raised farmers’ concerns at an EU summit in Brussels last week. These latest protests came as the EU proposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain imports for the first time in order to prevent further shocks to the EU market.
Why it matters: The farmers’ protests in Poland have been ongoing in some form or another in Poland now for over half a year, and have continued to destabilize both the EU and Poland’s relations with Ukraine. Yet despite the protestors’ claims, a recent report by a Polish financial institute found that Ukrainian imports were not having a significant impact on farmers’ bottom line. Europe’s introduction of tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain would be a significant step toward satisfying a key demand by Ukraine, which previously stated that it would be willing to accept some trade restrictions by Poland in exchange for such a step.
4. Moldova expelled a Russian diplomat after Moscow held elections in Transnistria and allegedly staged a provocation in the region
Russia opened polling stations in the Moscow-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria in eastern Moldova as part of its rigged presidential election from March 15 to 17, leading the Moldovan government to expel a Russian embassy staffer who helped organize the elections in the territory on Tuesday and to summon Russia’s ambassador to the country. Additionally, during the Russian election period, Transnistria alleged that a Ukrainian drone hit a helicopter in the territory, which both Moldova and Ukraine denied, calling it a provocation.
Why it matters: Last month, Transnistria had formally requested help from Russia in response to alleged economic and political pressure on it from the Moldovan government, which Moldova characterized as an invitation for Russia to resume its hybrid warfare campaign against the country’s pro-Western government. Russia has opened polling stations in Transnistria during previous presidential elections, but the current political climate and the ongoing war in Ukraine — coupled with the claims from Transnistria about the alleged Ukrainian attack — made these latest elections in the territory especially inflammatory. Curiously though, despite Transnistria’s pro-Russian character, turnout in the territory for last week’s elections was reportedly the lowest in 18 years, likely signaling a gradual economic turn away from Russia as Moldova drags Transnistria toward de facto closer trade relations with EU states.
5. Europe announced plans use frozen Russian assets to fund aid for Ukraine, while key European security alliances reemerged
While other funding methods remain stalled, the EU announced plans to use interest on frozen Russian assets to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine, while several European Foreign Ministers agreed to allocate 5 billion in new military aid to the country through the European Peace Facility, which reimburses states for any aid contributions they make. Additionally, officials announced last week that half of the million shells European countries have promised Ukraine will reach the country by the end of this month, with Czechia set to deliver 300,000 of these shells. Meanwhile, the leaders of Poland, France, and Germany pledged joint military support for Ukraine as part of a meeting of the Weimar Triangle, a long-dormant security alliance.
Why it matters: As House Republicans in the US and bureaucratic obstacles in the EU continue to pose hurdles to serious military aid to Ukraine in the near term, these newfound creative European efforts to finding funding for Ukraine offer rare, if faint, glimmers of hope for Kyiv’s continued defense. Despite playing a largely symbolic and diplomatic role so far, the revival of the Weimar Triangle could prove to be a powerful vehicle both for providing aid to Ukraine and for maintaining European security goals overall in the long term, especially given the defense agreements that are emerging between the three countries.
Other Trends to Watch:
— Surprisingly, a pro-EU former diplomat Ivan Korčok won the first round of voting in Slovakia’s presidential election on Sunday, triggering a runoff between him and Peter Pelligrini, an ally of Slovakia’s illiberal Prime Minister Robert Fico. Prior to the election, the Slovak opposition had warned that a victory for Pelligrini would lead to further political backsliding and slipping away from the west.
— The US approved $223 million in military assistance to the Baltic states, which are facing hybrid warfare threats from Russia along NATO’s eastern flank.
— The EU has made preparations to greenlight EU accession talks for Bosnia, however with significant conditions.
— Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis launched his candidacy for NATO secretary in a challenge to Mark Rutte, whom most of NATO’s major states already support. Latvia came out against Rutte, saying that eastern NATO members deserve the leadership role in the alliance.
— Serbian President Vučić denied that a major Belgrade hotel construction deal with Jared Kushner is an effort by him to influence Donald Trump. Serbs reportedly have mixed feelings about the deal, which would redevelop a key landmark memorializing Serbia’s participation in the post-Yugoslav conflicts.
— On March 16, Latvia initiated criminal proceedings against Tatjana Ždanoka, an MEP accused of working for Russia.
— In a historic move, Bulgaria announced its plans to seek US assistance in ending its nuclear energy reliance on Russia.
— Construction began last week on Europe’s largest NATO base in Romania.
— Slovenia and Estonia both expelled Russian diplomats this past week.