Georgia's pro-Russian leaders rig its election, North Korean troops deploy to fight Ukrainians in Kursk, and Moldova moves ahead with elections despite risks
October 21-28 in Eastern Europe
I am currently in Georgia reporting on the parliamentary elections there and their aftermath, which is why I’ve published this newsletter on Tuesday this week. Thanks for your patience! You can follow my reporting in Georgia on my socials on Instagram and X.
What You Need To Know:
This roundup combines last week’s top news with important underreported stories
1. After pivotal elections, Georgia’s opposition refused to accept the ruling pro-Russian party’s alleged victory, claiming widespread fraud
In elections that were widely seen as a litmus test for whether Georgia would move closer to Europe or toward Russia, the country’s ruling Russian-aligned party, Georgian Dream, declared victory on Saturday after a vote marred by widespread irregularities, fraud, and violence. Shortly afterward, the country’s opposition, together with the opposition-aligned president, refused to accept the results, alleging a wide-ranging Russian election interference operation to keep Georgian Dream in power. A thousands-strong protest in Tbilisi followed, during which Georgians voiced their opposition to the election results, decried Russian influence, and called on Europe and the West to put pressure on Georgian Dream to step aside.
Why it matters: Although Georgia had long been sliding into Russia’s orbit under Georgian Dream, Saturday’s elections were potentially the nail in the coffin of Georgia’s European ambitions — provided the results withstand challenges from the opposition and a rising tide of concern from European leaders about the voting process. The current situation in Georgia however, in which the opposition along with Georgia’s civil society sector, have refused to acknowledge Georgian Dream’s win, makes a prolonged period of political instability quite likely, during which Russia may well choose to assert itself and protect its proxy in Tbilisi. New Western sanctions against Georgian Dream are also on the table. Whatever happens next will certainly have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to project power across the post-Soviet space, NATO ambitions in the Black Sea, and stability in the Caucasus region overall.
2. North Korean troops have deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast to fight Ukrainian forces, with a total of 10,000 on the way
The US Department of Defense has confirmed Ukrainian warnings last week about deployments of North Koreans to Russia in preparation for their participation in the Ukraine war, stating that while a total of 10,000 await deployment in Russia, several thousand have already arrived to fight Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. Also last week, as battles continued to rage in the Donbas as Russia continued its steady advance westward, Russian forces reportedly captured the contested town of Selydove.
Why it matters: North Korean participation in the war will be a significant broadening of the conflict in Ukraine, and has the potential to have secondary impacts on the Korean peninsula, where South Korea has been engaged in selling arms to Ukrainian allies like Poland. Although the number of North Korean troops slated to be deployed will likely not be enough to meaningfully alter the course of the war on Ukrainian soil, their deployment to Kursk may make it possible for Russia to dislodge Ukraine’s occupation of parts of the Oblast. Using North Korean troops to fight in Kursk may allow Russia to fight off Ukraine’s presence in the region without diverting its own forces from the Donbas, as Ukraine had hoped would take place.
3. Despite mass bribery and Russian interference, Moldova’s president pledged to hold a second round of elections in the country
After Moldova just narrowly voted to join the EU in a pivotal referendum last week marred by Russian vote-buying and bribery, the country’s President Maia Sandu stated she is moving ahead with the second round of presidential elections despite the potential for more interference. Sandu, who failed to gain 50% or more of the vote in the previous round, will be competing in the runoff with Alexandr Stoianoglo, a candidate seen as closer to Russian than the pro-EU Sandu.
Why it matters: Although Sandu is trying to project strength and confidence in the face of the massive Russian influence operation in Moldova by pledging to hold the vote, she is also betting on the ability of Moldovan services and the judiciary to eradicate interference operations that marred the initial election. Although her chances of victory are high, there is also a considerable chance that Russian meddling leads to a win for Stoianoglo, who could potentially impede Moldova’s ambitions to join the EU.
4. Hungary’s Orbán claimed the EU is trying to overthrow him as upstart opposition party gains on his party in polls
Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán, who also made headlines by visiting Georgia on Monday and congratulating the ruling Georgian Dream party after the country’s widely contested election, has claimed that the EU is trying to overthrow his government and install a puppet regime instead, as tensions between Brussels and Budapest on issues like rule of law, Ukraine-Russia policy, and migration continue to mount. Orbán’s claims have come as polls showed the opposition Tisza party, headed by political newcomer Péter Magyar, narrowly edging out Orbán’s party for the first time.
Why it matters: As Orbán’s errant behavior in the foreign policy realm continues to roil the EU, various scandals that have rocked his government this year may be starting to translate into real political gains for his opponents, namely Magyar, who himself left Orbán’s party in the wake of a high-profile corruption case in February. While the longevity of Magyar’s challenge to Orbán remains uncertain, his success so far has shown that the Hungarian leader’s tight hold on Hungarian politics may not in fact be unbreakable — which alone should be enough to make Orbán worried for his future.
5. Belarusian dictator Lukashenko pushes back against suggestions Russia will annex Belarus, stating it would lead to war
In an interview with a Kremlin-linked newspaper last week, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko stated that any effort by his long-term ally Russia to annex Belarus would lead to war, adding that Russian control over Crimea is not necessarily based on any legal foundation. Lukashenko’s comments come in light of leaked documents last year that showed that Russia has ambitions to annex Belarus by 2030.
Why it matters: As a close Russian partner who allowed Belarusian territory to be used by Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022, Lukashenko’s belligerent comments on the matter of Russian annexation may seem surprising — but despite long acting as a de facto organ of Russian state power, the Belarusian leader has in fact also taken steps to shield himself and his government from Putin’s steadily encroaching domination of Belarusian politics. In 1997, Russia and Belarus together established the so-called Union State, which is tight-knit entity that fosters economic and military collaboration, but which has also been a vehicle for Russia to set the groundwork for the eventual annexation of Belarus. Although Lukashenko’s role as a leader is entirely dependent on Russia, he is also keenly aware that long-term subordination to Russia will lead to his political downfall, meaning that he is increasingly sensitive to any efforts by Russia to sideline him and is eager to find any opportunity he can to demonstrate his value as an independent ally to Putin.
Other stories to watch:
— Putin’s Central European vanguard threatens to expand into Czechia (Politico Europe)
— Bulgarian politics remains deadlocked after election (Financial Times)
— Croatia to buy Leopard tanks from Germany in swap for Ukraine (Reuters)
— Over 60 Polish soldiers injured this year stopping illegal migrant crossings at Belarus border (Notes from Poland)
— Teenager Kills Bosnian Policeman In 'Act Of Terrorism' (Radio Free Europe)
— Lithuania’s top diplomat Landsbergis to step away from politics after election defeat (Politico Europe)
— 'We will do our best to accelerate our European path,' Serbia's Vučić says (Reuters)